Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) (Buy) - FY25 results inline

FY25 results inline

Earnings adjustments by 0.5-0.9% for FY26-27F

BBRI delivered FY25 results, broadly in line with our expectations, reporting a net profit of IDR56.7tn (-5.8% y-y), equivalent to ~100% of our FY25F forecast. We attribute these soft results to: 1) elevated credit costs (CoC) of 3.4% (+63bp y-y); and 2) a change in the interest earnings asset mix as well as loan mix, which resulted in a slight decline in gross yields to ~10.8% (from ~11.1% a year ago).

Although BBRI’s headline consolidated profit for FY25 was down by ~6% y-y, we see a stabilizing write-off trend on a q-q basis. This should pave the way for 2026 performance, we believe. For this reason, we see limited downside risks to earnings as well as the share price. We expect the bank to pay similar dividend of ~80-85%, which would give a yield of ~8-9%. Thus, combined with earnings improvement of ~1-2%, the implied potential return would be ~10-11% (assuming no multiple re-rating). Management guided for FY26E loan growth of 7-9%, NIM of 7.4-7.8%, CoC of 2.9-3.2%, and CIR 41-43%. Refer to page four for details on 4Q25 results.

Earnings adjustments by 0.5-0.9% for FY26-27F

Post-results, we revise our FY26-27F earnings and introduce FY28F estimates. We expect earnings momentum to extend into 2026F, supporting sustained high dividend payouts. We expect that this will be driven by stronger loan growth (sector credit growth of 9-11% in 2026F vs 8-10% in 2025), improving business credit demand, better government policy execution, and stabilizing lending rates near post-3Q25 trough levels. Accordingly, we adjust FY26-27F earnings by ~0.5-0.9%, while maintaining our TP at IDR4,500.

Valuation and risks

We derive our TP of IDR4,500 (unchanged) using DuPont analysis (methodology unchanged), with key parameters as follows: a risk-free rate of 6.5%, an equity risk premium of 7.8%, beta of 0.9x and a CAR-adjusted ROAE of 18.0% (all unchanged). Our TP implies 2.1x 2026F P/B (vs 1.8x currently) and 11.6x 2026F P/E (vs 10.1x currently). Risks are worsening macroeconomic trends, unfavorable regulatory changes, and tighter liquidity competition, which could increase funding costs, worsening credit quality which would raise credit costs, and higher opex. Changes in management could affect the bank’ s write-off policies and thus, credit costs. This would ultimately affect the bank’s near-term earnings, in our view.

4Q25 results summary

NII rose to IDR39.5tn (+4.7% q-q; +8.8% y-y), bringing FY25 NII to IDR150.5tn (+5.9% y-y; ~98% of FY25F).
PPOP increased to IDR32.7tn (+15.1% q-q; +9.6% y-y), bringing FY25 PPOP to IDR119.4tn (-0.8 y-y; ~101% of FY25F).
Credit costs totaled IDR12.5tn, implying cost of capital (CoC) of 338bp (+49bp q-q; +63bp y-y) due to flood-related provisioning in Sumatra. Reported NIM improved to 8.1% (+30bp q-q; +10bp y-y), while risk-adjusted NIM declined to 5.2% (-10bp q-q; -40bp y-y). We expect NIM and CoF to improve or remain stable as liquidity conditions normalize in 2026F.
Net profit came in at IDR15.9tn (+9.5% q-q; +5.2% y-y), bringing FY25 earnings to IDR56.7tn (-5.8% y-y; ~100% of FY25F).
The bank’s balance sheet remained strong, with loans and deposits growing 12% y-y and 7% y-y, respectively. Loan growth was led by the commercial (+57% y-y) and corporate (+40% y-y) segments, while deposits were driven by CA (+20% y-y) and SA (+8% y-y) while TD (-4% y-y). CASA improved to 70.6% (+330bp y-y), while LDR also increased to ~104% (+500bp y-y).

