Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) (Buy) - Don’t miss the bus

Don’t miss the bus

High-growth stock with undemanding valuation; maintain Buy

No brakes on growth

We estimate CMRY will record a solid EBIT CAGR 2025-28F of ~22%, leading to its continued outperformance vs peers. Our analysis concludes that there are three factors to support CMRY’s growth trajectory, such as: 1) General trade (GT) network expansion – CMRY currently covers ~200k points of sales (vs other big FMCG firms like Mayora [MYOR IJ, Buy], Indofood CBP [ICBP IJ, Buy], and Wings Group [unlisted] which operate >900k stores each), indicating more room for growth. Although dairy products are already being sold in all GT channels, its fastest-growing brand, Kanzler, is still distributed in 15-20K stores only given production capacity constraints, showing significant room for upside especially once the new additional production commences in 2027F. 2) Miss Cimory as an effective direct-to-consumer channel that currently generates annual sales of IDR2.0-2.5tn via ~10k agents; and we still see upside in sales if we compare it to Yakult Lady [under Yakult Indonesia (unlisted)] with ~11k agents that generate annual sales of IDR4.0-4.5tn or 53% of total Yakult Indonesia sales, while Miss Cimory also has more SKUs than Yakult Lady. Moreover, agents are also a vital marketing tool in significant word-of-mouth effects, giving CMRY more advantage than its peers. 3) Higher government spending on grassroots, especially through the free meal program, is driving demand for UHT milk, which we believe is leading to a spillover effect on CMRY’s products. In addition, we also expect overall out-of-home consumption to improve, reflected in CMRY's strong yogurt sales, as well as double-digit sales growth in MT.

Compelling entry point

With significant uncertainty risk in Indonesia, we see the FMCG sector as one of the better placed, given its lower regulatory risks. CMRY is one of our top picks on its superior growth (one of the fastest-growing listed FMCG firms in ASEAN) with an undemanding valuation (currently trades at 15.7x FY26F P/E with ~5% div. yield). We maintain our Buy call for CMRY with a TP of IDR9,250, using an unchanged target P/E of 30x FY26F. We adjust our NPAT by +1%/+2% for FY26F/27F as we include better sales volume trend, and introduce FY28F into our forecasts. While the risk associated with USD/IDR-related costs still linger, we believe CMRY still has room to increase its ASP and remain competitive, thanks to its wider price gap with the market leader. In addition, the company has room to reduce its A&P expenses, buffering a potentially lower GPM, in our view.

Year-end 31 Dec	FY25		FY26F		FY27F		FY28F
Currency (IDR)	Actual	Old	New	Old	New	Old	New
Revenue (bn)	10,724	12,308	12,694	14,316	15,051	0	17,909
Reported net profit (bn)	2,033	2,421	2,444	2,828	2,895	0	3,577
Normalised net profit (bn)	2,033	2,421	2,444	2,828	2,895	0	3,577
FD normalised EPS	256.20	305.14	308.07	356.43	364.90		450.75
FD norm. EPS growth (%)	33.8	14.4	20.2	16.8	18.4		23.5
FD normalised P/E (x)	18.9	–	15.7	–	13.2	–	10.7
EV/EBITDA (x)	15.0	–	12.3	–	10.1	–	8.1
Price/book (x)	5.6	–	5.3	–	4.9	–	4.5
Dividend yield (%)	3.7	–	5.1	–	6.0	–	7.5
ROE (%)	30.0	31.7	34.8	34.7	38.3		43.6
Net debt/equity (%)	net cash	net cash	net cash	net cash	net cash		net cash

