We track stock ownership and fund flows in the Indonesia Flow Radar series to assess investors’ stance on stocks and sectors (refer here).

Liquid names were favored as a safe haven in February

Our analysis suggests that local investors continue to seek shelter in liquid names. ANTM, GOTO, BBCA, and ASII (all rated Buy) experienced the most significant increase as a percentage of local investors' portfolios. Local AUM declined by IDR35tn in Feb-2025 to IDR278tn (-11% m-m), whereas foreign AUM declined by IDR133tn to IDR750tn (-15% m-m). The significant decline in AUM is attributable to increasing redemption driven by JCI’s performance.

SOE banks (BBRI and BMRI, both rated Buy) and ISAT (Buy) recorded heavy outflows from investors, possibly driven by concerns over uncertainty in political communication and diminishing purchasing power.

Local investor positioning: FMCG remains top O/W

The top 5 additions from local investors were ANTM, GOTO, ASII, BBCA, and MAPI (Buy), totalling ~1.2% of investors’ portfolio. In contrast, the top five deductions included BBRI, BMRI, ISAT and AADI (Buy), and BBNI (Buy), trimming about 2.8% of their portfolio. BBRI and BMRI, in particular, saw noticeably large drops in their weights by 1.3% and 0.7%, respectively.

By sector, local investors are overweight in FMCGs (+4.7% of index), telecommunication & tower (T&T) (+3.4%), coal (+2.5%), and auto (+1.8%). However, T&T and banks recorded a declining level of overweight. Local investors remain underweight in O&G, basic materials, and metals mining.

Foreign investor positioning

The top five additions from foreign investors were BBCA, ASII, TLKM (Buy), MAPI, and UNTR (Not rated), together accounting for ~2.5% of foreign investors’ portfolios. Major contributors to the increase were BBCA (1.4% of the portfolio) and ASII (0.5%). The significant increase can be attributable to a significant decline in foreign AUM (-133tn or -15% m-m), likely due to de-risking stance, which significantly adjusted the denominator.  

From a flows perspective, we continue to favor our cautious stance due to lingering concerns over unpredictability in political communication, soft purchasing power, and imminent event risk. We prefer stocks with low foreign exposure, limited local overweight, and decent ADTV. Our top picks are INDF (Buy), KLBF (Buy), MIKA (Neutral), EXCL (Buy), and MEDC (Buy).

Fig. 2: Foreign ownership in top 4 banks – BBCA weighting at record high, whereas BBRI and BMRI show a gradual decrease since 2021

Fig. 4: Sector analysis – locals have decreased their overweight levels in banks, while maintaining high overweight levels in FMCG, T&T, coal, autos, and transport

Fig. 5: Foreign ownership weighting in select stocks; significantly underweight on BBRI, GOTO and TPIA with slight overweight on BBCA and BMRI

Fig. 6: Foreign ownership in JCI – institution ownership as a % of market cap is at lowest since 2011

Fig. 7: Foreign equity flows: approximately USD3.68bn exited Indonesia from Sep-2024 to Feb-2025

Fig. 8: Performance of MSCI Indonesia

Fig. 9: Indonesian bank flows – an outflow of IDR52.6tn since Sep-2024

Fig. 10: Indonesia’s big 4 banks’ flows dominated by BBRI with an outflow of IDR41tn, approximately 74.5% of the total bank outflow

Fig. 11: Ratio of foreign-to-local institution ownership

INVESTMENT RATINGS
A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general. 

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ANALYST CERTIFICATION
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David Tjahjadi (David.tjahjadi@verdhana.id)

Nicholas Goei (Nicholas.goei@verdhana.id)

Jupriadi Tan (Jupriadi.tan@verdhana.id)

Gerald Hugo (Gerald.hugo@verdhana.id)