Indonesia’s automotive and transport sector has reported relatively strong results for 9M24 despite weak 4W sales. Adi Sarana Armada (ASSA IJ, Buy), Astra Otoparts (AUTO IJ, Buy), Seatmate Sempurna (SMSM IJ, Buy) and Blue Bird (BIRD IJ, Buy) have beaten our and consensus estimates – benefiting from consumer downtrading and strong market leadership, in our view.
Autos: picking the winners amid downtrading trend
We believe the trend of down trading will remain until the government provides stimulus to the industry (such as tax incentive). As such, we expect companies under our coverage to continue to benefit.
1) ASSA – benefiting from the sales of used cars through Autopedia Sukses Lestari (ASLC IJ; Not rated) – as consumers opted to buy used cars rather than new cars (see our research on used car market’s rising share here).
2) AUTO – benefiting from the delay in purchases of new cars (thus consumers buying after-market spare parts from AUTO),
3) SMSM has also benefitted from parts changes such as filter and radiator, on top of its cost efficiency measures. We note SMSM booked record profit in 3Q24.
Specifically on ASSA, we believe the cost-cutting measures in Anteraja business and also initiatives on logistics have started to yield fruit in 3Q24, given the record profit achievement in 3Q24.
Transport: market leadership matters
BIRD posted strong topline (+13% yoy) and bottom-line (+21% yoy) growth for 9M24, driven by its market leading position in the taxi industry and thus, ability to command price increases. We also attribute the strong results to its strong execution in the non-taxi segment, particularly in the corporate segment, and intercity transport.
Remain Bullish on the sector
Until the government provides stimulus to the sector that could induce production, we prefer stocks that can capture the downtrading trend. Our top picks: ASSA, AUTO, BIRD, and SMSM.
Our TP of IDR1,200 for ASSA is derived using an SOTP valuation, implying a FY24F P/E of 10x.
For AUTO, our TP of IDR 2,650 is based on DCF valuation, assuming WACC of 10.8% and a terminal growth rate of 2.0%. At our TP, AUTO would trade at a 2024F P/E of 7.3x.
We value BIRD using DCF methodology, assuming a 6.5% risk-free rate, a 7.2% equity risk premium, beta of 1.0 and a 1.5% terminal growth rate. At our TP of IDR2,250, BIRD would trade at 11.5x FY24F P/E vs 8.7x 2024F P/E currently, and average of 2015-19 and 2022 P/E at 17x.
For SMSM, our TP of IDR 2,400 is based on DCF valuation with a WACC of 10.7% and terminal growth rate of 2.0%. At our TP, SMSM would trade at 14.2x FY24F P/E.
Fig. 1: Auto and transport players’ earnings recap
Ticker
Rating
Mkt. Cap (IDR tn)
9M24 Sales Yoy (%)
9M24 Profit Yoy (%)
Cons (Above/Below/ In-line)
Verdhana (Above/Below/ In-line)
Remarks
ASII
Buy
206.5
2.2%
0.6%
Above
Above
- Above due to UNTR, fincos and 2W record high profit - 4W remain under pressure
AUTO
Buy
11.9
0.6%
17%
In-Line
Above
- Record high from associate income (+52% yoy, IDR 299bn) - Strong trading business (+10% yoy, IDR 2,4tn) - Manufacturing remains under pressure (IDR 8,2tn, -5,2% yoy)
SMSM
Buy
11.1
1.4%
3.5%
N/A
In-line
- Record high Profit in 3Q24 (IDR274bn, +5% yoy) - Growth driven by filter, trading, and radiator segments
BIRD