Year-end 31 Dec FY25 FY26F FY27F FY28F
Currency (IDR) Actual Old New Old New Old New
PPOP (bn) 119,972 122,014 126,134 124,709 129,299 0 133,805
Reported net profit (bn) 56,652 58,431 58,694 59,023 59,583 0 60,136
Normalised net profit (bn) 56,652 58,431 58,694 59,023 59,583 0 60,136
FD normalised EPS 375.39 387.18 388.92 391.19 394.90 397.24
FD norm. EPS growth (%) -5.5 3.0 3.6 1.0 1.5 0.6
FD normalised P/E (x) 10.4 – 10.1 – 9.9 – 9.8
Price/adj. book (x) 1.8 – 1.8 – 1.7 – 1.7
Price/book (x) 1.8 – 1.8 – 1.7 – 1.7
Dividend yield (%) 8.8 – 8.2 – 8.4 – 8.6
ROE (%) 17.7 17.4 17.9 17.1 17.7 17.4
ROA (%) 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4
Source: Company data, Verdhana estimates

Key data on Bank Rakyat Indonesia

Profit and loss (IDRbn)
Year-end 31 Dec	FY24	FY25	FY26F	FY27F	FY28F
Interest income	199,266	207,783	219,424	227,304	237,085
Interest expense	-56,608	-57,285	-57,812	-60,527	-63,818
Net interest income	142,659	150,498	161,613	166,777	173,267
Net fees and commissions	20,391	21,447	22,678	24,265	25,964
Trading related profits	3,397	5,459	5,750	5,750	6,000
Other operating revenue	32,030	30,472	29,000	30,000	31,000
Non-interest income	55,818	57,378	57,428	60,015	62,964
Operating income	198,477	207,877	219,040	226,793	236,231
Depreciation	-5,843	-5,843	-5,847	-5,853	-5,860
Amortisation	0	0	0	0	0
Operating expenses	-34,057	-39,948	-41,418	-42,173	-42,950
Employee share expense	-38,617	-42,114	-45,643	-49,467	-53,616
Pre-provision op profit	119,960	119,972	126,134	129,299	133,805
Provisions for bad debt	-41,744	-46,724	-50,647	-52,575	-56,255
Other provision charges	0	0	0	0	0
Operating profit	78,216	73,248	75,486	76,724	77,550
Other non-op income	-964	-455	0	0	0
Associates & JCEs	0	0	0	0	0
Pre-tax profit	77,252	72,793	75,486	76,724	77,550
Income tax	-16,946	-15,660	-16,240	-16,506	-16,684
Net profit after tax	60,306	57,132	59,246	60,218	60,866
Minority interests	-362	-480	-552	-635	-730
Other items	0	0	0	0	0
Preferred dividends	0	0	0	0	0
Normalised NPAT	59,945	56,652	58,694	59,583	60,136
Extraordinary items	0	0	0	0	0
Reported NPAT	59,945	56,652	58,694	59,583	60,136
Dividends	-55,773	-52,021	-48,155	-49,890	-50,646
Transfer to reserves	4,171	4,631	10,540	9,693	9,491
Growth (%)
Net interest income	3.9	5.5	7.4	3.2	3.9
Non-interest income	21.5	2.8	0.1	4.5	4.9
Non-interest expenses	-3.7	17.3	3.7	1.8	1.8
Pre-provision earnings	12.8	0.0	5.1	2.5	3.5
Net profit	-0.3	-5.5	3.6	1.5	0.9
Normalised EPS	-0.3	-5.5	3.6	1.5	0.6
Normalised FDEPS	-0.3	-5.5	3.6	1.5	0.6
Loan growth	7.8	12.9	2.2	6.2	6.2
Interest earning assets	3.0	6.6	8.2	6.4	6.4
Interest bearing liabilities	1.8	7.5	8.6	7.0	7.0
Asset growth	1.4	7.2	7.2	6.0	6.1
Deposit growth	0.5	7.4	7.5	7.5	7.5
Source: Company data, Verdhana estimates

