Bank Central Asia BBCA IJ - Buy - Solid YTD Jul-24 results
BBCA’s bank-only Jul-24 earnings of IDR4.9tr (+1% m-m / +17% y-y) brings YTD Jul-24 headline profit to
FY25-26F earnings adjusted by ~-1.2-0.6%; maintain Neutral
Bank CIMB (BNGA) has a notable position in Indonesia’s SME and consumer businesses, including mortgages, unsecured loans, and auto financing, in our view. In recent quarters, the bank has recorded improved operating results. We have also seen improved asset quality, which led to a lower credit cost (CoC). The bank reported FY24 headline profit of IDR6.8tn (+5% y-y), which was well ahead of our projection. For 2025, management has guided loan growth of 5-7%. It expects NIM of 3.9-4.2% and CoC of below 1.0%. Thus, we adjust our FY25-26F earnings projections by ~-1.2-0.6% and revise our TP to IDR1,850 (from IDR2,200).
Summary of earnings forecast changes
We update our earnings projections for FY25F and FY26F, as well as add FY27F as a new forecast year. Broadly, we have made more conservative earnings projections for BNGA: we reduce FY25-26F earnings by -1.2-0.6%, driven largely by high funding costs (reflecting generally the tight liquidity in the banking system). We project headline profit to reach IDR6.3tn in FY25F (+0.6% from our previous projection) and IDR6.6tn in FY26F (-1.2% from our previous estimate). We expect reported ROAEs to decline to 11.3-11.6% in FY25-26F from our previous estimates of 11.9-12.4%. On the balance sheet, we assume gross loans of IDR229tn for FY25F and IDR240tn for FY26F (-1.5% compared to our previous projections). On the deposits side, we assume IDR274tn for FY25F and IDR287tn for FY26F (+5.2% compared to our previous projections). These bring the bank’s implied LDR to 83.6% for FY25-26F.
Valuation and risks
Our new TP of IDR1,850 is based on DuPont analysis, with key parameters as follows – a risk-free rate of 6.5%, an equity risk premium of 7.80%, a beta of 1.00x (previously 0.85x, due to higher sector risk), and a CAR-adjusted ROAE of 13.5%. At our TP, the stock would trade at a 2025F P/B of 0.8x. We maintain our Neutral rating on BNGA to reflect our long-term view that Indonesia’s major banks will likely continue to increase their market share. Upside/downside risks are better/worsening macroeconomic developments, higher/lower loan growth, higher/lower NIM, and/or lower/higher NPLs. Our preferred stocks in the sector are BBCA and BMRI (both rated Buy).
Year-end 31 Dec | FY24 | FY25F | FY26F | FY27F | |||
Currency (IDR) | Actual | Old | New | Old | New | Old | New |
PPOP (bn) | 10,534 | 11,450 | 9,999 | 12,076 | 11,229 | 0 | 11,645 |
Reported net profit (bn) | 6,825 | 6,279 | 6,314 | 6,634 | 6,558 | 0 | 6,771 |
Normalised net profit (bn) | 6,825 | 6,279 | 6,314 | 6,634 | 6,558 | 0 | 6,771 |
FD normalised EPS | 271.57 | 251.85 | 251.24 | 266.11 | 263.05 | 271.59 | |
FD norm. EPS growth (%) | 5.4 | 16.5 | -7.5 | 5.7 | 4.7 | 3.2 | |
FD normalised P/E (x) | 6.2 | – | 6.7 | – | 6.4 | – | 6.2 |
Price/adj. book (x) | 0.9 | – | 0.8 | – | 0.7 | – | 0.7 |
Price/book (x) | 0.9 | – | 0.8 | – | 0.7 | – | 0.7 |
Dividend yield (%) | 7.3 | – | 7.7 | – | 7.1 | – | 7.4 |
ROE (%) | 14.5 | 11.9 | 12.4 | 11.9 | 12.0 | 11.5 | |
ROA (%) | 2.1 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.7 | |
Profit and loss (IDRbn) | |||||||||||||||||||
