Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ) (Buy) - Revise up earnings following robust results

Revise up earnings following robust results

Maintain Buy rating with a higher TP to IDR6,100

ANTM announced its 1Q26 results that were well above consensus expectations, with revenue of Rp29.3tn (+12% y-y, +132% q-q) and net income of Rp3.4tn (+60% y-y, +176% q-q; accounted for 40%/38% of FY26F our/Bloomberg consensus estimates) — implying meaningful FY upside if the run-rate holds. The strong quarter was broad-based across all segments, with margins expanding sharply — GPM at 19.2% (vs 13.9% in 1Q25) and NPM at 11.6% (vs 8.1% in 1Q25), also supported by IDR130bn in JV income from the new alumina plant.

Beneficiaries of HPM index change; Gold volumes to recover; Alumina to ramp up

We maintain ANTM as our top upstream nickel pick, supported by multiple near-term catalysts. First, we expect nickel ore ASP to rise to USD65–70/wmt (vs. USD53/wmt in FY26), improving cash margin significantly to ~50% (vs 42% last year), driven by record-high ore premium pricing and the revised HPM index, which lifts both saprolite and limonite benchmarks—while ANTM continues to hold limonite inventory. While we await further details, we see significant volume upside, with nickel ore sales potentially more than doubling once EV-related projects are fully commissioned. Second, we see gold volumes recovering, following last year’s low base, reaching 40 tons in FY26F with cash margin of 9% (vs 7% last year), due to robust retail demand. Lastly, the ramp-up of the SGAR alumina plant provides additional earnings potential in FY26F.

We revise our earnings forecasts higher by +50-65% for FY26F-27F

We raise our earnings forecasts by 50-65% for FY26F-27F, driven by rapid growth in its nickel segment. We increase our nickel price assumption to USD18,000/t for FY26-27F and assume gold price at USD4,500/oz. We expect ANTM to produce 17mn wmt of ore this year, growing at ~10%, following the RKAB quota approval. With that, we expect ANTM to generate IDR11-15tn of OCF for the next several years (vs 5Y average of IDR5tn). This robust set of results could result in >12% dividend yield for FY26F, by our estimate.

Roll forward valuation; maintain Buy with a higher TP of IDR6,100

We roll forward valuation and maintain our Buy rating with a higher TP of IDR6,100 (vs IDR3,800 previously), based on 8.4x FY26F EV/EBITDA (vs 7.4x previously), which is close to its 5Y average, implying 12.6x FY26F P/E. The stock currently trades at 8.1x FY26F P/E. Our valuation does not yet incorporate future projects, i.e. battery plant. Downside risks include a decline in commodity prices, regulatory changes, and setbacks to future projects.

Year-end 31 Dec	FY25		FY26F		FY27F		FY28F
Currency (IDR)	Actual	Old	New	Old	New	Old	New
Revenue (bn)	84,642	92,795	125,074	109,584	133,836	0	136,757
Reported net profit (bn)	7,209	7,696	11,576	8,209	13,579	0	13,949
Normalised net profit (bn)	7,209	7,696	11,576	8,209	13,579	0	13,949
FD normalised EPS	299.98	320.26	481.74	341.61	565.08		580.45
FD norm. EPS growth (%)	97.7	2.4	60.6	6.7	17.3		2.7
FD normalised P/E (x)	12.9	–	8.1	–	6.9	–	6.7
EV/EBITDA (x)	9.0	–	5.1	–	4.3	–	4.2
Price/book (x)	2.6	–	2.4	–	2.2	–	2.2
Dividend yield (%)	3.9	–	7.7	–	12.4	–	14.6
ROE (%)	21.6	21.7	30.9	23.0	33.4		33.3
Net debt/equity (%)	net cash	net cash	net cash	net cash	net cash		net cash

