Indonesia Auto - Less than meets the eye

Less than meets the eye

June 2026 four-wheeler (4W) sales data points to an extended industry recovery, but the quality of the recovery appears narrow. 4W wholesales reached 78k units in June (+33% y-y) and retail sales rose to 75k units (+20% y-y), taking 6M26 wholesales to 437k (+16% y-y) and retail sales to 434k (+10% y-y). Yet, roughly 47% of the 60k y-y increase in 1H26 wholesales came from just two commercial models – the Suzuki Carry and the Daihatsu Gran Max – which together recorded an 87% y-y jump in sales to 61k units. Excluding them, the rest of the market grew only 9.1% y-y – still 18% below 6M23 levels. We read the recovery as still leaning on fleet and commercial demand rather than a broad-based lift in passenger-car purchasing power, with Astra continuing to cede share to Chinese entrants.

Two commercial models drove close to half of the gain

The composition matters more than the headline. At 437k, 6M26 wholesales were the highest 1H print since 6M23 and ran ahead of retail sales. But the Suzuki (7269 JP, NR) Carry and Daihatsu (6023 JP, Not rated) Gran Max – both commercial vehicles – accounted for close to half of the entire y-y volume lift, and their combined 61k units (from 32k a year earlier) masked the industry’s underlying health. Excluding them, 1H wholesales of 376k were up a relatively modest 9.1% y-y and remained ~18% below the 6M23 level of 459k.

Astra’s market share kept slipping – to 51% in 6M26

Astra’s (ASII IJ, Buy) market share kept slipping. Its wholesale market share fell to 51% in 6M26 (from 54% in 6M25) and to 52% in June, while retail share eased to 50% (vs 53% last year). The pressure was broad-based; Toyota (7203 JP, Not rated) wholesales rose 8.1% y-y in 1H26, yet its share still slipped to 31% (from 33%), Daihatsu (8058 JP, Not rated) grew 14% y-y with its share remaining flat at 17%, and Isuzu (7202 JP, Not rated) (+23% y-y) was the group’s lone bright spot.

BYD rebounds, Jaecoo and Geely scale up

The ex-Astra segment grew 22% y-y to 213k units, lifting its wholesale share to 49% (from 46%), though the performance of China brands was far from uniform. BYD (1211 HK, Buy) rebounded sharply – June wholesales of 5.3k (+153% y-y) took 6M26 to 23k (+65% y-y) while newer entrants scaled fast, with Jaecoo (unlisted) going from a standing start to 17k units (4.0% wholesale share) and Geely (175 HK, Not rated) reaching 8.4k. On the other hand, Chery (9973 HK, Not rated) witnessed a sharp decline of 39% y-y, Denza (1960557D CH, Not rated) fell 51%, and Wuling (0305 HK, Not rated) was broadly flat. Honda (7269 JP, Not rated) sales continued to be weak, with 1H wholesales down 37% y-y.

2W broadly flat, but exports remained robust

The two-wheeler (2W) market stayed broadly flat. Domestic 2W sales reached 515k in June (+1.1% y-y), taking 6M26 domestic volumes to 3,130k (+0.8% y-y). Exports remained the stand-out performer, up 18% y-y to 317k in 1H26 – now close to 9% of total 2W volume – lifting the overall 2W sales to 3,446k (+2.2% y-y). We see the export strength as a structural positive for domestic 2W assemblers and their component suppliers, even as soft purchasing power keeps domestic growth capped.

Fig. 1: 4W wholesales – Wholesales rose 16%, but China brands outperformed the others