Year-end 31 Dec | FY23 | FY24 | FY25F | FY26F | FY27F | ||||||||||||||
Interest income | 22,306 | 24,227 | 23,286 | 24,613 | 25,816 | ||||||||||||||
Interest expense | -8,954 | -10,961 | -9,433 | -9,528 | -10,047 | ||||||||||||||
Net interest income | 13,352 | 13,267 | 13,853 | 15,085 | 15,770 | ||||||||||||||
Net fees and commissions | 3,155 | 3,002 | 3,164 | 3,323 | 3,489 | ||||||||||||||
Trading related profits | 702 | 1,251 | 1,265 | 1,265 | 1,265 | ||||||||||||||
Other operating revenue | 479 | 932 | 750 | 750 | 750 | ||||||||||||||
Non-interest income | 4,336 | 5,185 | 5,179 | 5,338 | 5,504 | ||||||||||||||
Operating income | 17,688 | 18,452 | 19,032 | 20,422 | 21,273 | ||||||||||||||
Depreciation | -563 | -647 | -665 | -688 | -711 | ||||||||||||||
Amortisation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Operating expenses | -1,975 | -2,135 | -3,257 | -3,284 | -3,311 | ||||||||||||||
Employee share expense | -4,947 | -5,135 | -5,110 | -5,221 | -5,606 | ||||||||||||||
Pre-provision op profit | 10,202 | 10,534 | 9,999 | 11,229 | 11,645 | ||||||||||||||
Provisions for bad debt | -2,007 | -1,805 | -2,011 | -2,932 | -3,079 | ||||||||||||||
Other provision charges | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Operating profit | 8,195 | 8,729 | 7,989 | 8,297 | 8,566 | ||||||||||||||
Other non-op income | 162 | ||||||||||||||||||
Associates & JCEs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Pre-tax profit | 8,357 | 8,729 | 7,989 | 8,297 | 8,566 | ||||||||||||||
Income tax | -1,806 | -1,830 | -1,675 | -1,739 | -1,796 | ||||||||||||||
Net profit after tax | 6,551 | 6,899 | 6,314 | 6,558 | 6,771 | ||||||||||||||
Minority interests | -77 | -74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Other items | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Preferred dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Normalised NPAT | 6,475 | 6,825 | 6,314 | 6,558 | 6,771 | ||||||||||||||
Extraordinary items | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Reported NPAT | 6,475 | 6,825 | 6,314 | 6,558 | 6,771 | ||||||||||||||
Dividends | -2,872 | -3,084 | -3,251 | -3,008 | -3,124 | ||||||||||||||
Transfer to reserves | 3,603 | 3,741 | 3,063 | 3,550 | 3,647 | ||||||||||||||
Growth (%) | |||||||||||||||||||
Net interest income | 3.0 | -0.6 | 4.4 | 8.9 | 4.5 | ||||||||||||||
Non-interest income | -6.4 | 19.6 | -0.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | ||||||||||||||
Non-interest expenses | -52.0 | 8.1 | 52.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||
Pre-provision earnings | 11.8 | 3.3 | -5.1 | 12.3 | 3.7 | ||||||||||||||
Net profit | 22.9 | 5.4 | -7.5 | 3.9 | 3.2 | ||||||||||||||
Normalised EPS | 22.9 | 6.3 | -7.5 | 3.9 | 3.2 | ||||||||||||||
Normalised FDEPS | 23.9 | 5.4 | -7.5 | 4.7 | 3.2 | ||||||||||||||
Loan growth | 8.2 | 9.2 | 7.0 | 5.7 | 5.3 | ||||||||||||||
Interest earning assets | -2.5 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.9 | ||||||||||||||
Interest bearing liabilities | -5.4 | 4.6 | 12.7 | 5.2 | 5.2 | ||||||||||||||
Asset growth | -1.3 | 9.0 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 5.4 | ||||||||||||||
Deposit growth | -5.9 | 3.8 | 10.5 | 5.0 | 5.0 | ||||||||||||||
Source: Company data, Verdhana estimates |
Balance sheet (IDRbn) | |||||||||||||||||||