Balance sheet (IDRbn)
As at 31 Dec	FY24	FY25	FY26F	FY27F	FY28F
Cash and equivalents	29,784	32,044	89,140	95,825	103,012
Inter-bank lending	0	0	0	0	0
Deposits with central bank	88,879	31,930	88,820	95,481	102,643
Total securities	343,323	372,668	373,720	395,704	419,522
Other int earning assets	83,448	63,488	75,160	82,820	90,817
Gross loans	1,350,480	1,517,756	1,562,980	1,672,389	1,789,456
Less provisions	-76,903	-79,329	-93,091	-110,678	-130,287
Net loans	1,273,577	1,438,427	1,469,889	1,561,711	1,659,170
Long-term investments	8,077	8,835	394	472	550
Fixed assets	62,478	63,294	56,731	50,978	45,218
Goodwill	0	0	0	0	0
Other intangible assets	0	0	0	0	0
Other non IEAs	102,622	124,685	134,713	143,532	153,013
Total assets	1,992,187	2,135,371	2,288,568	2,426,524	2,573,944
Customer deposits	1,365,450	1,466,844	1,576,857	1,695,121	1,822,256
Bank deposits, CDs, debentures	72,226	86,436	121,303	130,400	140,180
Other int bearing liabilities	128,372	129,673	129,673	129,673	129,673
Total int bearing liabilities	1,566,047	1,682,953	1,827,833	1,955,195	2,092,109
Non-int bearing liabilities	102,825	121,477	121,724	121,990	122,276
Total liabilities	1,668,872	1,804,430	1,949,557	2,077,185	2,214,385
Minority interest	6,287	6,908	7,460	8,094	8,824
Common stock	83,458	83,524	83,524	83,524	83,524
Preferred stock	0	0	0	0	0
Retained earnings	218,032	222,663	230,181	239,874	249,364
Reserves for credit losses	0	0	0	0	0
Proposed dividends	0	0	0	0	0
Other equity	15,538	17,846	17,846	17,846	17,846
Shareholders' equity	317,028	324,034	331,551	341,244	350,735
Total liabilities and equity	1,992,187	2,135,371	2,288,568	2,426,524	2,573,944
Non-perf assets	38,102	45,884	48,786	52,201	55,855
Balance sheet ratios (%)
Loans to deposits	98.9	103.5	99.1	98.7	98.2
Equity to assets	15.9	15.2	14.5	14.1	13.6
Asset quality & capital
NPAs/gross loans (%)	2.8	3.0	3.1	3.1	3.1
Bad debt charge/gross loans (%)	3.09	3.08	3.24	3.14	3.14
Loss reserves/assets (%)	3.86	3.71	4.07	4.56	5.06
Loss reserves/NPAs (%)	201.8	172.9	190.8	212.0	233.3
Tier 1 capital ratio (%)	15.2	15.0	17.6	19.3	16.8
Total capital ratio (%)	16.1	15.8	18.3	20.1	17.5
Per share
Reported EPS (IDR)	397.30	375.48	389.01	394.90	397.24
Norm EPS (IDR)	397.30	375.48	389.01	394.90	397.24
FD norm EPS (IDR)	397.21	375.39	388.92	394.90	397.24
DPS (IDR)	369.65	344.78	319.16	329.56	334.55
PPOP PS (IDR)	795.07	795.14	835.98	856.96	883.87
BVPS (IDR)	2,101.18	2,147.61	2,197.43	2,254.13	2,316.82
ABVPS (IDR)	2,101.18	2,147.61	2,197.43	2,254.13	2,316.82
NTAPS (IDR)	2,101.18	2,147.61	2,197.43	2,254.13	2,316.82
Valuations and ratios
Reported P/E (x)	9.8	10.4	10.1	9.9	9.8
Normalised P/E (x)	9.8	10.4	10.1	9.9	9.8
FD normalised P/E (x)	9.8	10.4	10.1	9.9	9.8
Dividend yield (%)	9.5	8.8	8.2	8.4	8.6
Price/book (x)	1.9	1.8	1.8	1.7	1.7
Price/adjusted book (x)	1.9	1.8	1.8	1.7	1.7
Net interest margin (%)	7.96	8.01	8.01	7.71	7.52
Yield on assets (%)	11.11	11.06	10.88	10.50	10.29
Cost of int bearing liab (%)	3.65	3.53	3.29	3.20	3.15
Net interest spread (%)	7.47	7.53	7.58	7.30	7.14
Non-interest income (%)	28.1	27.6	26.2	26.5	26.7
Cost to income (%)	39.6	42.3	42.4	43.0	43.4
Effective tax rate (%)	21.9	21.5	21.5	21.5	21.5
Dividend payout (%)	93.0	91.8	82.0	83.7	84.2
ROE (%)	19.1	17.7	17.9	17.7	17.4
ROA (%)	3.03	2.75	2.65	2.53	2.41
Operating ROE (%)	24.9	22.9	23.0	22.8	22.4
Operating ROA (%)	3.95	3.55	3.41	3.25	3.10
Source: Company data, Verdhana estimates

Company profilePT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BBRI IJ) is one of the largest banks in Indonesia. It specialises in small scale and microfinance style borrowing and lending.

Valuation MethodologyWe derive our TP of IDR4,500 using DuPont analysis, with key parameters as follows: a risk-free rate of 6.5%, an equity risk premium of 7.8%, beta of 0.9x and a CAR-adjusted ROAE of 18.0%. Our TP implies 2.1x 2026F P/B and 11.6x 2026F P/E. The benchmark for the stock is the JCI.

