Bank Central Asia BBCA IJ - Buy - Solid YTD Jul-24 results
BBCA’s bank-only Jul-24 earnings of IDR4.9tr (+1% m-m / +17% y-y) brings YTD Jul-24 headline profit to
Lower earnings by 23-39% for FY25-26F; TP cut to IDR2,275
Lower earnings by 23-39% for FY25-26F; TP cut to IDR2,275
ARTO released its 1Q25 results, which were pretty solid, in our opinion. Despite a still challenging macroeconomic environment amid tight liquidity as well as soft purchasing power and/or economic trajectory, the bank reported a profit of IDR60bn (+41% q-q; +178% y-y), accounting for ~20% of our new FY25F profit projection. The bank’s solid performance was primarily driven by improved collaboration between the bank and its loan-channeling partners. Going forward, we think that ARTO will focus on four key points: optimizing existing strategic partnerships, starting to lendi direct to customers, launching wealth management products and upgrading the Jago app with AI.
For the remainder of 2025F, we think challenges for Bank Jago will persist, among which is asset quality; of late, we have seen savings rates in the mass market segments decline. Moreover, we think a gradual reduction in the lending-rate cap for fintechs (lending partners of digital banks) could impact the bank’s overall earnings. We believe this could be detrimental to the survivability of many fintechs and tighten the future underwriting of loans. We also think loan growth will slow for digital banks. For these reasons, we lower our loan growth assumptions for 2025-26F by 3-15%. Subsequently, we also cut our earnings forecasts by ~-23-39% for FY25-26F. Post earnings forecast reductions, we maintain our Neutral rating with a lower target price of IDR2,275 (previously IDR3,000).
Valuation and risks
We derive our TP based on a target PEG ratio of 1.0x (up from 0.90x). Using our three-year (2024-27F) earnings CAGR estimate of 69.5% (down from 117%) and at a target PEG of 1.0x, we arrive at our TP of IDR2,275 (from IDR3,000). We think it is at a significant discount compared to the average PEG of 2.29x for the Indonesia banks in our coverage universe. Key risks are related to execution risks, particularly the bank’s ability to execute on its collaboration with Goto’s (GOTO IJ, Buy) ecosystems. This, in our view, would be the single major risk to our earnings estimates and TP. Of late, we have also seen upward credit risks in the mass-market segments (which has led to ARTO reducing its loan exposure to syariah ultra-micro lending).
| Year-end 31 Dec | FY24 | FY25F | FY26F | FY27F | |||
| Currency (IDR) | Actual | Old | New | Old | New | Old | New |
| PPOP (mn) | 484,642 | 1,088,269 | 1,353,029 | 1,684,011 | 1,708,426 | 0 | 2,080,195 |
| Reported net profit (mn) | 128,518 | 396,034 | 303,558 | 740,800 | 453,344 | 0 | 625,964 |
| Normalised net profit (mn) | 128,518 | 396,034 | 303,558 | 740,800 | 453,344 | 0 | 625,964 |
| FD normalised EPS | 9.28 | 28.58 | 21.91 | 53.46 | 32.72 | 45.18 | |
| FD norm. EPS growth (%) | 77.6 | 192.9 | 136.2 | 87.1 | 49.3 | 38.1 | |
| FD normalised P/E (x) | 217.8 | – | 92.2 | – | 61.7 | – | 44.7 |