As at 31 Dec | FY23 | FY24 | FY25F | FY26F | FY27F | ||||||||||||||
Cash and equivalents | 5,439 | 3,928 | 3,650 | 6,995 | 7,345 | ||||||||||||||
Inter-bank lending | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
Deposits with central bank | 8,985 | 13,180 | 9,991 | 14,002 | 14,703 | ||||||||||||||
Total securities | 65,009 | 79,960 | 93,810 | 94,350 | 100,600 | ||||||||||||||
Other int earning assets | 17,627 | 7,245 | 7,557 | 17,817 | 19,586 | ||||||||||||||
Gross loans | 190,692 | 205,917 | 217,950 | 228,847 | 240,290 | ||||||||||||||
Less provisions | -13,087 | -11,906 | -10,451 | -9,490 | -9,360 | ||||||||||||||
Net loans | 177,605 | 194,011 | 207,499 | 219,357 | 230,930 | ||||||||||||||
Long-term investments | 4 | 4 | 23 | 27 | 37 | ||||||||||||||
Fixed assets | 9,124 | 8,849 | 8,848 | 8,683 | 8,494 | ||||||||||||||
Goodwill | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Other intangible assets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Other non IEAs | 22,960 | 27,191 | 28,843 | 18,506 | 18,506 | ||||||||||||||
Total assets | 306,754 | 334,369 | 360,221 | 379,737 | 400,200 | ||||||||||||||
Customer deposits | 227,189 | 235,862 | 260,639 | 273,671 | 287,355 | ||||||||||||||
Bank deposits, CDs, debentures | 2,506 | 1,760 | 5,959 | 6,257 | 6,570 | ||||||||||||||
Other int bearing liabilities | 3,654 | 6,444 | 8,562 | 9,411 | 10,345 | ||||||||||||||
Total int bearing liabilities | 233,348 | 244,066 | 275,161 | 289,340 | 304,270 | ||||||||||||||
Non-int bearing liabilities | 28,130 | 40,966 | 31,863 | 33,456 | 35,129 | ||||||||||||||
Total liabilities | 261,478 | 285,032 | 307,024 | 322,796 | 339,399 | ||||||||||||||
Minority interest | 84 | 145 | 197 | 197 | 197 | ||||||||||||||
Common stock | 8,646 | 8,681 | 8,748 | 8,748 | 8,748 | ||||||||||||||
Preferred stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||||
Retained earnings | 33,311 | 36,892 | 40,617 | 44,361 | 48,222 | ||||||||||||||
Reserves for credit losses | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Proposed dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Other equity | 3,235 | 3,620 | 3,635 | 3,635 | 3,635 | ||||||||||||||
Shareholders' equity | 45,192 | 49,193 | 52,999 | 56,744 | 60,604 | ||||||||||||||
Total liabilities and equity | 306,754 | 334,369 | 360,221 | 379,737 | 400,200 | ||||||||||||||
Non-perf assets | 5,386 | 4,077 | 4,316 | 4,531 | 4,758 | ||||||||||||||
Balance sheet ratios (%) | |||||||||||||||||||
Loans to deposits | 83.9 | 87.3 | 83.6 | 83.6 | 83.6 | ||||||||||||||
Equity to assets | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.7 | 14.9 | 15.1 | ||||||||||||||
Asset quality & capital | |||||||||||||||||||
NPAs/gross loans (%) | 2.8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | ||||||||||||||
Bad debt charge/gross loans (%) | 1.05 | 0.88 | 0.92 | 1.28 | 1.28 | ||||||||||||||
Loss reserves/assets (%) | 4.27 | 3.56 | 2.90 | 2.50 | 2.34 | ||||||||||||||
Loss reserves/NPAs (%) | 243.0 | 292.0 | 242.2 | 209.4 | 196.7 | ||||||||||||||
Tier 1 capital ratio (%) | 20.6 | 18.2 | 20.1 | 15.7 | 15.3 | ||||||||||||||
Total capital ratio (%) | 21.9 | 19.2 | 21.1 | 16.5 | 16.1 | ||||||||||||||
Per share | |||||||||||||||||||
Reported EPS (IDR) | 257.62 | 273.77 | 253.27 | 263.05 | 271.59 | ||||||||||||||