Buy
5.2
13%
19%
Above
Above
- Primarily driven by non-taxi segment - Improve margin by increasing ARPV
DRMA
Buy
4.9
-5.3%
-21%
Below
In-line
- Driven by 2W and associate's income - Kyunshin (DKI) robounded with NP +593% yoy due to export growth
MPMX
Buy
4.5
13%
4.6%
N/A
In-line
- Primarily driven by 2W distribution and insurance segment - Multifinance (MPM Finance) net loss driven by weak purchasing power
ASSA
Buy
2.8
5.2%
80%
Above
Above
- Strong 3Q24 driven by rental car growth +4% qoq - decline in used car sales due to accounting treatment in 3Q, expected strong result in 4Q
WINS
Buy
2.3
25%
635%
Above
Above
- Record high net margin - Solid growth driven by stronger vessel utilization and higher day charter rate (DCR)
ASLC
Buy
1.3
36%
273%
N/A
Above
- Solid growth in auction and used car sales due to increasing cost of new cars
Source: Company data, Verdhana research
Astra International (ASII IJ; Buy): Driven by record profit from UNTR, Fincos, and AHM
ASII reported 9M24 results with revenue of IDR 246tn, up +2.2% yoy, while NPAT reached IDR 25.8tn, up +0.6% yoy, above both our and Bloomberg consensus estimates. The weak performance of the 4W segment was offset by strong contributions from Fincos and UNTR (United Tractors, Not rated). Associates’ income, which came in at IDR 7.7tn (+7% yoy), therefore provided significant support to the bottom line and somewhat offset ongoing challenges in the 4W segment. The auto segment profit was down 7% yoy. 2W profit was up +20% yoy to IDR5tn, while 4W profit declined 4% yoy to IDR 2.4tn. The financial services segment posted record-high NPAT growth of +6.4% yoy to IDR 6.2 tn, driven by strong demand for vehicle financing. UNTR also made record NPAT on improved performance across its subsidiaries. Associates' income reached a high net profit backed by the record profit of Astra Honda Motor (unlisted)partly driven by consumer downtrading from LCGC into high-end 2W. Our Buy rating continues to be underpinned by the diversified business model of ASII, given its strong positioning for growth amid sector shifts.
Fig. 2: ASII results table
ASII IJ IDRbn
2Q23
3Q23
2Q24
3Q24
qoq%
yoy%
9M23
9M24
yoy%
% Ours
% Cons
Revenue
79,413
78,520
78,758
86,362
10%
10%
240,913
246,329
2.2%
79%
80%
Auto
31,533
33,438
30,811
34,525
12%
3.3%
99,162
99,529
0.4%
UNTR
33,788
28,921
32,102
35,044
9.2%
21%
97,598
99,558
2.0%
AALI
4,630
6,291
5,513
5,974
8.4%
-5.0%
15,682
16,287
3.9%
Finco
7,352
7,730
8,136
8,592
5.6%
11%
21,983
24,504
11%
Others
2,110
2,140
2,196
2,227
1.4%
4.1%
6,488
6,451
-0.6%
GP
18,919
16,954
18,015
19,052
5.8%
12%
53,587
54,652
2.0%
76%
81%
Associates' income
2,136
2,634
2,400
2,749
15%
4.4%
7,249
7,758
7.0%
EBIT
11,940
9,713
10,694
10,924
2.2%
12%
32,439
31,772
-2.1%
83%
84%
Auto
674
874
313
515
65%
-41%
2,507
1,348
-46%
UNTR
8,446
5,545
7,116
7,147
0.4%
29%
21,200
20,856
-1.6%
AALI
43
67
62
69
11%
3.0%
136
159
17%
Finco
2,041
2,128
2,212
2,231
0.9%
4.8%
6,016
6,643
10%
Others
736
1,099
991
962
-2.9%
-12%
2,580
2,766
7.2%
EBITDA
15,631
13,556
15,341
15,713
2%
16%
43,599
45,770
5.0%
89%
89%
NPATMI
8,730
8,242
8,392
9,998
19%
21%
25,691
25,854
0.6%
83%
86%
Auto
2,667
3,474
2,783
2,964
6.5%
-15%
9,167
8,497
-7.3%
UNTR
3,614
2,545
3,057
3,723
22%
46%
9,431
9,571
