Bank Central Asia BBCA IJ - Buy - Solid YTD Jul-24 results
BBCA’s bank-only Jul-24 earnings of IDR4.9tr (+1% m-m / +17% y-y) brings YTD Jul-24 headline profit to
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BBNI released its bank-only Apr-25 results. Given that April was shorter than other months due to the Eid holidays, the typical monthly interest income or expense in April tends to be lower (assuming there are are no changes in interest rates) than other months. In this note, we look at YTD Apr-25 bank-only results, which overall demonstrate decent operating results despite still challenging macroeconomic trends. Post results, we reiterate our Buy rating on the stock with a target price of IDR6,250.
Bank-only Apr-25 results summary
In April 2025, BBNI’s net interest income (NII) stood at IDR3.1tn (-12% m-m; -2% y-y), with gross interest income at IDR5.3tn (-7% m-m; +3% y-y) and gross interest expenses at IDR2.3tn (+1% m-m; +4% y-y). This brought YTD Apr-25 NII to IDR12.6tn (+3% y-y). Meanwhile, pre-provisioning operating profit (PPOP) dropped to IDR2.5tn (-18% m-m; +5% y-y) in April 2025, bringing YTD Apr-25 PPOP to IDR10.5tn (flat y-y). Credit costs (CoC) jumped significantly to IDR737bn (implying 120bp vs 90bp in Apr 24). This brings YTD Apr-25 CoC to IDR2.2tn (+1% y-y) – implying YTD CoC of 90bp (-10bp y-y). As a result, BBNI’s implied YTD net interest margin (NIM) and risk-adjusted NIM stood at 3.7% (flat y-y) and 3.1% (+10bp y-y), respectively. So far, we have not seen a meaningful rise in asset yields despite still relatively tight liquidity in the banking system. BBNI’s bank-only April 2025 net profit reached IDR1.5tn (-28% m-m; -5% y-y), bringing YTD April 2025 net profit to IDR6.9tn (flat y-y). Overall, the implied balance sheet ROAA stood at 1.6%, with balance sheet ROAE at 11.3%.
On the balance sheet, BBNI booked loan growth of +8% y-y (-1% YTD) in April 2025 while deposits dipped slightly -1% y-y (+2% YTD). The decline was mostly due to the decline in Time Deposit (TD) -7% y-y / -3% YTD. Current Account (CA) also slipped by -3% y-y / +9% YTD, which resulted in a CASA ratio of 72% and LDR of 93% (vs 86% a year ago or 97% Dec-24). Loan-Loss-Reserve (LLR) has been relatively stable at a ~5.0-5.2% range on a YTD basis (-150bp y-y / flat YTD). This suggests stability in LLR, in part due to declined loans on a YTD basis, and thus an improved earnings profile for the bank (i.e. it does not have to rely on a lower LLR to boost profits).
Valuation and risks
We derive our TP of IDR6,250 based on a DuPont analysis, assuming a risk-free rate of 6.5%, an equity risk premium of 7.8%, growth of 8.5%, beta 1.0x and a CAR-adjusted ROAE of 16.5%. We also use 2025F book as reference. The implied multiples at our TP are 1.3x 2025F book and 10.6x 2025F earnings (compared to current multiples of 1.0x and 8.1x, respectively). Key risks to our view are worsening macroeconomic trends, unfavorable regulatory changes, and tighter liquidity competition (which would increase funding cost), and worsening credit quality (which would raise credit costs), and higher opex.