| Price/adj. book (x) | 3.3 | – | 3.2 | – | 3.0 | – | 2.8 |
| Price/book (x) | 3.3 | – | 3.2 | – | 3.0 | – | 2.8 |
| Dividend yield (%) | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| ROE (%) | 1.5 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 6.5 | |
| ROA (%) | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | |
Profit and loss (IDRmn) | |||||||||||||||||||
Year-end 31 Dec | FY23 | FY24 | FY25F | FY26F | FY27F | ||||||||||||||
Interest income | 1,874,936 | 2,052,751 | 3,366,624 | 3,931,751 | 4,456,244 | ||||||||||||||
Interest expense | -309,493 | -499,326 | -816,879 | -967,993 | -1,063,855 | ||||||||||||||
Net interest income | 1,565,443 | 1,553,425 | 2,549,745 | 2,963,758 | 3,392,389 | ||||||||||||||
Net fees and commissions | 8,720 | 2,061 | 2,500 | 2,750 | 3,000 | ||||||||||||||
Trading related profits | |||||||||||||||||||
Other operating revenue | 188,301 | 288,890 | 300,000 | 300,000 | 300,003 | ||||||||||||||
Non-interest income | 197,021 | 290,951 | 302,500 | 302,750 | 303,003 | ||||||||||||||
Operating income | 1,762,464 | 1,844,376 | 2,852,245 | 3,266,508 | 3,695,392 | ||||||||||||||
Depreciation | -31,063 | -32,865 | -16,624 | -22,899 | -25,189 | ||||||||||||||
Amortisation | |||||||||||||||||||
Operating expenses | -804,030 | -820,822 | -858,242 | -897,724 | -939,112 | ||||||||||||||
Employee share expense | -432,499 | -506,047 | -624,350 | -637,459 | -650,895 | ||||||||||||||
Pre-provision op profit | 494,872 | 484,642 | 1,353,029 | 1,708,426 | 2,080,195 | ||||||||||||||
Provisions for bad debt | -401,309 | -304,032 | -973,582 | -1,141,746 | -1,297,740 | ||||||||||||||
Other provision charges | |||||||||||||||||||
Operating profit | 93,563 | 180,610 | 379,448 | 566,681 | 782,455 | ||||||||||||||
Other non-op income | -1,251 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||||||||||||
Associates & JCEs | |||||||||||||||||||
Pre-tax profit | 93,563 | 179,359 | 379,448 | 566,681 | 782,455 | ||||||||||||||
Income tax | -21,201 | -50,841 | -75,890 | -113,336 | -156,491 | ||||||||||||||
Net profit after tax | 72,362 | 128,518 | 303,558 | 453,344 | 625,964 | ||||||||||||||
Minority interests | |||||||||||||||||||
Other items | |||||||||||||||||||
Preferred dividends | |||||||||||||||||||
Normalised NPAT | 72,362 | 128,518 | 303,558 | 453,344 | 625,964 | ||||||||||||||
Extraordinary items | |||||||||||||||||||
Reported NPAT | 72,362 | 128,518 | 303,558 | 453,344 | 625,964 | ||||||||||||||
Dividends | |||||||||||||||||||
Transfer to reserves | 72,362 | 128,518 | 303,558 | 453,344 | 625,964 | ||||||||||||||
Growth (%) | |||||||||||||||||||
Net interest income | 15.7 | -0.8 | 64.1 | 16.2 | 14.5 | ||||||||||||||
Non-interest income | 152.5 | 47.7 | 4.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | ||||||||||||||
Non-interest expenses | 18.9 | 2.1 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.6 | ||||||||||||||
Pre-provision earnings | 22.1 | -2.1 | 179.2 | 26.3 | 21.8 | ||||||||||||||
Net profit | 354.7 | 77.6 | 136.2 | 49.3 | 38.1 | ||||||||||||||
Normalised EPS | 354.7 | 77.6 | 136.2 | 49.3 | 38.1 | ||||||||||||||
Normalised FDEPS | 354.7 | 77.6 | 136.2 | 49.3 | 38.1 | ||||||||||||||
