BBNI has released its bank-only Aug-25 results, which came in behind our projections (and Bloomberg consensus estimates). On an YTD Aug-25 basis, the bank reported a profit of IDR13.4tn (-6% y-y). We believe that liquidity for the remainder of 2025 will gradually improve (and thus funding cost should also improve or not worsen), as we expect higher government spending in order to rejuvenate economic growth. In addition, combined with more placement of government monies (i.e., from the MoF) as well as Danatara’s placement of its dividend receipts into SOE banks (as witnessed in the growth rate of the bank’s deposits), these should translate into higher M2 growth (+6.5% in Jul-25) and ease liquidity concerns in the banking system, in our view.

Bank-only Aug-25 results summary

For Aug-25, net interest income stood at IDR3.1tn (-5% m-m; -10% y-y), with gross interest income of IDR5.7tn (-2% m-m; +5% y-y), and gross interest expenses of IDR2.6tn (+2% m-m; +28% y-y). This brings YTD Aug-25 NII to IDR25.3tn (-1% y-y). Meanwhile, PPOP slipped to IDR2.4tn (-8% m-m; -11% y-y), bringing YTD Aug-25 PPOP to IDR20.8tn (-3% y-y). In Aug-25, BBNI booked credit costs of IDR596bn (implying 90bp, -20bp in Aug-24), bringing YTD Aug-25 CoC to IDR4.7tn (+4% y-y) – implying YTD CoC of 90bp (-10bp y-y). As a result, BBNI’s implied YTD NIM and risk-adjusted NIM stood at 3.6% (-40bp y-y) and 3.0% (-30bp y-y), respectively. Bank-only Aug-25 net profit reached IDR1.5tn (-11% m-m; -10% y-y), bringing YTD Aug-25 profit to IDR13.4tn (-6% y-y). Overall, implied balance sheet ROAA stood at 1.6%, with balance sheet ROAE of 11.5%.

On the balance sheet, BBNI booked loan growth of 8% y-y (+1% YTD), while deposits grew 17% y-y (+10% YTD), with growth coming mostly from Current Accounts (CA) +30% y-y (+22% YTD). Savings Accounts (SA) and Time Deposits (TD) also grew by 10% y-y (+3% YTD) and 7% y-y (+2% YTD), resulting in a CASA ratio of 72.6% and LDR of 88.4% (vs 95.3% in Aug-24). Loan-Loss-Reserve (LLR) stood at 4.6% (-110bp y-y / -40bp YTD).

Valuation and risks

We derive our TP of IDR5,500 using DuPont analysis with key parameters as follows: a risk-free rate of 6.5%, an equity risk premium of 7.8%, growth of 8.5%, beta of 1.04x and a CAR-adjusted ROAE of 16.0%. Our TP implies 1.2x FY25F P/B (vs current price valuation of 1.0x) and 9.7x FY25F P/E (vs current price valuation of 7.7x). Key risks are worsening macroeconomic trends, tighter liquidity competition, and/or higher credit costs and opex growth.

Fig. 1: BBNI YTD y-y performance %

Fig. 3: BBNI 12MMA CoC vs 12MMA WO %

Fig. 4: BBNI LLR vs 12MMA WO %

INVESTMENT RATINGS
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Erwin Wijaya (erwin.wijaya@verdhana.id)