4W wholesales (k)	May-25	Jun-25	May-26	Jun-26	mom%	yoy%	6M25	6M26	yoy%
Wholesales	61	58	69	78	12%	33%	377	437	16%
Astra	35	29	39	40	3.9%	37%	202	224	11%
Toyota	21	18	25	23	-8.2%	28%	124	134	8.1%
Daihatsu	11	9	11	14	27%	51%	64	74	14%
Isuzu	1.9	1.8	2.6	3.1	19%	68%	11	14	23%
Others	0.6	0.5	0.4	0.4	20%	-3.3%	2.5	2.2	-11%
Ex-Astra	26	29	30	37	22%	28%	175	213	22%
Mitsubishi	6.7	7.3	6.5	8.2	26%	12%	43	50	18%
Honda	3.2	4.2	2.4	2.4	1.0%	-43%	33	21	-37%
Suzuki	3.9	4.9	6.1	6.1	-0.8%	23%	27	36	34%
Wuling	1.6	0.7	1.4	1.7	23%	154%	8.3	8.2	-0.7%
Hyundai	1.7	1.0	1.5	1.2	-19%	26%	11	9.0	-19%
Chery	2.0	2.3	1.0	1.0	0.8%	-58%	10	6.3	-39%
BYD	2.8	2.1	0.9	5.3	na.	153%	14	23	65%
Denza	0.6	1.8	0.2	0.5	121%	-74%	5.7	2.8	-51%
Jaecoo	-	0.1	3.0	3.1	1.7%	na.	0.1	17	na.
GAC	0.3	0.9	0.4	0.3	-12%	-62%	2.7	3.7	38%
Geely	0.2	0.2	1.7	2.0	18%	na.	0.9	8.4	na.
Others	3.2	3.5	5.3	5.5	3.5%	57%	19.5	27	38%

Domestic mkt share %	May-25	Jun-25	May-26	Jun-26			6M25	6M26
Astra	57%	50%	56%	52%			54%	51%
Toyota	35%	31%	36%	29%			33%	31%
Daihatsu	18%	16%	16%	18%			17%	17%
Isuzu	3.1%	3.1%	3.7%	4.0%			3.0%	3.2%
Others	1.0%	0.8%	0.5%	0.6%			0.7%	0.5%
Ex-Astra	43%	50%	44%	48%			46%	49%
Mitsubishi	11%	13%	9.4%	11%			11%	11%
Honda	5.2%	7.2%	3.4%	3.1%			8.7%	4.7%
Suzuki	6.4%	8.5%	8.8%	7.8%			7.2%	8.3%
Wuling	2.6%	1.1%	2.0%	2.2%			2.2%	1.9%
Hyundai	2.7%	1.7%	2.2%	1.6%			3.0%	2.1%
Chery	3.3%	3.9%	1.4%	1.2%			2.7%	1.4%
BYD	4.6%	3.6%	1.3%	6.8%			3.7%	5.3%
Denza	1.0%	3.0%	0.3%	0.6%			1.5%	0.6%
Jaecoo	0.0%	0.2%	4.3%	3.9%			0.0%	4.0%
GAC	0.5%	1.5%	0.5%	0.4%			0.7%	0.9%
Geely	0.4%	0.4%	2.5%	2.6%			0.2%	1.9%
Others	5.3%	6.0%	7.6%	7.0%			5.2%	6.1%

Source: Gaikindo, Verdhana research

Fig. 2: 4W retail sales – Robust sales performance of ex-Astra brands

4W retail sales (RS, k)	May-25	Jun-25	May-26	Jun-26	mom%	yoy%	6M25	6M26	yoy%
Retail sales	62	62	72	75	3.9%	20%	393	434	10%
Astra	32	32	36	37	2.2%	15%	206	217	5.0%
Toyota + Lexus	20	20	21	21	-1.2%	6.5%	127	130	2.4%
Daihatsu	10	10	13	13	1.5%	27%	67	72	8.2%
Isuzu	2.0	2.2	2.2	3.1	40%	42%	11	13	19%
Others	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.2	-6.1%	0.4%	1.6	1.2	-26%
Ex-Astra	29	30	35	37	5.7%	24%	186	217	17%
Mitsubishi	7.4	7.6	8.2	9.0	9.6%	18%	44	52	19%
Honda	4.7	5.2	3.6	3.7	1.1%	-30%	39	24	-39%
Suzuki	4.5	4.6	5.9	5.7	-3.9%	24%	28	37	32%
Wuling	1.5	1.1	1.6	1.5	-10%	33%	9.3	8.3	-11%
Hyundai	1.7	1.7	1.5	1.3	-14%	-27%	12	9.0	-22%
Chery	2.1	2.2	1.0	1.1	9.7%	-51%	9.8	6.5	-34%
BYD	2.6	2.2	2.9	3.8	30%	73%	14	23	69%
Denza	0.8	1.1	0.4	0.5	12%	-59%	5.1	2.2	-58%
Jaecoo	-	-	3.0	3.1	1.7%	na.	-	17	na.
GAC	0.5	0.7	0.5	0.3	-36%	-61%	2.7	3.3	22%
Geely	0.2	0.2	2.0	2.0	1.6%	na.	0.8	8.2	na.
Others	3.1	3.3	4.7	5.6	18%	66%	22	27	20%