1.5%
AALI
114
345
215
239
11%
-31%
638
638
0.0%
Finco
1,967
2,031
2,030
2,114
4.1%
4.1%
5,857
6,230
6.4%
Others
368
(153)
307
958
212%
-726%
598
918
54%
Margins %
2Q23
3Q23
2Q24
3Q24
9M23
9M24
GP
24%
22%
23%
22%
22%
22%
Auto
11%
11%
11%
11%
11%
11%
UNTR
30%
24%
27%
25%
26%
26%
AALI
11%
15%
13%
12%
12%
12%
Finco
55%
56%
53%
55%
55%
55%
EBIT %
15%
12%
14%
13%
13%
13%
Auto
2.1%
2.6%
1.0%
1.5%
2.5%
1.4%
UNTR
25%
19%
22%
20%
22%
21%
AALI
0.9%
1.1%
1.1%
1.2%
0.9%
1.0%
Finco
28%
28%
27%
26%
27%
27%
NP
11%
10%
11%
12%
11%
10%
Source: Company data, Verdhana research
Fig. 3: ASII auto segment details
Autos segment - Rp bn
2Q23
3Q23
2Q24
3Q24
qoq%
yoy%
9M23
9M24
yoy%
Total autos
31,533
33,438
30,811
34,525
12%
3.3%
99,162
99,529
0.4%
4W
18,586
21,030
18,649
20,715
11%
-1.5%
60,465
59,717
-1.2%
2W
8,092
7,755
7,296
8,631
18%
11.3%
24,186
24,882
2.9%
Parts
4,855
4,653
4,866
5,179
6.4%
11.3%
14,512
14,929
2.9%
Fincos
7,352
7,730
8,136
8,592
6%
11.2%
21,983
24,504
11%
NPAT - total
2,667
3,474
2,783
2,964
6.5%
-14.7%
9,167
8,497
-7.3%
4W
1,032
1,424
955
545
-43%
-62%
3,667
2,390
-35%
2W
1,290
1,692
1,562
2,027
30%
20%
4,453
5,045
13%
Parts
344
358
266
391
47%
9.5%
1,048
1,062
1.4%
Fincos
1,967
2,031
2,030
2,114
4.1%
4.1%
5,857
6,230
6.4%
NPM - autos
8.5%
10.4%
9.0%
8.6%
9.2%
8.5%
4W
5.6%
6.8%
5.1%
2.6%
6.1%
4.0%
2W
16%
22%
21%
23%
18%
20%
Parts
7.1%
7.7%
5.5%
7.6%
7.2%
7.1%
Fincos
27%
26%
25%
25%
26.6%
25.4%
Associates income
2,136
2,634
2,400
2,749
15%
4.4%
7,249
7,758
7.0%
AHM - 2W (50% owned)
Revenues
21,566
23,608
21,982
26,542
21%
12%
71,515
73,144
2.3%
NPAT
2,117
2,608
2,460
3,049
24%
17%
7,025
7,900
12%
NPM %
10%
11%
11%
11%
9.8%
10.8%
ASII portion
1,078
1,269
1,277
1,497
17%
18.0%
3,464
3,891
12%
ADM - 4W (32% owned)
Revenues
16,946
19,150
14,811
17,067
15.2%
-11%
58,435
47,820
-18%
NPAT
278
1,082
919
822
-11%
-24%
2,278
2,618
15%
NPM %
1.6%
5.7%
6.2%
4.8%
3.9%
5.5%
ASII portion
92
332
272
272
0%
-18%
722
842
17%
ADM + AHM profit
1,170
1,601
1,549
1,769
14.2%
10%
4,186
4,733
13%
ADM + AHM % of asso inc
55%
61%
65%
64%
58%
61%
Source: Company data, Verdhana research
Fig. 4: ASII revenue growth (%) and margin (%)
Source: Company data, Verdhana research
Fig. 5: ASII- Revenue, EBIT, and NPAT trend by segment
Source: Company data, Verdhana research
Fig. 6: ASII – Profit breakdown in autos segment
Source: Company data, Verdhana research
Astra Otopars (AUTO IJ, Buy): Record associates' income - Beneficiary of downtrading
AUTO delivered robust 9M24 results, with NPAT up +17% yoy to IDR1.3tn, in line with the Bloomberg consensus and ahead of our estimate, underpinned by strong growth in both the trading segment and associates' income. The manufacturing segment remained under pressure, with 9M24 revenue at IDR 8.2tn versus IDR 8.6tn in 9M23 (-5.2% yoy). Trading revenue was up by +10% yoy to IDR 7tn, while GP stood at IDR 1.6tn (+9% yoy). Meanwhile, the revenue of the manufacturing segment declined 5.2% yoy to IDR 8.2tn; however, GP for manufacturing fell 20% yoy to IDR 657bn. Associates' income reached a record high of IDR 748bn, up 13% yoy, driven by export growth, which in turn gave substantial support to AUTO's bottom line. This strength in both the trading and associates' segments reinforces our Buy rating.
