BMRI has released its bank-only Feb-25 results. As February is the shortest month of the year, February interest income and/or expenses are typically lower (assuming there are no changes in rates) than other months. In this note, we look at BMRI’s YTD Feb-25 bank-only results, which overall demonstrates the bank’s satisfactory operating results despite still challenging macroeconomic conditions. Post the results, we reiterate our Buy rating with an unchangedTP of IDR7,600.

Bank-only Feb-25 results summary

Net interest income stood at IDR6.0tn (-8% m-m; +2% y-y) in Feb-25, with gross interest income of IDR9.3tn (-7% m-m; +11% y-y) and gross interest expenses of IDR3.3tn (-4% m-m; +32% y-y). This brings YTD Feb-25 NII to IDR12.6tn (+7% y-y). Meanwhile, PPOP slipped slightly to IDR5.4tn (-3% m-m; +5% y-y) in Feb-25, bringing YTD Feb-25 PPOP to IDR10.9tn (+4% y-y). In Feb-25, BMRI booked higher credit costs of IDR0.9tn (or 80bp vs 110bp in Feb-24). This brings YTD Feb-25 CoC to IDR1.5tn (-8% y-y), or YTD CoC of 70bp (-20bp y-y). As a result, BMRI’s implied YTD NIM and risk-adj NIM stood at 4.3% (-30bp y-y) and 3.8% (-10bp y-y) respectively. So far, we have not seen any meaningful asset yield rise despite still relatively tight liquidity in the banking system. Bank-only Feb-25 net profit reached IDR3.6tn (-11% m-m; +8% y-y), bringing YTD Feb-25 profit to IDR7.6tn (+6% y-y). Overall, the implied balance sheet ROAA stood at 2.2% in Feb-25, with balance sheet ROAE at 16.3%.

On the balance sheet, BMRI booked loan growth of +19% y-y (flat YTD) in Feb-25 while deposits grew by 17% y-y (+7% YTD), with growth coming mostly from Time Deposit (TD) +31% y-y / +18% YTD. Current Account (CA) and Savings Account (SA) also grew a respective 13% y-y (+5% YTD) and 15% y-y (+2% YTD), resulting in a CASA ratio of 78.2% and a LDR of 92.3% (vs 90.7% in Feb-24). Loan-Loss-Reserve (LLR) stood at 3.0% (-80bp y-y / +10bp YTD) in Feb-25. This suggests an improved earnings profile for the bank (i.e. it does not have to rely on a lower LLR to boost profits).

Valuation and risks

We derive our TP of IDR7,600 based on a DuPont analysis, assuming a risk-free rate of 6.5%, an equity risk premium of 7.8%, growth of 11.0%, beta 1.05x and a CAR-adjusted ROAE of 19.5%. We also use 2025F book as reference. The implied multiples at our TP are 2.3x 2025F book and 12.4x 2025F earnings (compared to current multiples of 2.5x and 13.7x, respectively). Key risks to our view are worsening macroeconomic trends, unfavorable regulatory changes, tighter liquidity competition (which would increase funding costs), worsening credit quality (which would raise credit costs), and higher opex.

Fig. 1: BMRI YTD Y-Y Performance %

Fig. 4: BMRI margin %

Fig. 5: BMRI LLR vs 12MMA write off %

Fig. 6: BMRI 12MMA CoC vs 12MMA write off %

INVESTMENT RATINGS
A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general. 

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Erwin Wijaya (erwin.wijaya@verdhana.id)