Fig. 1: BBNI YTD Y-Y performance %
Fig. 2: BBNI monthly results
| BNI - Monthly IDRbn | Apr-24 | Dec-24 | Mar-25 | Apr-25 | M-M | Y-Y | Q-Q | YTD-25 | YTD-24 | Y-Y | % of FY25F | FY25F |
| Gross Interest Income | 5,205 | 6,118 | 5,746 | 5,346 | -7.0% | 2.7% | -14% | 21,577 | 20,761 | 4% | 28% | 78,105 |
| Gross Interest Expenses | 2,197 | 2,245 | 2,270 | 2,281 | 0.5% | 3.8% | 86% | 8,943 | 8,554 | 5% | 26% | 33,756 |
| NII | 3,008 | 3,873 | 3,476 | 3,065 | -11.8% | 1.9% | 186% | 12,634 | 12,207 | 3% | 28% | 44,349 |
| PPOP | 2,417 | 3,238 | 3,078 | 2,539 | -17.5% | 5.1% | 286% | 10,527 | 10,475 | 0% | 29% | 36,835 |
| Provision exp | 532 | 1,141 | 540 | 737 | 36.5% | 38.5% | 386% | 2,246 | 2,228 | 1% | 23% | 9,729 |
| Net profit | 1,575 | 1,394 | 2,084 | 1,494 | -28.3% | -5.1% | 486% | 6,872 | 6,864 | 0% | 31% | 21,891 |
| Comprehensive profit | 402 | 2,614 | 1,884 | 2,164 | 14.8% | 438.1% | 586% | 8,281 | 5,680 | 46% | ||
| YTD loan growth | 2.1% | 10.7% | -1.5% | -0.5% | ||||||||
| Y-Y loan growth | 12.9% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 7.9% | ||||||||
| M-M loan growth | 2.4% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 1.0% | ||||||||
| YTD deposit growth | 2.2% | -1.1% | 1.6% | 2.4% | ||||||||
| Y-Y deposit growth | 11.5% | -1.1% | 4.5% | -0.9% | ||||||||
| M-M deposit growth | 6.3% | 1.1% | 4.0% | 0.7% | ||||||||
| Asset yield (annualised) | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | ||||||||
| COF (annualised) | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | ||||||||
| NIM (annualised) | 3.7% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.7% | ||||||
| Credit cost (annualised) | 0.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.0% | ||||||
| Risk-adj NIM | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | ||||||
| LDR | 85.7% | 96.0% | 93.1% | 93.3% | ||||||||
| LLR | 6.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | ||||||||
| CASA ratio | 70.3% | 70.4% | 71.1% | 72.0% | ||||||||
| Monthly CIR | 44.2% | 45.3% | 45.0% | 45.3% | ||||||||
| B/S ROAE (annualised) | 13.4% | 10.7% | 15.3% | 11.3% | ||||||||
| B/S ROAA (annualised) | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 1.6% | ||||||||
| Loan-to-CASA | 119.2% | 132.5% | 129.6% | 128.5% | ||||||||
| BBNI - B/S IDRbn | Apr-24 | Dec-24 | Mar-25 | Apr-25 | M-M | Y-Y | YTD-25 | YTD-24 | ||||
| Total assets IDRbn | 1,069,552 | 1,084,425 | 1,098,206 | 1,089,123 | -0.8% | 1.8% | 0.4% | 2.0% | ||||
| Gross Loans IDRbn | 702,167 | 761,550 | 750,425 | 757,579 | 1.0% | 7.9% | -0.5% | 2.1% | ||||
| LLR IDRbn | 45,839 | 38,329 | 38,673 | 37,722 | -2.5% | -17.7% | -1.6% | -2.3% | ||||
| Net loans IDRbn | 656,328 | 723,222 | 711,752 | 719,857 | 1.1% | 9.7% | -0.5% | 2.4% | ||||
| Deposits | 819,324 | 792,672 | 805,642 | 811,640 | 0.7% | -0.9% | 2.4% | 2.2% | ||||
| - CA IDRbn | 339,540 | 301,489 | 315,526 | 328,824 | 4.2% | -3.2% | 9.1% | -1.0% | ||||
| - SA IDRbn | 236,101 | 256,705 | 257,009 | 255,316 | -0.7% | 8.1% | -0.5% | 2.2% | ||||
| - TD IDRbn | 243,682 | 234,479 | 233,107 | 227,500 | -2.4% | -6.6% | -3.0% | 7.1% | ||||
| CASA IDRbn | 575,641 | 558,193 | 572,535 | 584,140 | 2.0% | 1.5% | 4.6% | 0.3% | ||||
| Equities IDRbn | 141,258 | 158,102 | 164,245 | 152,458 | -7.2% | 7.9% | -3.6% | -3.2% |
Fig. 3: BBNI LLR vs 12MMA write-offs (WO) %
Fig. 4: BBNI 12MMA CoC vs 12MMA WO %
INVESTMENT RATINGS
A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general.
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| Rating Remains | Buy |
| Target price Remains | IDR 6,250 |
| Closing price 26 May 2025 | IDR 4,500 |
Erwin Wijaya (erwin.wijaya@verdhana.id)
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