Norm EPS (IDR) | 257.62 | 273.77 | 253.27 | 263.05 | 271.59 | ||||||||||||||
FD norm EPS (IDR) | 257.62 | 271.57 | 251.24 | 263.05 | 271.59 | ||||||||||||||
DPS (IDR) | 114.27 | 123.72 | 130.42 | 120.65 | 125.31 | ||||||||||||||
PPOP PS (IDR) | 405.94 | 422.55 | 401.10 | 450.43 | 467.12 | ||||||||||||||
BVPS (IDR) | 1,798.21 | 1,973.25 | 2,125.94 | 2,276.15 | 2,430.99 | ||||||||||||||
ABVPS (IDR) | 1,798.21 | 1,973.25 | 2,125.94 | 2,276.15 | 2,430.99 | ||||||||||||||
NTAPS (IDR) | 1,798.21 | 1,973.25 | 2,125.94 | 2,276.15 | 2,430.99 | ||||||||||||||
Valuations and ratios | |||||||||||||||||||
Reported P/E (x) | 6.6 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||
Normalised P/E (x) | 6.6 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||
FD normalised P/E (x) | 6.6 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||
Dividend yield (%) | 6.7 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 7.1 | 7.4 | ||||||||||||||
Price/book (x) | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | ||||||||||||||
Price/adjusted book (x) | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.7 | ||||||||||||||
Net interest margin (%) | 4.80 | 4.63 | 4.46 | 4.47 | 4.35 | ||||||||||||||
Yield on assets (%) | 8.02 | 8.46 | 7.50 | 7.29 | 7.12 | ||||||||||||||
Cost of int bearing liab (%) | 3.73 | 4.59 | 3.63 | 3.38 | 3.38 | ||||||||||||||
Net interest spread (%) | 4.29 | 3.86 | 3.87 | 3.92 | 3.73 | ||||||||||||||
Non-interest income (%) | 24.5 | 28.1 | 27.2 | 26.1 | 25.9 | ||||||||||||||
Cost to income (%) | 42.3 | 42.9 | 47.5 | 45.0 | 45.3 | ||||||||||||||
Effective tax rate (%) | 21.6 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | ||||||||||||||
Dividend payout (%) | 44.4 | 45.2 | 51.5 | 45.9 | 46.1 | ||||||||||||||
ROE (%) | 14.6 | 14.5 | 12.4 | 12.0 | 11.5 | ||||||||||||||
ROA (%) | 2.10 | 2.13 | 1.82 | 1.77 | 1.74 | ||||||||||||||
Operating ROE (%) | 18.5 | 18.5 | 15.6 | 15.1 | 14.6 | ||||||||||||||
Operating ROA (%) | 2.65 | 2.72 | 2.30 | 2.24 | 2.20 | ||||||||||||||
Source: Company data, Verdhana estimates |
BNGA IDR bn | 4Q23 | 1Q24 | 2Q24 | 3Q24 | 4Q24 | Q-Q | Y-Y | YTD-24 | YTD-23 | YoY % |
Int inc | 5,592 | 5,845 | 6,006 | 6,173 | 6,204 | 0.5 | 11.0 | 24,227 | 22,306 | 8.6 |
Int exp | 2,427 | 2,560 | 2,635 | 2,820 | 2,946 | 4.4 | 21.4 | 10,961 | 8,954 | 22.4 |
NII | 3,165 | 3,285 | 3,371 | 3,352 | 3,259 | (2.8) | 3.0 | 13,267 | 13,352 | (0.6) |
Other inc | 1,114 | 1,515 | 1,414 | 1,448 | 1,275 | (11.9) | 14.5 | 5,651 | 5,433 | 4.0 |
Total inc | 4,279 | 4,800 | 4,785 | 4,800 | 4,533 | (5.6) | 6.0 | 18,918 | 18,786 | 0.7 |
PPOP | 2,323 | 2,561 | 2,674 | 2,499 | 2,179 | (12.8) | (6.2) | 9,913 | 10,181 | (2.6) |
Prov | 192 | 408 | 466 | 449 | 226 | (49.7) | 17.8 | 1,550 | 1,851 | (16.3) |
PBT | 2,131 | 2,153 | 2,208 | 2,050 | 1,953 | (4.7) | (8.4) | 8,363 | 8,330 | 0.4 |
NP | 1,573 | 1,681 | 1,765 | 1,687 | 1,693 | 0.4 | 7.7 | 6,826 | 6,474 | 5.4 |
Q-Q | Y-Y | YTD-24 | YTD-23 | |||||||
Total assets | 334,369 | 332,994 | 346,694 | 354,296 | 360,221 | 1.7 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 9.0 | |
Gross loans | 213,370 | 211,588 | 217,082 | 218,580 | 228,003 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 8.5 | |
Provisions | 12,047 | 11,465 | 11,635 | 11,192 | 10,653 | (4.8) | (11.6) | (11.6) | (8.7) | |