Fig. 7: AUTO IJ – Results
AUTO IJ (IDRbn)
2Q23
3Q23
2Q24
3Q24
y-y%
q-q%
9M23
9M24F
y-y%
% Ours
% Cons
Revenue
4,409
4,702
4,597
4,972
5.7%
8.2%
14,085
14,167
0.6%
78%
72%
Trading
2,111
2,183
2,394
2,407
10%
0.5%
6,429
7,077
10%
Manufacturing
2,630
2,884
2,565
2,979
3.3%
16%
8,684
8,235
-5.2%
Elimination
(332)
(365)
(362)
(414)
13%
14%
(1,028)
(1,145)
11%
GP
683
790
700
802
1.6%
15%
2,273
2,237
-2%
80%
67%
Trading
497
503
550
568
13%
3.3%
1,507
1,638
9%
Manufacturing
207
309
164
258
-17%
57%
826
657
-20%
Elimination
(21)
(23)
(14)
(24)
na.
na.
(60)
(59)
3%
Associates' income
175
247
196
299
21%
52%
662
748
13%
EBIT
244
333
222
303
-8.9%
37%
852
793
-7%
83%
68%
EBITDA
364
453
349
434
-4.1%
24%
1,215
1,176
-3%
80%
68%
NPAT
369
510
539
515
0.9%
-4.5%
1,312
1,528
17%
89%
78%
Core Earnings
369
481
375
519
7.9%
38%
1,283
1,369
6.7%
80%
70%
Margins %
2Q23
3Q23
2Q24
3Q24
9M23
9M24F
GP
15%
17%
15%
16%
16%
16%
Trading
24%
23%
23%
24%
23%
23%
Manufacturing
7.9%
11%
6.4%
8.7%
9.5%
8.0%
EBIT
5.5%
7.1%
4.8%
6.1%
6.1%
5.6%
EBITDA
8.3%
9.6%
7.6%
8.7%
8.6%
8.3%
Core earnings margin
8.4%
10%
8.2%
10%
NP
8.4%
11%
12%
10%
9.3%
11%
Bal. sheet Rp bn
2Q23
3Q23
2Q24
3Q24
Cash
2,602
3,305
3,127
3,728
Debt
507
470
527
531
Net debt (cash)
(2,096)
(2,834)
(2,599)
(3,196)
Equity
13,435
13,975
14,841
15,395
Net gearing (x)
(0.16x)
(0.20x)
(0.18x)
(0.21x)
ROE TTM%
12.6%
12.9%
13.8%
13.4%
Source: Company data, Verdhana research
Fig. 8: AUTO IJ - EBIT (IDR bn, Trading and Manufacturing)
Source: Company data, Verdhana research
Selamat Sempurna (SMSM IJ, Buy): Record profit in 3Q24
SMSM delivered robust 9M24 results, with revenue growing +1.4% yoy to IDR3.8tn and NPAT rising +4.5% yoy to IDR 720bn, a record quarterly high and in line with our estimates. The growth came from solid performances across the filter, trading, and radiator segments. The filter segment recorded revenue of IDR 2.8tn (+4.1% yoy), while the trading segment booked revenue of IDR 1.2tn (+11% yoy). Revenue for the radiator segment grew the most, reaching IDR 410bn (+24% yoy). SMSM's earnings stability supports our Buy rating.