Source: Company data, Verdhana estimates

Key data on Aneka Tambang

Income statement (IDRbn)
Year-end 31 Dec	FY24	FY25	FY26F	FY27F	FY28F
Revenue	69,192	84,642	125,074	133,836	136,757
Cost of goods sold	-62,694	-70,961	-102,947	-108,507	-110,957
Gross profit	6,498	13,681	22,127	25,330	25,800
SG&A	-3,500	-5,286	-6,671	-7,017	-7,189
Employee share expense	0	0	0	0	0
Operating profit	2,998	8,395	15,456	18,313	18,611
EBITDA	4,553	9,631	16,780	19,698	20,057
Depreciation	-1,556	-1,236	-1,324	-1,385	-1,446
Amortisation	0	0	0	0	0
EBIT	2,998	8,395	15,456	18,313	18,611
Net interest expense	255	247	327	326	382
Associates & JCEs	690	183	450	452	571
Other income	671	922	0	0	0
Earnings before tax	4,614	9,747	16,233	19,091	19,564
Income tax	-761	-1,827	-3,367	-3,996	-4,061
Net profit after tax	3,852	7,920	12,866	15,095	15,502
Minority interests	-205	-712	-1,289	-1,516	-1,554
Other items
Preferred dividends
Normalised NPAT	3,647	7,209	11,576	13,579	13,949
Extraordinary items
Reported NPAT	3,647	7,209	11,576	13,579	13,949
Dividends	-3,078	-3,647	-7,209	-11,576	-13,579
Transfer to reserves	570	3,562	4,368	2,003	369
Valuations and ratios
Reported P/E (x)	25.6	12.9	8.1	6.9	6.7
Normalised P/E (x)	25.6	12.9	8.1	6.9	6.7
FD normalised P/E (x)	25.6	12.9	8.1	6.9	6.7
Dividend yield (%)	3.3	3.9	7.7	12.4	14.6
Price/cashflow (x)	20.5	18.2	8.3	6.3	6.1
Price/book (x)	3.0	2.6	2.4	2.2	2.2
EV/EBITDA (x)	16.1	9.0	5.1	4.3	4.2
EV/EBIT (x)	23.0	10.3	5.5	4.6	4.5
Gross margin (%)	9.4	16.2	17.7	18.9	18.9
EBITDA margin (%)	6.6	11.4	13.4	14.7	14.7
EBIT margin (%)	4.3	9.9	12.4	13.7	13.6
Net margin (%)	5.3	8.5	9.3	10.1	10.2
Effective tax rate (%)	16.5	18.7	20.7	20.9	20.8
Dividend payout (%)	84.4	50.6	62.3	85.3	97.4
ROE (%)	13.4	21.6	30.9	33.4	33.3
ROA (pretax %)	13.0	22.3	35.4	38.5	38.4
Growth (%)
Revenue	-10.6	22.3	47.8	7.0	2.2
EBITDA	-10.9	111.5	74.2	17.4	1.8
Normalised EPS	-19.5	97.7	60.6	17.3	2.7
Normalised FDEPS	-19.5	97.7	60.6	17.3	2.7
Source: Company data, Verdhana estimates

Cashflow statement (IDRbn)
Year-end 31 Dec	FY24	FY25	FY26F	FY27F	FY28F
EBITDA	4,553	9,631	16,780	19,698	20,057
Change in working capital	-124	-4,965	-2,992	-927	-361
Other operating cashflow	125	454	-2,524	-4,078	-4,447
Cashflow from operations	4,555	5,119	11,265	14,693	15,249
Capital expenditure	-1,010	-1,020	-1,891	-1,891	-1,901
Free cashflow	3,545	4,099	9,374	12,802	13,348
Reduction in investments	-2,858	-3,573	128	324	410
Net acquisitions
Dec in other LT assets	-474	-161	0	0	0
Inc in other LT liabilities	-363	-1,087	-1,512	-328	-109
Adjustments	-70	-99	-966	-161	-206
CF after investing acts	-220	-822	7,024	12,638	13,443
Cash dividends	-3,078	-3,647	-7,209	-11,576	-13,579
Equity issue	0	0	0	0	0
Debt issue	-2,508	4,250	0	0	0
Convertible debt issue
Others	789	1,614	177	194	84
CF from financial acts	-4,797	2,217	-7,032	-11,382	-13,495
Net cashflow	-5,017	1,395	-8	1,256	-52
Beginning cash	14,334	9,317	10,712	10,704	11,960
Ending cash	9,317	10,712	10,704	11,960	11,908
Ending net debt	-9,317	-6,462	-6,454	-7,710	-7,657
Balance sheet (IDRbn)
As at 31 Dec	FY24	FY25	FY26F	FY27F	FY28F
Cash & equivalents	9,317	10,712	10,704	11,960	11,908
Marketable securities	0	0	0	0	0
Accounts receivable	1,149	2,328	2,950	3,157	3,226
Inventories	6,040	7,731	9,025	9,513	9,728
Other current assets	1,486	2,251	3,326	3,559	3,636
Total current assets	17,992	23,022	26,006	28,188	28,498
LT investments	7,277	9,913	10,127	10,011	9,823
Fixed assets	17,174	16,430	17,836	18,342	18,797
Goodwill
Other intangible assets
Other LT assets	2,079	3,166	4,679	5,006	5,116
Total assets	44,523	52,530	58,648	61,548	62,233
Short-term debt	0	1,330	1,330	1,330	1,330
Accounts payable	1,771	1,598	2,538	2,676	2,736
Other current liabilities	8,000	6,843	5,902	5,765	5,705
Total current liabilities	9,771	9,771	9,771	9,771	9,771
Long-term debt	0	2,920	2,920	2,920	2,920
Convertible debt
Other LT liabilities	2,552	3,239	4,989	5,887	6,202
Total liabilities	12,323	15,931	17,680	18,578	18,893
Minority interest	741	1,302	1,302	1,302	1,302
Preferred stock
Common stock	12,099	12,099	12,099	12,099	12,099
Retained earnings	14,986	18,781	23,149	25,151	25,521
Proposed dividends
Other equity and reserves	4,373	4,418	4,418	4,418	4,418
Total shareholders' equity	31,458	35,298	39,666	41,669	42,038
Total equity & liabilities	44,523	52,530	58,648	61,548	62,233
Liquidity (x)
Current ratio	1.84	2.36	2.66	2.88	2.92
Interest cover	–	–	–	–	–
Leverage
Net debt/EBITDA (x)	net cash	net cash	net cash	net cash	net cash
Net debt/equity (%)	net cash	net cash	net cash	net cash	net cash
Per share
Reported EPS (IDR)	151.77	299.98	481.74	565.08	580.45
Norm EPS (IDR)	151.77	299.98	481.74	565.08	580.45
FD norm EPS (IDR)	151.77	299.98	481.74	565.08	580.45
BVPS (IDR)	1,309.08	1,468.88	1,650.63	1,733.97	1,749.34
DPS (IDR)	128.07	151.77	299.98	481.74	565.08
Activity (days)
Days receivable		7.5	7.7	8.3	8.5
Days inventory		35.4	29.7	31.2	31.7
Days payable		8.7	7.3	8.8	8.9
Cash cycle	0.0	34.2	30.1	30.7	31.3
Source: Company data, Verdhana estimates

