BMRI released its bank-only Apr-25 results. Given that April was shorter than other months due to the Eid holidays, the typical monthly interest income or expenses for Apr are lower (assuming there are no changes in rates) than other months. In this note, we look at YTD Apr-25 bank-only results, which overall demonstrated decent operating results despite still challenging macroeconomic trends. Post results, we reiterate our Buy rating on the stock with TP of IDR7,600.

Bank-only Apr-25 results summary

Net interest income stood at IDR6.4tn (-2% m-m; +4% y-y), with gross interest income of IDR10.1tn (-2% m-m; +13% y-y), and gross interest expenses of IDR3.7tn (flat m-m; +31% y-y). This brings YTD Apr-25 NII to IDR25.4tn (+6% y-y). Meanwhile, PPOP slipped to IDR5.1tn (-12% m-m; -10% y-y), bringing YTD Apr-25 PPOP to IDR21.8tn (-1% y-y). In Apr 25, BMRI booked credit costs of IDR0.8tn (implying 70bp vs 80bp in Apr 24). This brings YTD Apr-25 CoC to IDR3.0tn (-9% y-y) – implying YTD CoC of 70bp (-20bp y-y). As a result, BMRI implied YTD NIM and risk-adjusted NIM stood at 4.3% (-40bp y-y) and 3.8% (-20bp y-y), respectively. So far, we have not seen meaningful asset yield uplift despite still relatively tight liquidity in the banking system. Bank-only Apr-25 net profit reached IDR3.6tn (-12% m-m; -10% y-y), bringing YTD Apr-25 profit to IDR15.2tn (+1% y-y). Overall, implied balance sheet ROAA stood at 2.2%, with balance sheet ROAE of 18.7%.

On the balance sheet, BMRI booked loan growth of +15% y-y (flat YTD), while deposits grew by 15% y-y (+7% YTD), with growth coming mostly from Time Deposits (TD) +23% y-y / +19% YTD. Current Accounts (CA) and Savings Accounts (SA) also grew by 14% y-y (+5% YTD) and 11% y-y (+2% YTD), resulting in a CASA ratio of 78% and LDR of 92.3% (vs 91.7% in Apr-24). Loan-Loss-Reserve (LLR) stood at 3.0% (-60bp y-y / +10bp YTD). This suggests a better earnings profile for the bank (i.e., it doesn’t have to rely on lower LLR to boost profits).

Valuation and risks

We derive our TP of IDR7,600 based on a DuPont analysis, assuming a risk-free rate of 6.5%, an equity risk premium of 7.8%, growth of 11.0%, beta 1.05x and a CAR-adjusted ROAE of 19.5%. We also use 2025F book as reference. The implied multiples at our TP are 2.3x 2025F book and 12.4x 2025F earnings (compared to current multiples of 2.5x and 13.7x, respectively). Key risks to our view are worsening macroeconomic trends, unfavorable regulatory changes, tighter liquidity competition (which would increase funding costs), worsening credit quality (which would raise credit costs), and higher opex.

Fig. 1: BMRI YTD Y-Y performance %

Fig. 3: BMRI – LLR vs 12MMA WO %

Fig. 4: BMRI – 12MMA CoC vs 12MMA WO %

INVESTMENT RATINGS
A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general. 

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Erwin Wijaya (erwin.wijaya@verdhana.id)