In this Flow Radar, funds edition, we assess the cash positions and top 10 holdings of funds in January and February, and insider buying activities. We have tracked all 42 funds that have over IDR200bn in AUM, and data is as of 13 March. Cash position is at a year-to-date low of IDR3.0tn (-10.1% m-m, -23.1% y-y), partly due to redemption and declining index.

We believe local positions continue to suggest limited liquidity, increasing sensitivity to negative event for the market. This also emphasizes limited availability of local investors to provide cushion in a case of event risk.

AUM analysis: slight net subscribe, thus a decline in AuM is likely due to market effect

Among the 47 funds we track, AUM decreased from IDR 43.8tn in Jan 2025 to IDR 39.2tn in Feb 2025 (-10.5% m-m, -23.2% y-y).Net subscription is around IDR830bn – calculating from the number of the units from the funds that we track. Thus, we deem the decline in AUM was mostly due to the JCI being down -11% during the same time span.

Cash total also decreased from IDR3.3tn in Jan 2025 to IDR 3.0 in Feb 2025, as such cash as a percentage of AUM remained at 7.6%. We believe that local institutions are heavily exposed to banks and FMCG and are underexposed to metals & mining, oil & gas, and basic materials.

Local investors accumulated GOTO whilst reducing ISAT

More local funds started accumulating GOTO in February, with the amount of funds holding GOTO as a top ten position increasing from 15 to 18. Local investors have also been selling ISAT, as it went from having 5 to 0 funds holding it in their top 10 positions.

Insider buying on ERAA and MDKA

Based on our insider flow tracker, we have detected continuous insider buying from MDKA (Buy) and ERAA (Buy), at 0.7% and 0.4%, respectively. As such, Eralink now owns 16.09% of ERAA, while Saratoga owns 20.08% of MDKA. We think insiders continue to see value in these stocks due to the decline in the market, portraying confidence in the companies’ fundamentals.

Seek shelter in a low-foreign exposure, limited O/W, and liquid stocks

In line with our de-risking stance, we continue to recommend seeking shelter in stocks with low foreign exposure, limited local O/W, and that are liquid (>USD2mn ADTV). Indeed, we have been seeing a continuous sell-off in banks and FMCG led by foreign outflows. Our criteria are <2% of foreign portfolio, <2.0x foreign-local ratio, <0.25% local investors O/W to index, and >US$2mn ADTV. Selected picks are INDF, KLBF, MIKA, EXCL, and MEDC (all rated Buy).

Fig. 1: Accumulated AUM, cash, and Ccsh position %

Fig. 3: Most added/deleted stocks from fund fact sheets

Fig. 5: Sector analysis – Locals have decreased their overweight levels in banks, whilst maintaining high overweight levels in FMCG, T&T, coal, autos, and transport

Fig. 6: Foreign ownership weighting in selected stocks. Huge underweight on BBRI, GOTO and TPIA, with slight overweight in BBCA and BMRI

Fig. 7: Foreign ownership in JCI – Institutional ownership as % of market cap is at lowest since 2011

Fig. 8: Foreign ownership in top 4 banks – All 4 banks have been sold off, with BBNI being sold off the least

INVESTMENT RATINGS
A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general. 

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David Tjahjadi (david.tjahjadi@verdhana.id)

Nicholas Goei (nicholas.goei@verdhana.id)

Jupriadi Tan (jupriadi.tan@verdhana.id)

Gerald Hugo (gerald.hugo@verdhana.id)