Indonesia Flow Radar is a report series in which we track stock ownership and fund flow to assess investors’ stance on stocks and sectors

Adding high-beta banks and coal stocks

We analyze stock ownership by local and foreign institutional investors. Our analysis suggests the top 4 most added stocks in Jan-2025 as % of investors portfolio are BMRI, BBRI, BBNI, and GOTO (all rated Buy). Total AUM for local institutional investors fell 15% yoy to IDR314tn in Jan-2025 (vs IDR369tn a year ago), while foreign institutional investors AUM declined 7% to IDR883tn (vs IDR951tn a year ago).

Local investors positioning

On a consolidated basis, local investors are adding BBNI, BMRI, GOTO, and BBRI – totalling about 1.5% of investors portfolio. The most reduced stocks include UNTR, INCO, PANI and MYOR.

Sector-wise, local institutions are still overweight on banks at 1.5% of the portfolio. The biggest overweight is in consumer FMCG at about 4.6% higher than that in the benchmark JCI, followed by telco and tower (T&T) and coal stocks at a respective ~3.6% and ~2.5% higher than the benchmark. Note that the overweight in coal stocks is at the highest since Jan-2021. Local investors are still underweight on metal and mining, oil and gas (O&G) and basic materials.

Foreign investors positioning

Foreign investors added BMRI, BBRI, BBNI and GOTO – totaling about 1.8% of their portfolio (see Fig. 2) in Jan-2025. The biggest reduction was for BBCA, which saw its weighting in foreign investors portfolio down from 29.7% in Nov-2024 to 29.0% in Jan-2025. However, we note that BBCA ownership is still at a relatively elevated level. BBRI, however, despite the high addition in Jan-2025, is still at one of the lowest positions since Jan-2021, at only 12.8% of foreign portfolio. This is well below the previous high at 19% in Mar-2024.

Flow-wise, our current top picks are BBCA, BMRI, ICBP, AMRT, and MIDI given the relatively low sector overweights.

Fig. 1: Foreign ownership in top 4 banks – BBCA is still elevated while BBRI is at one of the lowest since 2021

Fig. 3: Sector analysis - locals are overweight on the banks, autos FMCGs, coal, and transport. Note that coal overweight is at one of the highest since 2021

Fig. 4: Foreign ownership weighting in selected stocks. Huge underweight on BBRI. Overweight on BBCA, BMRI, CPIN, BRPT, and INKP.

Fig. 5: Foreign ownership in JCI – institution ownership (ex-strategic, as % of market cap) is at the lowest since 2011

Fig. 6: JCI January outflows summary – 80% of outflow driven by big 4 banks

Fig. 7: Indonesia foreign equity flow – approximately USD2.77bn had fled from Indonesia market since Sept’24 - Jan'25

Fig. 8: Indonesia banks flow – an outflow of USD2.67bn (97% of total equity outflow) since Sept’24 - Jan'25

Fig. 9: Indonesia big 4 banks flow – dominated by BBRI outflow of USD1.47bn (55% of total banks outflow)

INVESTMENT RATINGS
A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general. 

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ANALYST CERTIFICATION
The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report and certifies that the views about the companies including their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views.  The analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

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Nicholas Goei (nicholas.goei@verdhana.id)

David Tjahjadi (david.tjahjadi@verdhana.id)

Jupriadi Tan (jupriadi.tani@verdhana.id)

Gerald Hugo (gerald.hugo@verdhana.id)