Company profilePT Antam Tbk (short for Aneka Tambang) was incorporated in 1968 as a result of the merger between several state-owned mining companies to form a state-owned mining industry holding in Indonesia. In 1997, the company made an IPO in Indonesia with the ticker name ANTM IJ, followed by an IPO in Australia in 1999 to raise funds for its ferronickel project expansion. To date, ANTM is owned by PT Indonesia Asahan Aluminium (Indonesia's state-owned mining holding company – also known as Inalum) with a 65% stake, and public ownership with a 35% stake. The company is engaged in mining gold, silver, ferronickel, nickel ore, bauxite, and alumina.

Valuation MethodologyOur target price of IDR6,100 implies 8.4x FY26F EV/EBITDA, at its 5-year average. The benchmark index is JCI index.

Risks that may impede the achievement of the target priceDownside risks include a decline in the commodity price volatility, regulatory changes and setbacks to future projects.

ESGANTM is taking various ESG effort by implementing Social & Environmental Responsibility Program (locally: TJSL program). The TJSL program aims to encourage and strengthen local SMEs by digitalization as well as developing local natural resources such as coconut products, local coffee in Halmahera, and various agrobusiness. Other than the program, the company also actively contribute to the local health especially those impacted by Covid.

Fig. 1: ANTM 1Q26 results: Strong gold and nickel ore results

ANTM 1Q26 result									FY26/	FY26/
in IDR bn	1Q25	4Q25	1Q26	QoQ	YoY	3M25	3M26	YoY	Ours	Cons
Revenue	26,152	12,614	29,323	132%	12%	26,152	29,323	12%	23%	25%
Gross Profit	3,636	2,697	5,617	108%	54%	3,636	5,617	54%	31%	34%
Operating Profit	2,691	507	4,503	788%	67%	2,691	4,503	67%	40%	41%
EBITDA	2,992	811	4,790	491%	60%	2,992	4,790	60%	38%	37%
Net Income	2,131	1,234	3,407	176%	60%	2,131	3,407	60%	40%	38%
Core earnings	2,015	207	3,025	1363%	50%	2,015	3,025	50%

