BMRI started 2025 with satisfactory bank-only Jan-25 results— headline profit at IDR4.0tn (+4% y-y). While still in early days, we believe the bank is on track to exceed our FY25F earnings projection (considering that on a consolidated basis we would add 3-4% to the bank-only results). We attribute these resilient results to its relatively stable funding costs despite still stubbornly tight liquidity in the banking system. Indeed, the bank’s cost of funds was 2.6% (+10bp y-y / flat m-m). Post results, we reiterate our Buy rating on the stock with TP of IDR7,600.
Bank-only Jan-25 results summary
Jan-25 net interest income stood at IDR6.5tn (-10% m-m; +11% y-y), primarily from: 1) higher gross interest income of IDR10tn (-6% m-m; +14% y-y), and 2) lower credit costs of 50bp (vs 70bp in Jan-24). These mitigated the higher funding costs of 2.6% in Jan-24 largely due to the still-tight liquidity in the banking sector. Meanwhile, Jan-25 PPOP reached IDR5.5tn (+13% m-m; +3% y-y). Bank-only Jan-25 profit reached IDR4.0tn (+1% m-m; +4% y-y). Overall, the implied balance sheet ROAA stood at 2.5%, with balance sheet ROAE of 18.5%.
On the balance sheet, Mandiri booked loan growth of 19% y-y, which is likely to be highest growth rate among major banks in our coverage. This should moderate to 10-12pct y-y as the year progresses, in our view. We think most of the growth would come from the commercial/SME segments. Deposits for the bank also rose by 15% y-y (+5% m-m), resulting in a CASA ratio of 79.3% (-40bp y-y). This would represent the second-highest CASA ratio for the Indonesia banks under our coverage. We attribute BMRI’s high CASA ratio to the bank’s growing transactional franchise. Also, this translated into a LDR of 93.6% in Jan-25 (+320bp y-y), suggesting still tight liquidity.
Valuation and risks
We derive our TP of IDR7,600 based on a DuPont analysis, assuming a risk-free rate of 6.5%, an equity risk premium of 7.8%, growth of 11.0%, beta 1.05x and a CAR-adjusted ROAE of 19.5%. We also use 2025F book as reference. The implied multiples at our TP are 2.3x 2025F book and 12.4x 2025F earnings (compared to current multiples of 2.5x and 13.7x, respectively). Key risks to our view are worsening macroeconomic trends, unfavorable regulatory changes, tighter liquidity competition (which would increase funding costs), worsening credit quality (which would raise credit costs), and higher opex.
We highlight the upcoming shareholders’ meeting with management changes will be a main agenda item.
Fig. 1: BMRI monthly data
BMRI Monthly IDRbn
Jan-24
Dec-24
Jan-25
M-M
Y-Y
YTD-25
YTD-24
Y-Y
Gross interest income
8,751
10,608
10,000
-6%
14%
10,000
8,751
14%
Gross interest expense
2,874
3,329
3,456
4%
20%
3,456
2,874
20%
Net interest income
5,877
7,279
6,545
-10%
11%
6,545
5,877
11%
PPOP
5,348
4,900
5,522
13%
3%
5,522
5,348
3%
Provision exp
594
(32)
568
-1874%
-4%
568
594
-4%
Net profit
3,834
3,963
4,005
1%
4%
4,005
3,834
4%
Comprehensive profit
3,948
3,556
4,540
28%
15%
4,540
3,948
15%
MoM loan growth
0.9%
2.1%
-0.3%
MoM deposit growth
-2.5%
-2.9%
5.1%
YTD loan growth
0.9%
20.7%
-0.3%
YTD deposit growth
-2.5%
6.8%
5.1%
YoY loan growth
19.6%
20.7%
19.3%
YoY deposit growth
1.5%
6.8%
15.1%
LDR
90.4%
98.6%
93.6%
COF (annualized)
2.5%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
NIM (annualised)
4.6%
5.1%
4.5%
4.5%
4.6%
Risk-adj NIM
4.1%
5.1%
4.1%
4.1%
4.1%
LLR
3.8%
2.9%
2.9%
CoC (annualised)
0.7%
0.0%
0.5%
0.5%
0.7%
CASA ratio
79.7%
80.3%
79.3%
Monthly CIR
35.2%
52.3%
39.3%
B/S ROAE (annualised)
19.1%
18.6%
18.5%
B/S ROAA (annualised)
2.7%
2.6%
2.5%
CASA growth yoy
4.5%
8.0%
14.5%
Credit costs
0.7%
0.0%
0.5%
Loan-to-CASA
113.5
123.0
118.3
Source: Company data, Verdhana research
Fig. 2: BMRI balance sheet
BMRI B/S IDRbn
Jan-24
Dec-24
Jan-25
M-M
Y-Y
YTD-25
YTD-24
Total assets IDRbn
1,665,387
1,877,322
1,923,399
2%
15%
2%
-1%
Gross Loans IDRbn
1,095,766
1,310,779
1,307,185
0%
19%
0%
1%
LLR IDRbn
41,949
38,258
38,497
1%
-8%
1%
-1%
Net loans IDRbn
1,053,817
1,272,522
1,268,687
0%
20%
0%
1%
Deposits
1,210,951
1,326,888
1,394,402
5%
15%
5%
-3%
- CA IDRbn
507,762
551,034
588,706
7%
16%
7%
-5%
- SA IDRbn
457,336
514,539
516,708
0%
13%
0%
1%
- TD IDRbn
245,852
261,315
288,988
11%
18%
11%
-4%
CASA IDRbn
965,099
1,065,573
1,105,414
4%
15%
4%
-2%
Equities IDRbn
242,357
257,126
261,666
2%
8%
2%
2%
Source: Company data, Verdhana research
INVESTMENT RATINGS A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general.
GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER This report is prepared by PT Verdhana Sekuritas Indonesia (“PTVSI”) a securities company registered in Indonesia, supervised by Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK) and a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).
This report is intended for client of PTVSI only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of PTVSI.
The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but PTVSI do not make any representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. The information in this report is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or condensed and it may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report. Any information, valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or targets herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report is published, and there is no assurance that future results or events will be consistent.
This report is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or financial products. PTVSI and its associates, its directors, and/or its employees may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in this report or it may or will engage in any securities transaction or other capital market services for the company (companies) mentioned herein.
ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report and certifies that the views about the companies including their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
RESTRICTIONS ON DISTRIBUTION
By accepting this report, the recipient hereof represents and warrants that you are entitled to receive such report in accordance with the restrictions and agrees to be bound by the limitations contained herein. Neither this report nor any copy hereof may be distributed except in compliance with applicable Indonesian capital market laws and regulations.