Fig. 9: SMSM IJ - Results
SMSM IJ (IDRbn)
2Q23
3Q23
2Q24
3Q24
q-q%
y-y%
9M23
9M24
y-y%
Ve
% Ours
Revenue
1,202
1,283
1,194
1,468
23%
14%
3,764
3,818
1.4%
5,503
69%
Filter
842
952
879
1,077
22%
13%
2,723
2,835
4.1%
Radiator
113
119
126
161
28%
35%
331
410
24%
Trading
346
358
385
434
13%
21%
1,073
1,187
11%
Body maker
104
79
66
79
20%
-0.1%
271
198
-27%
Others
52
64
47
63
34%
-0.2%
180
161
-11%
GP
413
437
417
534
28%
22%
1,287
1,360
5.7%
1,835
74%
Filter
234
267
240
321
34%
20%
759
791
4.1%
Radiator
33
39
45
56
26%
46%
102
149
46%
Trading
103
109
121
136
13%
25%
321
376
17%
Body maker
23
6.5
5.3
10
88%
54%
48
17
-64%
Others
12
15
8.7
15
75%
0.2%
41
32
-21%
EBIT
291
352
307
374
22%
6.2%
941
965
2.6%
1,346
72%
EBITDA
322
375
340
409
20%
9.1%
1,023
1,064
4.0%
1,507
71%
NPAT
208
261
233
274
18%
4.8%
691
722
4.5%
982
74%
Margins %
2Q23
3Q23
2Q24
3Q24
9M23
9M24
GP
34%
34%
35%
36%
34%
36%
Filter
28%
28%
27%
30%
28%
28%
Radiator
29%
32%
36%
35%
31%
36%
Trading
30%
30%
31%
31%
30%
32%
Body maker
23%
8%
8%
13%
18%
9%
Others
24%
24%
19%
24%
23%
20%
EBIT
24%
27%
26%
26%
25%
25%
EBITDA
27%
29%
29%
28%
27%
28%
NP
17%
20%
20%
19%
18%
19%
Bal. sheet Rp bn
2Q23
3Q23
2Q24
3Q24
Cash
951
1,066
1,154
966
Debt
227
204
132
148
Net debt (cash)
(724)
(861)
(1,022)
(818)
Equity
3,420
3,552
3,955
3,831
MI
407
412
427
445
Net gearing (x)
(0.21)
(0.24)
(0.26)
(0.21)
ROE TTM%
30%
29%
27%
29%
Source: Company data, Verdhana research
Fig. 10: SMSM IJ – Revenue and NPAT trend
Source: Company data, Verdhana research
Blue Bird (BIRD IJ, Buy): Strong 3Q24 driven by non-taxi segment growth and higher ARPV
BIRD delivered solid 9M24 results, with revenue rising by +13% yoy to IDR 3.7tn, driven mainly by a strong performance in the non-taxi segment, which exceeded both Bloomberg consensus and our estimates. NPAT increased by +21% yoy to IDR 436bn, backed by higher gross and operating profit margins. Meanwhile, non-taxi surged significantly by +32% yoy to IDR 1tn, driven by Golden Bird and intercity transport services. The revenue from the taxi segment grew modestly by only +7.4% yoy to IDR 2.6tn. Gross profit rose +15% yoy to IDR 1.2tn. The overall gross profit margin reached 32%. Overall, the company's efforts to raise ARPV continue to bear fruit as far as profitability is concerned and support our Buy rating.