Loan growth | 39.5 | 36.3 | 16.6 | 13.1 | 10.7 | ||||||||||||||
Interest earning assets | 24.5 | 34.8 | 21.3 | 15.5 | 12.7 | ||||||||||||||
Interest bearing liabilities | 47.6 | 57.1 | 28.2 | 20.0 | 15.0 | ||||||||||||||
Asset growth | 25.5 | 34.0 | 20.1 | 15.7 | 12.8 | ||||||||||||||
Deposit growth | 45.8 | 55.8 | 25.0 | 20.0 | 15.0 | ||||||||||||||
Source: Company data, Verdhana estimates | |||||||||||||||||||
Balance sheet (IDRmn) | |||||||||||||||||||
As at 31 Dec | FY23 | FY24 | FY25F | FY26F | FY27F | ||||||||||||||
Cash and equivalents | 8,863 | 16,396 | 2,545,352 | 4,635,427 | 6,666,011 | ||||||||||||||
Inter-bank lending | 1,766,589 | 3,208,478 | 3,208,478 | 3,208,478 | 3,208,478 | ||||||||||||||
Deposits with central bank | 1,178,913 | 1,005,844 | 1,005,844 | 1,005,844 | 1,005,844 | ||||||||||||||
Total securities | 3,487,791 | 4,265,121 | 4,371,749 | 4,481,043 | 4,593,069 | ||||||||||||||
Other int earning assets | |||||||||||||||||||
Gross loans | 13,020,051 | 17,701,486 | 21,241,783 | 24,428,051 | 27,481,557 | ||||||||||||||
Less provisions | -242,117 | -288,675 | -935,650 | -1,458,715 | -2,061,436 | ||||||||||||||
Net loans | 12,777,934 | 17,412,811 | 20,306,133 | 22,969,336 | 25,420,121 | ||||||||||||||
Long-term investments | |||||||||||||||||||
Fixed assets | 119,131 | 115,609 | 181,517 | 185,879 | 190,677 | ||||||||||||||
Goodwill | |||||||||||||||||||
Other intangible assets | |||||||||||||||||||
Other non IEAs | 1,956,619 | 2,518,453 | 2,658,024 | 3,172,638 | 3,635,789 | ||||||||||||||
Total assets | 21,295,840 | 28,542,712 | 34,277,098 | 39,658,644 | 44,719,989 | ||||||||||||||
Customer deposits | 12,067,195 | 18,805,830 | 23,507,288 | 28,208,745 | 32,440,057 | ||||||||||||||
Bank deposits, CDs, debentures | 149,235 | 387,405 | 1,095,761 | 1,314,914 | 1,512,151 | ||||||||||||||
Other int bearing liabilities | |||||||||||||||||||
Total int bearing liabilities | 12,216,430 | 19,193,235 | 24,603,049 | 29,523,659 | 33,952,207 | ||||||||||||||
Non-int bearing liabilities | 722,618 | 830,553 | 851,567 | 859,159 | 865,992 | ||||||||||||||
Total liabilities | 12,939,048 | 20,023,788 | 25,454,615 | 30,382,817 | 34,818,199 | ||||||||||||||
Minority interest | |||||||||||||||||||
Common stock | 8,521,500 | 8,555,114 | 8,555,114 | 8,555,114 | 8,555,114 | ||||||||||||||
Preferred stock | |||||||||||||||||||
Retained earnings | -164,708 | -36,190 | 267,368 | 720,713 | 1,346,676 | ||||||||||||||
Reserves for credit losses | |||||||||||||||||||
Proposed dividends | |||||||||||||||||||
Other equity | |||||||||||||||||||
Shareholders' equity | 8,356,792 | 8,518,924 | 8,822,482 | 9,275,827 | 9,901,790 | ||||||||||||||
Total liabilities and equity | 21,295,840 | 28,542,712 | 34,277,098 | 39,658,644 | 44,719,989 | ||||||||||||||
Non-perf assets | 109,372 | 28,959 | 34,751 | 39,966 | 44,965 | ||||||||||||||
Balance sheet ratios (%) | |||||||||||||||||||
Loans to deposits | 107.9 | 94.1 | 90.4 | 86.6 | 84.7 | ||||||||||||||
Equity to assets | 39.2 | 29.8 | 25.7 | 23.4 | 22.1 | ||||||||||||||
Asset quality & capital | |||||||||||||||||||