Net loans | 201,322 | 200,123 | 205,447 | 207,388 | 217,350 | 4.8 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 9.8 | |
Total deposits | 235,862 | 248,029 | 249,844 | 255,971 | 260,639 | 1.8 | 10.5 | 10.5 | 3.8 | |
CA | 73,202 | 79,084 | 83,011 | 88,700 | 91,788 | 3.5 | 25.4 | 25.4 | 4.1 | |
SA | 77,431 | 81,027 | 79,874 | 82,032 | 80,279 | (2.1) | 3.7 | 3.7 | 4.5 | |
CASA | 150,633 | 160,111 | 162,885 | 170,732 | 172,067 | 0.8 | 14.2 | 14.2 | 4.3 | |
TD | 85,229 | 87,918 | 86,959 | 85,239 | 88,572 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.0 | |
Equities | 49,193 | 51,215 | 49,568 | 52,037 | 52,999 | 1.8 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 8.9 |
BNGA Ratios % | 4Q23 | 1Q24 | 2Q24 | 3Q24 | 4Q24 |
Asset yield | 7.5 | 7.8 | 7.8 | 7.7 | 7.6 |
COF | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.3 | 4.4 |
NIM | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.0 |
Loan yoy | 8.5 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 6.9 |
Loan qoq | 3.8 | (0.8) | 2.6 | 0.7 | 4.3 |
Deposit yoy | 3.8 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 10.5 |
Deposit qoq | 0.3 | 5.2 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 |
CASA | 63.9 | 64.6 | 65.2 | 66.7 | 66.0 |
NIM | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.0 |
B/S ROAE | 13.0 | 13.4 | 14.0 | 13.2 | 12.8 |
CAR | 24.0 | 24.5 | 22.7 | 23.4 | 23.3 |
NIM | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.0 |
CIR | 45.7 | 46.6 | 44.1 | 47.9 | 51.9 |
LDR | 90.5 | 85.3 | 86.9 | 85.4 | 87.5 |
NPL | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 |
NPL cov | 286 | 250 | 247 | 252 | 262 |
LLR | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 4.7 |
Cost of credit (bps) | 36.7 | 76.9 | 87.0 | 82.5 | 40.5 |
LARs | 11.5 | 11.0 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 8.6 |
LAR cov | 49.3 | 49.2 | 51.9 | 52.5 | 54.2 |
ROAA | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
BNGA - TP derivation | New | Remarks |
Risk free rate rf % | 6.50 | |
Equity risk premium k % | 7.80 | |
Beta x | 1.00 | Previously 0.85x |
Cost of equity COE % | 14.3 | |
Growth rate % | 10.0 | |
CAR-adj ROAE % | 13.5 | |
Target FY25F P/B | 0.8 | Previously using FY24F book for reference |
Implied share price IDR | 1,823 | Rounded to IDR1,850 (down from IDR2,200) |
INVESTMENT RATINGS
A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general.
GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared by PT Verdhana Sekuritas Indonesia (“PTVSI”) a securities company registered in Indonesia, supervised by Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK) and a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).
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ANALYST CERTIFICATION
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Rating Remains | Neutral |
Target price Reduced from IDR 2,200 | IDR 1,850 |
Closing price 24 February 2025 | IDR 1,695 |
Implied upside | +9.1% |
Market Cap (USD mn) | 2,593.1 |
ADT (USD mn) | 0.4 |
M cap (USDmn) | 2,593.1 |
Free float (%) | 7.7 |
3-mth ADT (USDmn) | 0.4 |
(%) | 1M | 3M | 12M |
Absolute (IDR) | -2.3 | -4.0 | -16.5 |
Absolute (USD) | -2.9 | -6.3 | -20.0 |
Rel to Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index | 3.5 | 2.2 | -9.0 |
Erwin Wijaya (erwin.wijaya@verdhana.id)
saya
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