Fig. 11: BIRD IJ – Results
BIRD IJ (Rp bn)
2Q23
3Q23
2Q24
3Q24
q-q%
y-y%
9M23
9M24
y-y%
% Ve
% Cons
Revenue
1,046
1,137
1,207
1,336
11%
17%
3,229
3,664
13%
77%
75%
Taxi
781
847
875
895
2.4%
5.7%
2,419
2,598
7.4%
Non-taxi
265
291
333
441
32%
52%
810
1,066
32%
GP
337
362
393
441
12%
22%
1,026
1,180
15%
77%
77%
Taxi
223
243
260
246
-5.1%
1.4%
686
738
7.6%
Non-taxi
113
120
129
189
46%
57%
339
429
26%
EBIT
150
131
158
186
18%
42%
426
457
7.2%
75%
75%
EBITDA
284
269
294
317
7.7%
18%
829
863
4.0%
87%
76%
Pre-tax
174
130
188
223
19%
71%
474
560
18%
87%
83%
NP
137
101
151
170
13%
68%
360
436
21%
82%
82%
Margins %
2Q23
3Q23
2Q24
3Q24
9M23
9M24
GP
32%
32%
33%
33%
32%
32%
Taxi
29%
29%
30%
28%
28%
28%
Non-taxi
43%
41%
39%
43%
42%
40%
EBIT
14%
11%
13%
14%
13%
12%
EBITDA
27%
24%
24%
24%
26%
24%
NP
13%
8.9%
12%
13%
11%
12%
ROE %
8.9%
8.4%
8.3%
9.2%
9.7%
10%
Bal. sheet Rp bn
2Q23
3Q23
2Q24
3Q24
Cash
941
862
1,169
1,010
Debt
777
866
970
1,063
Net debt (cash)
(164)
4
(199)
52
Equity
5,328
5,435
5,556
5,729
Net gearing (cash)
net cash
0.0
net cash
0.0
Source:
Company & Verdhana research
Source: Company data, Verdhana research
Fig. 12: BIRD IJ – Taxi operations
Source: Company data, Verdhana research
Dharma Polimetal (DRMA IJ, Buy): Strong 3Q24 driven by 2W and associates
DRMA posted a strong 9M24, where topline declined 5.3% yoy to IDR 4tn and NPAT fell 11% yoy to IDR 412bn. However, the 3Q24 performance was encouraging, with top line +20% qoq and bottom-line +69% qoq, on the back of robust 2W revenue growth of +19% yoy to IDR 879bn, while the 4W segment remained weak (-33% yoy but +21% qoq) in 3Q24. The results were below the Bloomberg consensus but in line with our estimates. Kyungshin (DRMA's associate)also had a significant rebound, where NP grew +593% yoy (export-led) in 3Q24. The robust earnings in 3Q24 present a promising outlook for further growth for DRMA, in our view.
Fig. 13: DRMA IJ – Results
Source: Company data, Verdhana research
Mitra Pinasthika Mustika (MPMX IJ, rating): Beneficiary of downtrading but profitability impacted by multifinance
MPMX posted strong 9M24 revenue growth of +13% yoy to IDR 11.8tn driven by strong contributions from the 2W distribution and insurance segments of +13% yoy and +15% yoy, respectively, in line with our estimates. NPAT reached IDR 441bn, up 4.5% from the previous year. MPM Rent stood at IDR 1tn, increasing by 4.6% yoy. For the multifinance segment, JACCS MPM Finance posted revenue of IDR 1tn, decreasing by 16% YoY, with a net loss of IDR 72bn due to lower purchasing power. Nonetheless, such diversification for MPMX remains a source of stability. Thus, we maintain our Buy rating for this stock.
Fig. 14: MPMX IJ – Results
IDR bn
2Q23
3Q23
4Q23
1Q24
2Q24
3Q24
y-y%
q-q%
9M23
9M24
Ve
y-y%
% Ours
Revenue
3,309
3,413
3,351
3,883
3,806
4,153
22%
9.1%
10,508
11,842
14,544
13%
81%
2W distribution
3,245
3,341
3,272
3,815
3,723
4,083
22%
10%
10,308
11,620
13%
Insurance
66
66
85
68
88
73
9.9%
-18%
200
230
15%
Others
(2)
5
(6)
-
(5)
(2)
-147%
-55%
(1)
(7)
na.
GP
294
303
284
347
347
355
17%
2.2%
931
1,049
1,245
13%
84%
2W distribution
254
265
240
305
295
315
19%
6.5%
820
916
12%
Insurance
41
33
50
40
55
41
24%
-26%
111
136
23%
Others
(2)
5
(6)
2
(4)
(1)
-123%
-71%
(0)
(3)
na.