Risks that may impede the achievement of the target priceRisks are worsening macroeconomic trends, unfavorable regulatory changes, and tighter liquidity competition, which could increase funding costs, worsening credit quality which would raise credit costs, and higher opex. Changes in management may affect the bank’s write-off policies and thus, credit costs. This would ultimately affect the bank’s near-term earnings, in our view.

ESGBRI has launched various activities and programs in its contribution towards the global commitments and the national objectives as stipulated in the Presidential Regulation Number 59 year 2017 which regulates the Implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals. BRI is the Chair of the Indonesian Sustainable Finance Initiative (IKBI) which aims to help the government’s efforts to achieve the SDGs. BRI prioritizes customers that offer environmentally friendly products / have environmental certifications. BRI collaborates with Bank Indonesia and the Indonesian Economic and Trade Office (Kantor Dagang dan Ekonomi Indonesia - KDEI) in Taiwan to organize education sessions for Indonesian migrant workers on theimportance of cashless remittance transfers. BRI collaborates / actively participates in programs at community, national- and global- levels to enhance the development of sustainable finance. These programs including METI, CDP Pilot Project, UNDP, ADLIGHT, NPAP and CASE Programs.

INVESTMENT RATINGS
A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general.

GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared by PT Verdhana Sekuritas Indonesia (“PTVSI”) a securities company registered in Indonesia, supervised by Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK) and a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).

This report is intended for client of PTVSI only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of PTVSI.

The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but PTVSI do not make any representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. The information in this report is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or condensed and it may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report. Any information, valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or targets herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report is published, and there is no assurance that future results or events will be consistent.

This report is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or financial products. PTVSI and its associates, its directors, and/or its employees may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in this report or it may or will engage in any securities transaction or other capital market services for the company (companies) mentioned herein.

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report and certifies that the views about the companies including their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

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Rating Table

Rating Remains	Buy
Target price Remains	IDR 4,500
Closing price 27 February 2026	IDR 3,910
Implied upside	+15.1%
Market Cap (USD mn)	35,004.2
ADT (USD mn)	53.9

Relative performance chart

Source: LSEG, Verdhana

M cap (USDmn)	35,004.2
Free float (%)	43.3
3-mth ADT (USDmn)	53.9

(%)	1M	3M	12M
Absolute (IDR)	2.4	4.5	7.7
Absolute (USD)	2.4	3.8	5.7
Rel to Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index	10.7	8.2	-19.3

Research Analysts

Erwin Wijaya (erwin.wijaya@verdhana.id)

Tags: BANKS, Bank Rakyat Indonesia, BBRI, BBRI JK, BBRI IJ, Erwin Wijaya

BBRI Consolidated IDRbn	4Q24	1Q25	2Q25	3Q25	4Q25	QoQ %	YoY %	YTD 2025	YTD 2024	YoY %	2025A	vs FY25F
Int inc	50,474	49,838	52,538	52,784	52,623	(0.3)	4.3	207,783	199,266	4.3	216,798	95.8
Int exp	14,173	13,987	15,115	15,068	13,116	(13.0)	(7.5)	57,285	57,209	0.1	63,606	90.1
NII	36,301	35,852	37,423	37,717	39,507	4.7	8.8	150,498	142,057	5.9	153,192	98.2
Total op inc	56,948	61,007	65,747	64,951	75,365	16.0	32.3	267,071	217,157	23.0	201,036	132.8
PPOP	29,836	29,894	28,379	28,400	32,694	15.1	9.6	119,366	120,339	(0.8)	118,662	100.6
Prov	9,303	12,276	10,996	10,317	12,511	21.3	34.5	46,100	41,758	10.4	47,032	98.0
PBT	20,533	17,618	17,383	18,083	20,183	11.6	(1.7)	73,267	78,581	(6.8)	71,630	102.3
NP	15,090	13,673	12,603	14,502	15,874	9.5	5.2	56,652	60,155	(5.8)	56,742	99.8
						QoQ %	YoY %	YTD 2025	YTD 2024
Total assets	1,992,983	2,098,229	2,106,371	2,123,447	2,135,371	0.6	7.1	7.1	1.4
Gross Loans	1,354,641	1,373,661	1,416,619	1,438,109	1,521,486	5.8	12.3	12.3	7.0
- Provisions	80,898	81,579	81,170	80,747	82,894	2.7	2.5	2.5	(0.1)
Net loans	1,273,743	1,292,081	1,335,449	1,357,362	1,438,592	6.0	12.9	12.9	7.5
Deposits	1,365,450	1,421,600	1,482,120	1,474,783	1,466,844	(0.5)	7.4	7.4	0.5
- Current accounts	374,554	391,613	414,483	435,071	448,204	3.0	19.7	19.7	8.2
- Saving accounts	544,427	543,337	556,463	562,551	587,586	4.5	7.9	7.9	3.1
- Time deposits	446,469	486,650	511,174	477,161	431,054	(9.7)	(3.5)	(3.5)	(7.8)
Equities	323,189	305,854	322,072	337,898	330,941	(2.1)	2.4	2.4	2.1
LARs	147,128	155,694	157,678	159,769	154,002	(3.6)	4.7	4.7	(7.4)