Source: Company data, Verdhana estimates

Key data on Cisarua Mountain Dairy

Income statement (IDRbn)
Year-end 31 Dec	FY24	FY25	FY26F	FY27F	FY28F
Revenue	9,026	10,724	12,694	15,051	17,909
Cost of goods sold	-4,943	-5,870	-7,232	-8,461	-9,855
Gross profit	4,083	4,854	5,462	6,590	8,054
SG&A	-2,410	-2,566	-2,697	-3,243	-3,876
Employee share expense	0	0	0	0	0
Operating profit	1,672	2,288	2,766	3,348	4,177
EBITDA	1,853	2,491	3,038	3,672	4,554
Depreciation	-181	-203	-273	-324	-377
Amortisation	0	0	0	0	0
EBIT	1,672	2,288	2,766	3,348	4,177
Net interest expense	224	259	310	296	325
Associates & JCEs	6	7	7	7	8
Other income	2	7	-4	-5	-5
Earnings before tax	1,905	2,560	3,079	3,647	4,505
Income tax	-385	-528	-634	-751	-928
Net profit after tax	1,519	2,033	2,445	2,896	3,577
Minority interests	0	0	0	0	0
Other items	0	0	0	0	0
Preferred dividends	0	0	0	0	0
Normalised NPAT	1,519	2,033	2,444	2,895	3,577
Extraordinary items	0	0	0	0	0
Reported NPAT	1,519	2,033	2,444	2,895	3,577
Dividends	-1,190	-1,423	-1,956	-2,316	-2,861
Transfer to reserves	329	610	489	579	715
Valuations and ratios
Reported P/E (x)	25.2	18.9	15.7	13.2	10.7
Normalised P/E (x)	25.2	18.9	15.7	13.2	10.7
FD normalised P/E (x)	25.2	18.9	15.7	13.2	10.7
Dividend yield (%)	3.1	3.7	5.1	6.0	7.5
Price/cashflow (x)	31.7	14.8	15.6	12.6	10.2
Price/book (x)	5.7	5.6	5.3	4.9	4.5
EV/EBITDA (x)	19.9	15.0	12.3	10.1	8.1
EV/EBIT (x)	22.1	16.3	13.5	11.1	8.8
Gross margin (%)	45.2	45.3	43.0	43.8	45.0
EBITDA margin (%)	20.5	23.2	23.9	24.4	25.4
EBIT margin (%)	18.5	21.3	21.8	22.2	23.3
Net margin (%)	16.8	19.0	19.3	19.2	20.0
Effective tax rate (%)	20.2	20.6	20.6	20.6	20.6
Dividend payout (%)	78.3	70.0	80.0	80.0	80.0
ROE (%)	23.9	30.0	34.8	38.3	43.6
ROA (pretax %)	28.6	31.2	33.7	36.9	42.1
Growth (%)
Revenue	16.1	18.8	18.4	18.6	19.0
EBITDA	18.4	34.4	22.0	20.8	24.0
Normalised EPS	22.4	33.8	20.2	18.4	23.5
Normalised FDEPS	22.4	33.8	20.2	18.4	23.5
Source: Company data, Verdhana estimates

Cashflow statement (IDRbn)
Year-end 31 Dec	FY24	FY25	FY26F	FY27F	FY28F
EBITDA	1,853	2,491	3,038	3,672	4,554
Change in working capital	-491	-66	-247	-160	-176
Other operating cashflow	-153	172	-336	-470	-622
Cashflow from operations	1,210	2,597	2,455	3,042	3,757
Capital expenditure	-372	-560	-600	-600	-600
Free cashflow	838	2,036	1,855	2,442	3,157
Reduction in investments	0	0	0	0	0
Net acquisitions	0	0	0	0	0
Dec in other LT assets	0	0	0	0	0
Inc in other LT liabilities	0	0	0	0	0
Adjustments	-1,098	-395	-3	-3	-4
CF after investing acts	-261	1,642	1,852	2,439	3,153
Cash dividends	-714	-1,190	-1,423	-1,956	-2,316
Equity issue	-709	-2,000	-1,956	-2,316	-2,861
Debt issue	0	0	0	0	0
Convertible debt issue	0	0	0	0	0
Others	766	1,216	1,452	1,991	2,359
CF from financial acts	-657	-1,974	-1,926	-2,281	-2,819
Net cashflow	-917	-332	-75	158	334
Beginning cash	2,197	1,280	948	873	1,031
Ending cash	1,280	948	873	1,031	1,365
Ending net debt	-1,280	-948	-873	-1,031	-1,365
Balance sheet (IDRbn)
As at 31 Dec	FY24	FY25	FY26F	FY27F	FY28F
Cash & equivalents	1,280	948	873	1,031	1,365
Marketable securities	1,181	753	753	753	753
Accounts receivable	901	1,041	1,269	1,505	1,791
Inventories	932	1,231	1,517	1,774	2,067
Other current assets	100	220	260	309	367
Total current assets	4,395	4,192	4,673	5,372	6,343
LT investments	0	0	0	0	0
Fixed assets	1,837	2,180	2,507	2,783	3,006
Goodwill	0	0	0	0	0
Other intangible assets	0	0	0	0	0
Other LT assets	1,960	2,369	2,372	2,376	2,379
Total assets	8,192	8,741	9,552	10,531	11,729
Short-term debt	0	0	0	0	0
Accounts payable	656	989	1,205	1,410	1,643
Other current liabilities	734	893	984	1,161	1,390
Total current liabilities	1,390	1,882	2,189	2,572	3,032
Long-term debt	0	0	0	0	0
Convertible debt	0	0	0	0	0
Other LT liabilities	49	74	89	107	128
Total liabilities	1,439	1,956	2,278	2,678	3,161
Minority interest	0	0	0	0	0
Preferred stock	0	0	0	0	0
Common stock	3,807	3,807	3,807	3,807	3,807
Retained earnings	2,945	2,978	3,467	4,046	4,761
Proposed dividends	0	0	0	0	0
Other equity and reserves	0	0	0	0	0
Total shareholders' equity	6,752	6,785	7,273	7,853	8,568
Total equity & liabilities	8,192	8,741	9,552	10,531	11,729
Liquidity (x)
Current ratio	3.16	2.23	2.13	2.09	2.09
Interest cover	–	–	–	–	–
Leverage
Net debt/EBITDA (x)	net cash	net cash	net cash	net cash	net cash
Net debt/equity (%)	net cash	net cash	net cash	net cash	net cash
Per share
Reported EPS (IDR)	191.48	256.20	308.07	364.90	450.75
Norm EPS (IDR)	191.48	256.20	308.07	364.90	450.75
FD norm EPS (IDR)	191.48	256.20	308.07	364.90	450.75
BVPS (IDR)	850.94	855.05	916.67	989.65	1,079.80
DPS (IDR)	150.00	179.34	246.46	291.92	360.60
Activity (days)
Days receivable	36.0	33.0	33.2	33.6	33.7
Days inventory	66.8	67.3	69.3	71.0	71.3
Days payable	44.7	51.1	55.4	56.4	56.7
Cash cycle	58.1	49.2	47.2	48.2	48.3
Source: Company data, Verdhana estimates

