Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) (Buy) - Strong results thanks to high fleet productivity

Strong results thanks to high fleet productivity

Blue Bird posted FY25 revenue of IDR5,705bn (+13% y-y), in line with our estimate and Bloomberg consensus. NPAT reached IDR636bn (+8.7% y-y), in line with our estimate and the consensus as well. Taxi — the anchor segment — drove growth with revenue rising +12% y-y to IDR3,993bn in FY25, supported by fleet utilization hitting a multi-year high of 82%. Non-taxi continued to scale up, with revenue growing +17% y-y to IDR1,712bn. EBITDA margin held stable at 23%, while NP margin compressed slightly to 11% (from 12% in FY24) as the company entered a heavier investment cycle. BIRD is currently trading at ~5.9x FY26F P/E with ROE of 10%. Dividend payout of ~50% implies a yield of approximately 8%.

Fleet productivity at a multi-year high

Average regular taxi operating fleet stood at 14,401 units in 4Q25, near pre-COVID levels, with utilization at ~82% and average revenue per vehicle/day rising to IDR763k. Total fleet surpassed 26,000 units (+7.7% y-y) with ~1,800 net additions during 2025. We view the improvement in fleet productivity as a key driver — allowing BIRD to grow topline without proportional fleet expansion.

Revenue at a new post-IPO high; EBIT quality warrants attention

FY25 revenue of IDR5,705bn surpassed the pre-COVID peak of IDR5,472bn set in FY15. Taxi GPM improved to 30% (from 29% in FY24), while non-taxi GPM compressed to 36% (vs. 39% in FY24), reflecting competitive pricing. FY25 EBIT rose +8.4% y-y to IDR687bn, but we highlight that IDR45bn of the IDR53bn absolute growth came from higher disposal gains (IDR137bn in FY25 vs. IDR92bn in FY24) — underlying EBIT growth was more modest. Finance expense rose +51% y-y to IDR103bn on higher debt (IDR2,264bn in 4Q25 vs. IDR1,360bn in 4Q24) to fund fleet renewal, with FY25 capex reaching IDR2,099bn.

Maintain Buy — undemanding valuation with attractive yield

Our TP of IDR2,250 is based on a target of 8x FY26F P/E. The stock is currently trading at ~5.9x FY26F P/E. Balance sheet remains healthy with net gearing at 0.1x and cash of IDR1,343bn. Downside risks include: intensifying ride-hailing competition, a slowdown in tourism and corporate travel demand, higher-than-expected financing costs from the ongoing investment cycle, and execution risk on non-taxi diversification.

Fig. 1: Blue Bird FY25 results

BIRD IJ (Rp bn)	3Q24	4Q24	3Q25	4Q25	q-q%	y-y%	FY24	FY25	y-y%	% Ve	% Cons
Revenue	1,336	1,376	1,450	1,586	9.4%	15%	5,040	5,705	13%	100%	100%
Taxi	895	980	1,019	1,116	9.5%	14%	3,578	3,993	12%
Non-taxi	441	396	431	470	9.1%	19%	1,462	1,712	17%
GP	441	450	441	487	11%	8.4%	1,629	1,814	11%	100%	92%
Taxi	246	304	294	318	8.1%	4.7%	1,042	1,184	14%
Non-taxi	189	141	142	166	17%	18%	570	614	7.6%
EBIT	186	177	151	174	15%	-2.0%	634	687	8.4%	100%	92%
Gain on disposal	28	26	34	38	12%	50%	92	137	49%
Finance expense	(17)	(19)	(28)	(30)	5.1%	53%	(69)	(103)	51%
EBITDA	317	320	320	357	12%	11%	1,183	1,339	13%	110%	99%
Pre-tax	223	196	189	202	7.1%	3.1%	756	825	9.1%	100%	96%
NP	173	149	147	153	4.1%	2.9%	585	636	8.7%	100%	96%

Margins %	3Q24	4Q24	3Q25	4Q25			FY24	FY25
GP	33%	33%	30%	31%			32%	32%
Taxi	28%	31%	29%	29%			29%	30%
Non-taxi	43%	36%	33%	35%			39%	36%
EBIT	14%	13%	10%	11%			13%	12%
EBITDA	24%	23%	22%	22%			23%	23%
NP	13%	11%	10%	10%			12%	11%
ROE %	9.2%	10%	10%	10%			8.2%	10%

Bal. sheet Rp bn	3Q24	4Q24	3Q25	4Q25
Cash	1,010	1,162	977	1,343
Debt	1,063	1,360	1,811	2,264
Net debt (cash)	52	198	834	921
Equity	5,729	5,881	6,063	6,208
Net gearing (cash)	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1		Source:	Company & Verdhana research

Note: Consensus numbers are from Bloomberg.
Source: Company data, Verdhana estimates

INVESTMENT RATINGS
A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general.

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Rating Table

Rating Remains	Buy
Target price Remains	IDR 2,250
Closing price 31 March 2026	IDR 1,645

Research Analysts

Jupriadi Tan (jupriadi.tan@verdhana.id)

David Tjahjadi (david.tjahjadi@verdhana.id)

Gerald Hugo(gerald.hugo@verdhana.id)

Tags: TRANSPORT OR LOGISTICS, Blue Bird, BIRD, BIRD JK, BIRD IJ, Jupriadi Tan, David Tjahjadi, Gerald Hugo

Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) (Buy) - Strong results thanks to high fleet productivity

Strong results thanks to high fleet productivity

Fig. 1: Blue Bird FY25 results

Fig. 2: Blue Bird revenue and NPAT — back above pre-COVID heights

Fig. 3: More rides, fuller fleets, fatter fares

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Blue Bird (BIRD IJ) (Buy) - Strong results thanks to high fleet productivity

Fig. 1: Blue Bird FY25 results

Fig. 2: Blue Bird revenue and NPAT — back above pre-COVID heights

Fig. 3: More rides, fuller fleets, fatter fares

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