Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) (Buy) - Soft 9M25 results

Soft 9M25 results

BBNI released its consolidated 9M25 results that were slightly behind our FY25F projections. The bank booked 3Q25 profit of IDR5.0tn (+7% q-q, -11% y-y), bringing 9M25 headline profit to IDR15.1tn (-7% y-y) – accounting for ~72% of our FY25F estimates. We believe that liquidity for the remainder of 2025F will continue to gradually improve (and thus funding cost should also improve or not worsen), as we expect higher government spending in order to rejuvenate economic growth. In addition, combined with more placement of government monies (i.e., from the MoF) as well as Danatara’s placement of its dividend receipts into SOE banks (as witnessed in the growth rate of the bank’s deposits), these should translate into higher M2 growth (+7.6% in Aug-25) and further ease liquidity concerns in the banking system, in our view.

During the earnings call, management revised down its NIM guidance for the second time this year from 4.0-4.2% (initially) to ~3.8% (post 1H25 results) and now to ~3.7% for FY25F, while loan growth and credit cost assumptions are unchanged. Management also commented on the bank’s readiness to support the Village Cooperatives (Koperasi Merah Putih) scheme, as long as it aligns with the bank’s policy and values.

3Q25 results summary

Net interest income (NII) reached IDR10.0tn (+3% q-q; -8% y-y), bringing 9M25 NII to IDR29.8tn (-3% y-y) and accounting for ~68% of our FY25F projection.
PPOP reached IDR8.0tn (+1% q-q; -8% y-y), bringing 9M25 PPOP to IDR24.1tn (-4% y-y) and accounting for ~67% of our FY25F projection.
The bank booked credit costs of IDR1.8tn, implying CoC of 90bp (-20bp q-q, -10bp y-y). As a result, NIM and risk-adjusted NIM stood at 3.5% (-10bp q-q; -90bp y-y) and 2.8% (flat q-q; -80bp y-y), respectively. Given our view that liquidity in 2H25F will improve, we expect NIM and CoF to also improve or not worsen.
On the bottom line, profit reached IDR5.0tn (-7% q-q; -11% y-y), bringing 9M25 NP to IDR15.1tn (-7% y-y) and accounting for ~72% of our FY25F projection.
On the balance sheet, BBNI booked loan growth and deposit growth of 11% y-y (+5% YTD) and 21% y-y (+16% YTD), respectively. Loan growth was predominantly from SMEs (+12% y-y) and corporate (+10% y-y), while deposit growth mostly came from TD (+40% y-y) due to MoF and Danantara (unlisted) placements; current accounts (+14% y-y) and savings accounts (+13% y-y). Given these, the bank reported an elevated CASA ratio of 65.6% (-640bp q-q; -480bp y-y), and a loans-to-deposits ratio (LDR) of 86.9% (+40bp q-q; -860bp y-y).

Valuation and risks

Our TP of IDR5,500 is based on a DuPont analysis with key parameters as follows: a risk-free rate of 6.5%, an equity risk premium of 7.8%, growth of 8.5%, beta of 1.04x and a CAR-adjusted ROAE of 16.0%. Our TP implies 1.2x FY25F P/B (vs current price valuation of 1.0x) and 9.7x FY25F P/E (vs current price valuation of 7.7x). Key risks are worsening macroeconomic trends, tighter liquidity competition, and/or higher credit costs and opex growth.

Fig. 2: BBNI – quarterly results

BBNI IDRbn	3Q24	4Q24	2Q25	3Q25	Q-Q %	Y-Y %	YTD 25	YTD 24	Y-Y %	2025F	vsFY25F %
NII	10,795	11,551	9,691	9,975	2.9	(7.6)	29,834	30,653	(2.7)	43,830	68%
Total op inc	16,279	18,240	14,874	16,383	10.1	0.6	46,505	46,275	0.5	66,624	70%
PPOP	8,753	9,335	7,941	8,022	1.0	(8.4)	24,108	25,067	(3.8)	35,796	67%
Prov	1,786	2,618	2,122	1,840	(13.3)	3.0	5,555	5,169	7.5	9,683	57%
PBT	6,967	6,718	5,819	6,182	6.2	(11.3)	18,553	19,898	(6.8)	26,113	71%
NP	5,617	5,129	4,714	5,021	6.5	(10.6)	15,115	16,308	(7.3)	21,054	72%
					Q-Q %	Y-Y %	YTD-25	YTD-24
Gross Loans	735,018	775,872	778,681	812,195	4.3	10.5	4.7%	5.7%
Deposits	769,739	805,511	899,865	934,326	3.8	21.4	16.0%	-5.1%
- Current accounts	302,260	305,734	381,639	344,455	(9.7)	14.0	12.7%	-12.5%
- Savings Accounts	238,934	257,544	265,915	268,928	1.1	12.6	4.4%	3.0%
- Time deposits	228,545	242,233	252,311	320,943	27.2	40.4	32.5%	-2.0%
Equities	155,139	160,201	158,112	164,500	4.0	6.0	2.7%	4.9%
Total assets	1,068,080	1,129,806	1,201,653	1,269,486	5.6	18.9	12.4%	-1.7%
CASA %	70.3	69.9	72.0	65.6
Asset to equity x	6.9	7.1	7.6	7.7

