BBNI has released its bank-only Jul-25 results, which came in behind our projections (and Bloomberg consensus). On an YTD Jul-25 basis, the bank reported a profit of IDR11.9tn (-5% y-y). We believe that liquidity in 2H25F will improve (and thus funding cost should also improve or not worsen), as we expect higher government spending in 2H25F in order to rejuvenate economic growth. In addition, combined with more placement of government monies (i.e., from the MoF) as well as Danatara’s placement of their dividend receipts into SOE banks (as witnessed in the growth rate of the bank’s deposits), these should translate into higher M2 growth (+6.5% in Jul-25) and ease liquidity concerns in the banking system.

Bank-only Jul-25 results summary

For Jul-25, net interest income stood at IDR3.2tn (+1% m-m; -8% y-y), with gross interest income of IDR5.8tn (+3% m-m; +4% y-y), and gross interest expenses of IDR2.5tn (+5% mm; +24% y-y). This brings YTD Jul-25 NII to IDR22.2tn (flat y-y). Meanwhile, PPOP slipped to IDR2.6tn (-3% m-m; -10% y-y), bringing YTD Jul-25 PPOP to IDR18.4tn (-3% y-y). In Jul-25, BBNI booked credit costs of IDR543bn (implying 90bp, same in Jul-24). This brings YTD Jul-25 CoC to IDR4.1tn (+6% y-y) – implying YTD CoC of 90bp (flat y-y). As a result, BBNI’s implied YTD NIM and risk-adjusted NIM stood at 3.6% (-30bp y-y) and 3.0% (-20bp y-y), respectively. Bank-only Jul-25 net profit reached IDR1.7tn (+3% m-m; -11% y-y), bringing YTD Jul-25 profit to IDR11.9tn (-5% y-y). Overall, the implied balance sheet ROAA stood at 1.8%, with balance sheet ROAE of 13.2%.

On the balance sheet, BBNI booked loan growth of 6% y-y (flat YTD) while deposits grew 19% y-y (+11% YTD), with growth coming mostly from Current Account (CA) +26% y-y (+19% YTD). Savings Account (SA) and Time Deposits (TD) also grew by 12% y-y (+4% YTD) and 19% y-y (+9% YTD), resulting in a CASA ratio of 71.1% and LDR of 86.7% (vs 97.4% in Jul-24). Loan-Loss-Reserve (LLR) stood at 4.7% (-100bp y-y / -30bp YTD).

Valuation and risks

We derive our TP of IDR6,100 using DuPont analysis, with key parameters as follows: a risk-free rate of 6.5%, an equity risk premium of 7.8%, long-term growth of 8.5%, a beta of 1.0x and a CAR-adjusted ROAE of 16.5%. Our TP implies 1.3x FY25F P/B (vs current price valuation of 1.0x) and 10.7x FY25F P/E (vs current price valuation of 7.5x). Risks are worsening economic trends, tighter liquidity competition, and/or higher credit cost and opex growth.

Fig. 1: BBNI YTD Y-Y performance %

Fig. 3: BBNI 12MMA CoC vs 12MMA WO %

Fig. 4: BBNI LLR vs 12MMA WO %

INVESTMENT RATINGS
A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general. 

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Erwin Wijaya (erwin.wijaya@verdhana.id)