NPAs/gross loans (%) | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | ||||||||||||||
Bad debt charge/gross loans (%) | 3.08 | 1.72 | 4.58 | 4.67 | 4.72 | ||||||||||||||
Loss reserves/assets (%) | 1.14 | 1.01 | 2.73 | 3.68 | 4.61 | ||||||||||||||
Loss reserves/NPAs (%) | 221.4 | 996.8 | 2,692.5 | 3,649.9 | 4,584.6 | ||||||||||||||
Tier 1 capital ratio (%) | 60.6 | 35.3 | 36.8 | 33.8 | 32.8 | ||||||||||||||
Total capital ratio (%) | 61.8 | 36.4 | 36.8 | 33.8 | 32.8 | ||||||||||||||
Per share | |||||||||||||||||||
Reported EPS (IDR) | 5.22 | 9.28 | 21.91 | 32.72 | 45.18 | ||||||||||||||
Norm EPS (IDR) | 5.22 | 9.28 | 21.91 | 32.72 | 45.18 | ||||||||||||||
FD norm EPS (IDR) | 5.22 | 9.28 | 21.91 | 32.72 | 45.18 | ||||||||||||||
DPS (IDR) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | ||||||||||||||
PPOP PS (IDR) | 35.71 | 34.98 | 97.65 | 123.30 | 150.13 | ||||||||||||||
BVPS (IDR) | 603.11 | 614.81 | 636.72 | 669.43 | 714.61 | ||||||||||||||
ABVPS (IDR) | 603.11 | 614.81 | 636.72 | 669.43 | 714.61 | ||||||||||||||
NTAPS (IDR) | 603.11 | 614.81 | 636.72 | 669.43 | 714.61 | ||||||||||||||
Valuations and ratios | |||||||||||||||||||
Reported P/E (x) | 386.8 | 217.8 | 92.2 | 61.7 | 44.7 | ||||||||||||||
Normalised P/E (x) | 386.8 | 217.8 | 92.2 | 61.7 | 44.7 | ||||||||||||||
FD normalised P/E (x) | 386.8 | 217.8 | 92.2 | 61.7 | 44.7 | ||||||||||||||
Dividend yield (%) | – | – | – | – | – | ||||||||||||||
Price/book (x) | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||
Price/adjusted book (x) | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.8 | ||||||||||||||
Net interest margin (%) | 9.04 | 6.88 | 8.89 | 8.75 | 8.79 | ||||||||||||||
Yield on assets (%) | 10.82 | 9.10 | 11.74 | 11.61 | 11.55 | ||||||||||||||
Cost of int bearing liab (%) | 3.02 | 3.18 | 3.73 | 3.58 | 3.35 | ||||||||||||||
Net interest spread (%) | 7.80 | 5.92 | 8.01 | 8.03 | 8.19 | ||||||||||||||
Non-interest income (%) | 11.2 | 15.8 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 8.2 | ||||||||||||||
Cost to income (%) | 71.9 | 73.7 | 52.6 | 47.7 | 43.7 | ||||||||||||||
Effective tax rate (%) | 22.7 | 28.3 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | ||||||||||||||
Dividend payout (%) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||||||||||||||
ROE (%) | 0.9 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 6.5 | ||||||||||||||
ROA (%) | 0.38 | 0.52 | 0.97 | 1.23 | 1.48 | ||||||||||||||
Operating ROE (%) | 1.1 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 8.2 | ||||||||||||||
Operating ROA (%) | 0.49 | 0.72 | 1.21 | 1.53 | 1.85 | ||||||||||||||
Source: Company data, Verdhana estimates | |||||||||||||||||||
| Bank Jago - IDRbn | 1Q24 | 4Q24 | 1Q25 | QoQ (%) | YoY % | YTD-25 | YTD-24 | Y-Y % | 2025F | % FY25F |
| Int inc | 442 | 641 | 789 | 23.1 | 78.3 | 789 | 442 | 78.3 | 3,367 | 23.4 |
| Int exp | 97 | 164 | 197 | 20.1 | 102.4 | 197 | 97 | 102.4 | 817 | 24.2 |
| NII | 345 | 476 | 591 | 24.2 | 71.5 | 591 | 345 | 71.5 | 2,550 | 23.2 |
| Non-int inc | 60 | 80 | 98 | 22.0 | 61.6 | 98 | 60 | 61.6 | 303 | 32.2 |
| Total op inc | 405 | 556 | 689 | 23.9 | 70.0 | 689 | 405 | 70.0 | 2,852 | 24.2 |