GPM	13.9%	21.4%	19.2%			13.9%	19.2%
OPM	10.3%	4.0%	15.4%			10.3%	15.4%
NPM	8.1%	9.8%	11.6%			8.1%	11.6%

ANTM segment	1Q25	4Q25	1Q26	QoQ	YoY	3M25	3M26	YoY
Revenue
Nickel	3,765	3,697	4,467	21%	19%	3,765	4,467	19%
Precious metals and refinery	21,674	7,934	23,964	202%	11%	21,674	23,964	11%
Bauxite and Alumina	709	963	879	-9%	24%	709	879	24%
Others	4	21	13	-37%	264%	4	13	264%
Net profit
Nickel**	1,309	720	2,252	213%	72%	1,309	2,252	72%
Precious metals and refinery*	1,712	617	2,513	308%	47%	1,712	2,513	47%
Bauxite and Alumina	200	156	270	73%	35%	200	270	35%
Head office	(841)	(79)	(1,314)	N/A	N/A	(841)	(1,314)	N/A
Others	(56)	(105)	(57)	N/A	N/A	(56)	(57)	N/A
*ex reversal Budi Said case in 4Q25
**ex regulatory cost in 4Q25
ANTM operational result	1Q25	4Q25	4Q25	QoQ	YoY	3M25	3M26	YoY	FY25/Ours
Gold
Gold production vol (k oz)	7.4	4.9	6.5	31%	-13%	7.4	6.5	-13%	21%
Gold sales vol (k oz)	441.7	104.2	272.1	161%	-38%	442	272	-38%	21%
FeNi
FeNi production vol (k TNi)	4.5	2.8	4.0	44%	-12%	4.5	4.0	-12%	23%
FeNi sales vol (k TNi)	4.8	2.3	2.8	19%	-42%	4.8	2.8	-42%	27%
Ni ore
Ni ore production vol (k Wmt)	4,633	3,561	3,878	9%	-16%	4,633	3,878	-16%	22%
Ni ore sales vol (k Wmt)	3,829	3,349	3,399	2%	-11%	3,829	3,399	-11%	21%
Bauxite & Alumina
Bauxite production (k Wmt)	654	514	629	22%	-4%	654	629	-4%	22%
Bauxite sales (k Wmt)	545	786	593	-24%	9%	545	593	9%	30%
Alumina production (kt)	44	47	50	4%	13%	44	50	13%	28%
Alumina sales (kt)	44	45	49	8%	11%	44	49	11%	28%

Source: Company data, Bloomberg Finance L.P., Verdhana estimates

Fig. 2: ANTM key performance chart – quarterly trends

Source: Company data, Verdhana research

Fig. 4: ANTM’s assumption changes

Source: Company data, Verdhana estimates

INVESTMENT RATINGS
A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general.

GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared by PT Verdhana Sekuritas Indonesia (“PTVSI”) a securities company registered in Indonesia, supervised by Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK) and a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).

This report is intended for client of PTVSI only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of PTVSI.

The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but PTVSI do not make any representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. The information in this report is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or condensed and it may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report. Any information, valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or targets herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report is published, and there is no assurance that future results or events will be consistent.

This report is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or financial products. PTVSI and its associates, its directors, and/or its employees may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in this report or it may or will engage in any securities transaction or other capital market services for the company (companies) mentioned herein.

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report and certifies that the views about the companies including their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

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Rating Table

Rating Remains	Buy
Target price Increased from IDR 3,800	IDR 6,100
Closing price 29 April 2026	IDR 3,880
Implied upside	+57.2%
Market Cap (USD mn)	5,397.4
ADT (USD mn)	32.7

Relative performance chart

Source: LSEG, Verdhana

M cap (USDmn)	5,397.4
Free float (%)	35.0
3-mth ADT (USDmn)	32.7

(%)	1M	3M	12M
Absolute (IDR)	10.9	-10.2	78.0
Absolute (USD)	8.8	-12.9	72.6
Rel to Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index	10.8	3.6	72.8

Research Analysts

Michael Wildon Ng (michael.wildon@verdhana.id)

Nizam Syafik (nizam.syafik@verdhana.id)

Tags: METALS AND MINING, Aneka Tambang, ANTM, ANTM JK, ANTM IJ, Michael Wildon Ng, Nizam Syafik

Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ) (Buy) - Revise up earnings following robust results

Revise up earnings following robust results

Key data on Aneka Tambang

Fig. 1: ANTM 1Q26 results: Strong gold and nickel ore results

Fig. 2: ANTM key performance chart – quarterly trends

Fig. 3: Project Dragon and Titan EV ecosystem could contribute to additional 18+16mn wmt ore needed

Fig. 4: ANTM’s assumption changes

Fig. 5: ANTM's growth trajectory and future potential

Fig. 6: ANTM 5Y P/E band

Fig. 7: ANTM 5Y EV/EBITDA band

Rating Table

Relative performance chart

Research Analysts

yudi Administrator

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Indonesia Nickel - Nickel ore drives downstream prices

Aneka Tambang ANTM IJ -Buy- RKEF acquisition a value-accretive deal

Indonesia Commodity - Verdhana Conference takeaways

Trimegah Bangun Persada (NCKL IJ) (Buy) - Superior performance

Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ) (Buy) - Revise up earnings following robust results

Fig. 1: ANTM 1Q26 results: Strong gold and nickel ore results

Fig. 2: ANTM key performance chart – quarterly trends

Fig. 3: Project Dragon and Titan EV ecosystem could contribute to additional 18+16mn wmt ore needed

Fig. 4: ANTM’s assumption changes

Fig. 5: ANTM's growth trajectory and future potential

Fig. 6: ANTM 5Y P/E band

Fig. 7: ANTM 5Y EV/EBITDA band

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