EBIT
115
158
79
182
175
138
-13%
-21%
398
496
529
24%
94%
EBITDA
177
203
127
220
214
165
-19%
-23%
564
599
573
6.2%
105%
NPAT
133
157
104
165
163
114
-28%
-30%
422
441
562
4.5%
78%
2W distribution
120
134
106
163
157
163
22%
4.0%
408
483
18%
Insurance
11
13
15
14
19
14
11%
-22%
32
47
48%
Others
2
11
(17)
(12)
(13)
(64)
na.
na.
(18)
(89)
na.
Non-operational items:
Gain (loss) from disc. operation
1
0
0
1
0
1
1
2
Core profit
133
157
103
164
132
141
-10%
7.1%
420
436
562
3.8%
78%
Subsidiaries
2Q23
3Q23
4Q23
1Q24
2Q24
3Q24
y-y%
q-q%
9M23
9M24
y-y%
MPM Rent (50% owned by 2Q22)
Revenue
330
329
358
366
336
338
3.0%
0.8%
994
1,040
4.6%
Net profit
28
20
22
20
23
14
-31%
-39%
70
57
-18%
MPMX's share of profit
14
10
11
10
12
7
-31%
-39%
35
29
-18%
JACCS MPM Finance (40% owned)
Revenue
403
411
390
375
335
344
-16%
2.7%
1,214
1,054
-13%
Net profit
14
(16)
(14)
(53)
(57)
(70)
na.
-23%
14
(180.9)
na.
MPMX's share of profit
6
(6)
(5)
(21)
(23)
(28)
na.
-23%
6
(72.3)
na.
Margin, %
2Q23
3Q23
4Q23
1Q24
2Q24
3Q24
9M23
9M24
GP
8.9%
8.9%
8.5%
8.9%
9.1%
8.5%
8.9%
8.9%
EBITDA
5.4%
5.9%
3.8%
5.7%
5.6%
4.0%
5.4%
5.1%
NPAT
4.0%
4.6%
3.1%
4.2%
4.3%
2.7%
4.0%
3.7%
Core profit
4.0%
4.6%
3.1%
4.2%
3.5%
3.4%
4.0%
3.7%
2W distribution
3.7%
4.0%
3.2%
4.3%
4.2%
4.0%
4.0%
4.2%
Insurance
17%
20%
18%
21%
21%
20%
16%
21%
Transportation (MPM Rent)
8.5%
6.2%
6.1%
5.5%
6.9%
4.2%
7.0%
5.5%
JACCS MPM Finance
1.4%
-1.5%
-1.4%
-5.7%
-6.8%
-8.2%
0.5%
-6.9%
Balance sheet IDR bn
2Q23
3Q23
4Q23
1Q24
2Q24
3Q24
Cash
1,541
1,592
1,712
2,150
1,708
1,797
Total debt
12
13
16
22
21
18
Net debt (cash)
(1,530)
(1,579)
(1,696)
(2,128)
(1,688)
(1,778)
Equity
5,851
6,009
6,112
6,285
5,950
6,065
Inventory days
17.7
13.5
10.9
8.6
11.1
11.6
Source: Company data, Verdhana research
ASSA IJ: Highest-ever quarterly net profit
ASSA delivered robust 9M24 results, with the bottom line growing +86% yoy to IDR213bn and top line growing 5.2% yoy to IDR3.6tn, driven by growth and cost efficiencies across all business segments, beating both Bloomberg consensus and our estimates. Revenue for 3Q24 rose +19% yoy to IDR 1.3tn driven by growth in the rental car business. Revenue at ASSA Rent remained flat at IDR 518bn, up +2.8% yoy. However, EBITDA rose +58% yoy to IDR 409bn this quarter, while the gross profit margin improved to 31% from 28% in 2Q24. ROE also improved to 7.6% from 5.9% in 2Q24. We believe ASSA's end-to-end logistics solutions are bearing fruit and further client growth is expected in the upcoming quarters. We maintain our Buy rating.