BBRI Dupont % of assets	4Q24	1Q25	2Q25	3Q25	4Q25
Int inc	10.21	9.75	10.00	9.98	9.88
Int exp	2.87	2.73	2.88	2.85	2.46
NII	7.34	7.01	7.12	7.13	7.42
Net premium inc	0.25	0.21	(0.12)	0.10	0.06
NII and net premi	7.60	7.22	7.00	7.24	7.48
Total op inc	11.52	11.93	12.51	12.28	14.16
PPOP	6.04	5.85	5.40	5.37	6.14
Prov	1.88	2.40	2.09	1.95	2.35
PBT	4.15	3.44	3.31	3.42	3.79
NP	3.05	2.67	2.40	2.74	2.98
Assets to Equities	6.06	6.50	6.70	6.41	6.37
ROAE	18.50	17.39	16.06	17.58	18.99

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) (Buy) - FY25 results inline

FY25 results inline

Key data on Bank Rakyat Indonesia

Fig. 1: BBRI FY25 y-y summary %

Fig. 2: BBRI quarterly results

Fig. 3: BBRI key ratios

Fig. 4: BBRI DuPont

Fig. 5: BBRI 12MMA CoC vs 12MMA WO %

Fig. 6: BBRI - LLR vs 12MMA WO %

Fig. 7: BBRI FY26-27F forecasts

Rating Table

Relative performance chart

Research Analysts

yudi Administrator

Bank Central Asia BBCA IJ - Buy - Solid YTD Jul-24 results

Bank Rakyat Indonesia -BBRI IJ- Buy - Towards more commercial micro

Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI IJ - Buy - Operating 1H24 results were below

Bank Rakyat Indonesia -BBRI IJ- Buy - YTD Jul-24 bank only results - steady progress

Bank Rakyat Indonesia -BBRI IJ- Buy - ROAE uptrend on positive micro trends

Bank Central Asia -BBCA IJ- Buy - Steady growth reiterate Buy new TP IDR13200

BBRI Consol - Ratios %	4Q24	1Q25	2Q25	3Q25	4Q25
Loans q-q	0.1	1.4	3.1	1.5	5.8
Loans y-y	7.0	5.0	6.0	6.3	12.3
Deposits q-q	0.2	4.1	4.3	(0.5)	(0.5)
Deposits y-y	0.5	0.4	6.7	8.2	7.4
ROAE	18.5	17.4	16.1	17.6	19.0
CAR	26.6	24.0	25.0	25.4	23.5
CIR	47.6	51.0	56.8	56.3	56.6
LDR	99.2	96.6	95.6	97.5	103.7
LLR	6.0	5.9	5.7	5.6	5.4
NPL %	2.6	2.8	2.9	2.9	2.9
NPL cov bps	226.7	211.8	199.0	192.1	187.8
Equity to asset ratio	16.2	14.6	15.3	15.9	15.5
CoC bps	274.8	360.0	315.3	289.1	338.2
LARs %	10.9	11.3	11.1	11.1	10.1
LAR cov % RHS	61.3	58.7	57.8	56.9	61.0
Restructured loans	7.0	6.7	6.4	6.5	6.1
Gross yield	11.1	10.7	10.9	10.9	10.8
Cost of funds	3.7	3.5	3.6	3.6	3.1
Spread	7.5	7.2	7.3	7.3	7.6
Risk-adj NIM	5.6	4.7	5.2	5.3	5.2
NIM	8.0	7.7	7.8	7.8	8.1
ROAA %	3.1	2.7	2.4	2.7	3.0
ROAE %	18.8	17.7	16.4	17.9	19.4

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI IJ) (Buy) - FY25 results inline

Fig. 1: BBRI FY25 y-y summary %

Fig. 2: BBRI quarterly results

Fig. 3: BBRI key ratios

Fig. 4: BBRI DuPont

Fig. 5: BBRI 12MMA CoC vs 12MMA WO %

Fig. 6: BBRI - LLR vs 12MMA WO %

Fig. 7: BBRI FY26-27F forecasts

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