Company profilePT Cisarua Mountain Dairy (Cimory), established in 1993, produces premium dairy and premium consumer foods. The company has positioned its novel products in the premium market by focusing on product quality and unique offerings. Cimory Squeeze (pouch yogurt), Kanzler Singles (ready-to-eat sausage), and UHT milk with unique flavors are just three examples. The company went IPO in 2021. Cimory currently has 6 factories, 1 distribution center, distribution branches, and 80 distributors which distribute the company’s product to 33,000 MT channels, 50,000 GT channels, and 2,700 MCMs. The current controlling shareholder is the Sutantio family.

Valuation MethodologyWe derive our TP of IDR9,250 using FY26F P/E target of 30x (+1.6std of its five-year mean). The benchmark index for this stock is JCI.

Risks that may impede the achievement of the target priceDownside risk would be on unfavorable USD/IDR-related costs.

ESGCimory is strongly committed to its ESG efforts to better the lives of Indonesian citizens, and at the same time achieve long-term sustainability and success. In terms of environment and energy, Cimory has put an effort in order to reduce the maximize the usage of energy, water, and waste. Cimory also provide an opportunity for local dairy farmers and housewives. They provide training to their local dairy farmers in order to further enhance the productivity and quality of milk, thus giving Cimory the best quality of milk. Cimory also provides economic benefit opportunities for housewives through their Miss Cimory program.

INVESTMENT RATINGS
A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general.

GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared by PT Verdhana Sekuritas Indonesia (“PTVSI”) a securities company registered in Indonesia, supervised by Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK) and a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).

This report is intended for client of PTVSI only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of PTVSI.

The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but PTVSI do not make any representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. The information in this report is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or condensed and it may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report. Any information, valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or targets herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report is published, and there is no assurance that future results or events will be consistent.

This report is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or financial products. PTVSI and its associates, its directors, and/or its employees may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in this report or it may or will engage in any securities transaction or other capital market services for the company (companies) mentioned herein.

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report and certifies that the views about the companies including their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

RESTRICTIONS ON DISTRIBUTION

By accepting this report, the recipient hereof represents and warrants that you are entitled to receive such report in accordance with the restrictions and agrees to be bound by the limitations contained herein. Neither this report nor any copy hereof may be distributed except in compliance with applicable Indonesian capital market laws and regulations.

Rating Table

Rating Remains	Buy
Target price Increased from IDR 9,150	IDR 9,250
Closing price 29 May 2026	IDR 4,830
Implied upside	+91.5%
Market Cap (USD mn)	2,145.2
ADT (USD mn)	1.2

Relative performance chart

Source: LSEG, Verdhana

M cap (USDmn)	2,145.2
Free float (%)	19.2
3-mth ADT (USDmn)	1.2

(%)	1M	3M	12M
Absolute (IDR)	4.5	-6.7	-1.0
Absolute (USD)	1.1	-12.4	-9.8
Rel to Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index	18.3	18.9	13.6

Research Analysts

Sandy Ham (sandy.ham@verdhana.id)

Samuel Christian (samuel.christian@verdhana.id)

Jody Wijaya (jody.wijaya@verdhana.id)

Nayla Yasmin (nayla.yasmin@verdhana.id)

Tags: GENERAL CONSUMER, Cisarua Mountain Dairy, CMRY, CMRY JK, CMRY IJ, Sandy Ham, Samuel Christian, Jody Wijaya, Nayla Yasmin

Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) (Buy) - Don’t miss the bus

Don’t miss the bus

Key data on Cisarua Mountain Dairy

Fig. 1: CMRY vs global FMCG firms’ CAGR 2025-2028F comparison

Fig. 2: CMRY – NPAT trend

Fig. 3: CMRY – ROE trend

Fig. 4: CMRY - Forward P/E band

Fig. 5: CMRY – Ownership structure

Rating Table

Relative performance chart

Research Analysts

yudi Administrator

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Mayora Indah MYOR IJ -Buy- Strong 3Q domestic and export sales momentum

Unilever Indonesia UNVR IJ -Reduce- Market share deterioration a concern

Indonesia Consumer - Regions with faster consumption growth in focus

Sumber Alfaria Trijaya AMRT IJ -Buy- A consistent FMCG outperformer

Indonesia Consumer - The rise of food service business

Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ) (Buy) - Don’t miss the bus

Fig. 1: CMRY vs global FMCG firms’ CAGR 2025-2028F comparison

Fig. 2: CMRY – NPAT trend

Fig. 3: CMRY – ROE trend

Fig. 4: CMRY - Forward P/E band

Fig. 5: CMRY – Ownership structure

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