Fig. 15: ASSA IJ – Results
ASSA IJ (IDRbn)
2Q23
3Q23
4Q23
1Q24
2Q24
3Q24
q-q%
y-y%
9M23
9M24
y-y%
% Ours
% Cons
Revenue
1,243
1,071
978
1,182
1,186
1,274
7.4%
19%
3,460
3,641
5.2%
79%
78%
ASSA Rent
517
504
505
505
498
518
4.0%
2.8%
1,515
1,522
0.5%
Used car sales
361
289
346
373
339
203
-40%
-30%
917
914
-0.3%
Logistics
534
451
413
510
504
359
-29%
-20%
1,556
1,373
-12%
Elimination
(169)
(172)
(287)
(206)
(155)
194
na.
na.
(528)
(167)
68%
GP
271
271
271
339
337
400
19%
47%
840
1,077
28%
81%
83%
ASSA Rent
140
143
146
139
134
145
8.7%
2.0%
437
418
-4.4%
Used car sales
82
94
98
120
105
111
5.1%
18%
259
336
30%
Logistics
54
38
51
97
96
141
46%
272%
150
333
122%
Elimination
(5)
(3)
(24)
(16)
2
3
58%
-218%
(7)
(10)
46%
EBIT
70
65
54
164
148
209
41%
221%
241
521
116%
85%
96%
ASSA Rent
80
81
70
81
72
82
14%
0.9%
263
235
-11%
Used car sales
43
47
48
75
52
59
13%
24%
134
186
38%
Logistics
(37)
(48)
(36)
32
31
74
141%
254%
(112)
136
221%
Elimination
(16)
(16)
(29)
(24)
(6)
(6)
-11%
64%
(44)
(36)
18%
EBITDA
264
259
249
361
346
409
18%
58%
814
1,117
37%
79%
79%
Pretax
7
25
(14)
105
89
148
66%
na.
78
342
340%
83%
89%
NP
19
45
(11)
71
58
84
46%
89%
114
213
86%
78%
94%
Margins %
2Q23
3Q23
4Q23
1Q24
2Q24
3Q24
9M23
9M24
GPM %
22%
25%
28%
29%
28%
31%
24%
30%
ASSA Rent
27%
28%
29%
27%
27%
28%
29%
27%
Used car sales
23%
32%
28%
32%
31%
55%
28%
37%
Logistics
10.1%
8.4%
12%
19%
19%
39%
10%
24%
EBIT
5.6%
6.1%
5.5%
14%
12%
16%
7.0%
14%
ASSA Rent
15%
16%
14%
16%
14%
16%
17%
15%
Used car sales
12%
16%
14%
20%
15%
29%
15%
20%
Logistics
-6.9%
-11%
-8.7%
6.2%
6.1%
21%
-7.2%
9.9%
Pretax
0.6%
2.3%
-1.4%
8.9%
7.5%
12%
2.2%
9.4%
NP
1.5%
4.2%
-1.2%
6.0%
4.8%
6.6%
3.3%
5.8%
Balance sheet Rp bn
2Q23
3Q23
4Q23
1Q24
2Q24
3Q24
9M23
9M24
Total Asset
7,399
7,250
7,336
7,662
7,690
7,598
7,250
7,598
Cash
727
688
760
840
772
804
688
804
Interest bearing debt
3,327
3,803
3,864
3,981
3,964
3,988
3,803
3,988
Net debt (cash)
2,600
3,115
3,104
3,142
3,192
3,183
3,115
3,183
Equity
2,502
2,656
2,602
2,683
2,749
2,794
2,656
2,794
Net gearing (x)
1.0
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.2
1.1
ROA (%, ttm)
0.8%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
2.1%
2.7%
1.6%
2.8%
ROE (%, ttm)
2.3%
3.2%
3.9%
4.6%
5.9%
7.2%
4.3%
7.6%
Source: Company data, Verdhana research
Fig. 16: ASSA IJ – NPAT trend
Source: Company data, Verdhana research
INVESTMENT RATINGS A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general.
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