Source: Company data, Verdhana research

Fig. 3: BBNI – quarterly ratios

Ratios %	3Q24	4Q24	2Q25	3Q25
Gross Yield %	6.7	7.0	6.2	6.1
COF %	3.0	3.1	3.1	3.1
Spread %	3.8	3.9	3.2	3.0
NIM	4.4	4.5	3.6	3.5
Loan yoy %	9.5	11.6	7.1	10.5
Loan qoq %	1.1	5.6	1.7	4.3
Deposit yoy %	3.0	(0.6)	16.5	21.4
Deposit qoq %	(0.3)	4.6	9.8	3.8
ROAE	14.9	13.0	11.6	12.5
CAR	22.1	21.7	21.3	19.5
CIR	46.2	48.8	46.6	51.0
LDR	95.5	96.3	86.5	86.9
CoC	1.0	1.4	1.1	0.9
NPL	2.0	2.0	1.9	2.0
NPL cov	281.4	253.4	241.1	220.9
LARs	11.8	10.3	11.0	10.4
LAR Cov	46.9	48.3	42.7	41.5
LLR	5.6	5.0	4.7	4.3
Risk-adj NIM %	3.6	3.5	2.8	2.8

Source: Company data, Verdhana research

Fig. 4: BBNI – DuPont analysis

BBNI Dupont % of assets	3Q24	4Q24	2Q25	3Q25
Int inc	7.0	7.0	6.1	6.0
Int exp	3.0	2.8	2.8	2.8
Net int inc	4.0	4.2	3.3	3.2
Other income	2.0	2.4	1.8	2.1
Op. inc	6.1	6.6	5.1	5.3
Opex	2.8	3.2	2.4	2.7
PPOP	3.3	3.4	2.7	2.6
Provisions	0.7	1.0	0.7	0.6
PBT	2.6	2.4	2.0	2.0
Net profit	2.1	1.9	1.6	1.6
Assets to Equities	6.8	6.7	6.9	7.3
ROAE	14.2	12.5	11.1	11.9

Source: Company data, Verdhana research

INVESTMENT RATINGS
A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general.

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Rating Table

Rating Remains	Buy
Target price Remains	IDR 5,500
Closing price 23 October 2025	IDR 4,240

Research Analysts

Erwin Wijaya (erwin.wijaya@verdhana.id)

Tags: BANKS, Bank Negara Indonesia, BBNI, BBNI JK, BBNI IJ, Erwin Wijaya

Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) (Buy) - Soft 9M25 results

Soft 9M25 results

Fig. 1: BBNI – 9M25 y-y summary %

Fig. 2: BBNI – quarterly results

Fig. 3: BBNI – quarterly ratios

Fig. 4: BBNI – DuPont analysis

Fig. 5: BBNI – 12MMA CoC vs 12MMA WO %

Fig. 6: BBNI – LLR vs 12MMA WO %

Rating Table

Research Analysts

yudi Administrator

Bank Central Asia BBCA IJ - Buy - Solid YTD Jul-24 results

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Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI IJ - Buy - Operating 1H24 results were below

Bank Rakyat Indonesia -BBRI IJ- Buy - YTD Jul-24 bank only results - steady progress

Bank Rakyat Indonesia -BBRI IJ- Buy - ROAE uptrend on positive micro trends

Bank Central Asia -BBCA IJ- Buy - Steady growth reiterate Buy new TP IDR13200

Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) (Buy) - Soft 9M25 results

Fig. 1: BBNI – 9M25 y-y summary %

Fig. 2: BBNI – quarterly results

Fig. 3: BBNI – quarterly ratios

Fig. 4: BBNI – DuPont analysis

Fig. 5: BBNI – 12MMA CoC vs 12MMA WO %

Fig. 6: BBNI – LLR vs 12MMA WO %

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