Retail mkt share %	May-25	Jun-25	May-26	Jun-26			6M25	6M26
Astra	53%	52%	51%	50%			53%	50%
Toyota	33%	32%	30%	28%			32%	30%
Daihatsu	16%	16%	17%	17%			17%	17%
Isuzu	3.3%	3.5%	3.1%	4.2%			2.9%	3.1%
Others	0.5%	0.4%	0.3%	0.3%			0.4%	0.3%
Ex-Astra	47%	48%	49%	50%			47%	50%
Mitsubishi	12%	12.2%	11%	12%			11%	12%
Honda	7.7%	8.4%	5.1%	4.9%			10%	5.5%
Suzuki	7.3%	7.3%	8.3%	7.6%			7.1%	8.4%
Wuling	2.4%	1.8%	2.3%	2.0%			2.4%	1.9%
Hyundai	2.7%	2.8%	2.0%	1.7%			2.9%	2.1%
Chery	3.4%	3.5%	1.4%	1.4%			2.5%	1.5%
BYD	4.3%	3.5%	4.0%	5.0%			3.5%	5.3%
Denza	1.3%	1.8%	0.6%	0.6%			1.3%	0.5%
Jaecoo	0.0%	0.0%	4.2%	4.1%			0.0%	3.9%
GAC	0.8%	1.2%	0.6%	0.4%			0.7%	0.8%
Geely	0.4%	0.4%	2.8%	2.7%			0.2%	1.9%
Others	5.0%	5%	6.6%	7.5%			5.7%	6.2%

Source: Gaikindo, Verdhana research

Fig. 3: 2W sales – quiet at home, loud abroad

2W market (k units)	May-25	Jun-25	May-26	Jun-26	mom%	yoy%	6M25	6M26	yoy%
Domestic	505	509	479	515	7.5%	1.1%	3,105	3,130	0.8%
Export	50	46	55	50	-8.6%	8.6%	269	317	18%
Total	555	555	534	565	5.8%	1.8%	3,373	3,446	2.2%

Source: AISI, Verdhana research

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Research Analysts

Jupriadi Tan (jupriadi.tan@verdhana.id)

David Tjahjadi (david.tjahjadi@verdhana.id)

Gerald Hugo (gerald.hugo@verdhana.id)

Tags: AUTOS AND AUTO PARTS, Indonesia Auto, Jupriadi Tan, David Tjahjadi, Gerald Hugo

Indonesia Auto - Less than meets the eye

Less than meets the eye

Fig. 1: 4W wholesales – Wholesales rose 16%, but China brands outperformed the others

Fig. 2: 4W retail sales – Robust sales performance of ex-Astra brands

Fig. 3: 2W sales – quiet at home, loud abroad

Fig. 4: Monthly sales and y-y growth — the low-base bounce

Fig. 5: It takes two: Carry and Gran Max do the heavy lifting

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Indonesia Auto - Less than meets the eye

Fig. 1: 4W wholesales – Wholesales rose 16%, but China brands outperformed the others

Fig. 2: 4W retail sales – Robust sales performance of ex-Astra brands

Fig. 3: 2W sales – quiet at home, loud abroad

Fig. 4: Monthly sales and y-y growth — the low-base bounce

Fig. 5: It takes two: Carry and Gran Max do the heavy lifting

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