| Non-int exp | 325 | 352 | 388 | 10.2 | 19.5 | 388 | 325 | 19.5 | 1,499 | 25.9 |
| PPOP | 81 | 204 | 301 | 47.6 | 273.2 | 301 | 81 | 273.2 | 1,353 | 22.2 |
| Prov expense | 53 | 134 | 224 | 66.5 | 324.1 | 224 | 53 | 324.1 | 974 | 23.0 |
| PBT | 28 | 69 | 77 | 11.5 | 177.7 | 77 | 28 | 177.7 | 379 | 20.4 |
| NP | 22 | 43 | 60 | 41.2 | 177.7 | 60 | 22 | 177.7 | 304 | 19.9 |
| Bank Jago Margins % | 1Q24 | 4Q24 | 1Q25 |
| Asset yield | 8.9 | 10.1 | 11.3 |
| Cost of fund | 3.1 | 3.6 | 3.8 |
| Spread | 5.9 | 6.5 | 7.5 |
| NIM % | 7.0 | 7.5 | 8.4 |
| Bank Jago - Ratios % | 1Q24 | 4Q24 | 1Q25 |
| LDR % | 108.2 | 94.1 | 94.5 |
| Loan yoy | 31.6 | 36.0 | 41.9 |
| Loan qoq | 9.6 | 2.6 | 14.4 |
| Deposit yoy | 42.2 | 55.8 | 62.5 |
| Deposit qoq | 9.4 | 11.0 | 14.0 |
| CASA % | 62.7 | 53.0 | 53.7 |
| CIR % | 80.1 | 63.3 | 56.3 |
| CAR % | 55.0 | 44.4 | 36.4 |
| ROAE % | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.8 |
| ROAA % | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| BVPS (IDR/share) | 605 | 615 | 620 |
| NPL % | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.3 |
| LLR % | 1.3 | 1.6 | 2.2 |
| LAR % | 3.9 | 3.8 | 5.1 |
| LAR Cov % | 32.8 | 43.0 | 43.6 |
| Credit costs % | 1.5 | 3.1 | 4.7 |
| Bank Jago - IDRbn | 1Q24 | 4Q24 | 1Q25 | QoQ (%) | YoY % | YTD-25 |
| Deposits | 13,196 | 18,806 | 21,441 | 14.0 | 62.5 | 14.0 |
| CASA | 8,275 | 9,958 | 11,507 | 15.6 | 39.1 | 15.6 |
| TD | 4,920 | 8,848 | 9,934 | 12.3 | 101.9 | 12.3 |
| CASA ratio % | 62.7 | 53.0 | 53.7 | |||
| Loans | 14,272 | 17,701 | 20,258 | 14.4 | 41.9 | 14.4 |
| Loan NIM % | 13.0 | 16.0 | 17.0 |
INVESTMENT RATINGS
A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general.
GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared by PT Verdhana Sekuritas Indonesia (“PTVSI”) a securities company registered in Indonesia, supervised by Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK) and a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).
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ANALYST CERTIFICATION
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| Rating Remains | Neutral |
| Target price Reduced from IDR 3,000 | IDR 2,275 |
| Closing price 21 May 2025 | IDR 2,020 |
| Implied upside | +12.6% |
| Market Cap (USD mn) | 1,691.3 |
| ADT (USD mn) | 0.9 |
M cap (USDmn) | 1,691.3 |
Free float (%) | 26.8 |
3-mth ADT (USDmn) | 0.9 |
(%) | 1M | 3M | 12M |
Absolute (IDR) | 20.6 | 0.0 | -14.0 |
Absolute (USD) | 23.6 | -0.5 | -16.1 |
Rel to Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index | 9.8 | -5.0 | -13.4 |
Erwin Wijaya (erwin.wijaya@verdhana.id)
saya
BBCA’s bank-only Jul-24 earnings of IDR4.9tr (+1% m-m / +17% y-y) brings YTD Jul-24 headline profit to
Based on the Indonesia government’s latest 2025 budget, we think there will potentially be less exposure to
BBNI released its 1H24 results with headline profit of IDR10.7tn (+3.8% y-y), accounting for 50% of our FY24
BBRI posted its Jul-24 bank-only results, which showed decent improvement
Rolling forward to 2025F book-value; raise TP to IDR6,300
It is considered as the largest privately owned bank in Indonesia.