Indonesia Autos - Off the low base – sales up 10% yoy

Off the low base – sales up 10% yoy

February 2026 4W data confirmed a firm industry recovery, with retail sales reaching 78k units (+12% yoy, +17% mom) and wholesale at 81k units (+12% yoy, +22% mom). On a 2-month basis, retail stood at 145k (+8.3% yoy) and wholesale at 148k (+10% yoy) – off last year’s low sales base.

Market share rebalancing

Astra's (ASII IJ, Buy) retail share fell to 48% in February 2026, down from 53% in January and well below the 54% average seen in 2M25, bringing 2M26 retail share to 50%. On the wholesale side, ASII's share likewise compressed to 47% in February (2M26: 50% vs. 54% in 2M25). The decline is broad-based across the portfolio: Toyota/Lexus retail slipped 8.3% yoy in 2M26, Daihatsu was down 1.1% yoy, while Honda contracted sharply at -46% yoy on a 2M26 basis. The three-month moving average of ASII's combined market share has now fallen to approximately 48%, the lowest level since at least early-2022, and down roughly 11 percentage points from its mid-2024 peak of ~59%.

Chinese brands driving structural share gains

The ex-Astra segment captured 52% retail share in February and 50% on a 2M26 basis, a near-mirror inversion from the 46%/54% split a year ago. BYD (1211 HK, Buy) stands out as the most significant beneficiary, with February retail reaching 3.6k units — up 150% yoy — and 2M26 retail share expanding to 4.2% from 1.9% in 2M25. Wholesale share tells a similar story at 6% in February (vs. 1.9% a year ago). Beyond BYD, the momentum among newer Chinese entrants is broadening: GAC (2238 HK, Not rated) retail surged 330% yoy, Geely (175 HK, Buy) and Jaecoo (unlisted) are both registering meaningful volumes off a near-zero base, and Suzuki (7269 JP, Neutral) (+22% yoy) continues its re-acceleration. Wuling (305 HK, Not rated) and Chery (unlisted) remain softer on a yoy basis, though both are holding their footholds. The common thread is that Chinese brands are winning primarily in segments where Astra's legacy brands — particularly Honda and Wuling — had previously been dominant.

Autos market dependent on asset quality and prices

We view a meaningful recovery in 4W sales volume as contingent on two conditions that are currently not in place. First, consumer financing quality needs to improve — elevated non-performing loans (NPL) across the auto financing segment continue to constrain credit extension, limiting the pool of eligible buyers and dampening the multiplier effect of any demand recovery. Until asset quality stabilises and lenders regain comfort in underwriting, the volume upside will remain capped. Second, the price upside from car brands is limited. Intensifying competition from Chinese entrants — who continue to use aggressive pricing as a market entry lever — is suppressing the ability of incumbents to push through meaningful price increases.

Fig. 2: 4W wholesales— up 10% yoy driven by non-Astra (21% yoy) brands. Astra brands are +0.3% yoy only

4W wholesales (k)	Jan-25	Feb-25	Jan-26	Feb-26	mom%	yoy%	2M25	2M26	yoy%
Wholesales	62	72	66	81	22%	12%	134	148	10%
Astra	35	39	35	38	9%	-1%	73	73	0.3%
Toyota	22	24	20	23	12%	-8%	46	43	-8.3%
Daihatsu	10	12	13	13	8%	12%	22	26	18%
Isuzu	2.2	1.9	2.2	1.9	-10%	2%	4.1	4.1	0.2%
Others	0.3	0.3	0.2	0.4	62%	32%	0.5	0.6	12%
Ex-Astra	27	34	31	43	36%	27%	61	74	21%
Mitsubishi	7.1	8.8	9.2	9.5	3%	8%	16	19	18%
Honda	7.3	8.8	4.0	5.4	34%	-39%	16	9.4	-41%
Suzuki	5.0	4.8	2.8	9.7	247%	103%	10	12	28%
Wuling	1.0	1.9	1.1	1.5	39%	-23%	2.9	2.6	-13%
Hyundai	2.3	2.2	1.4	1.7	22%	-22%	4.5	3.2	-30%
Chery	1.1	1.5	1.1	1.2	8%	-22%	2.6	2.2	-14%
BYD	1.1	1.4	4.9	4.7	-5%	233%	2.5	10	279%
Denza	0.0	0.9	0.4	0.3	-31%	-70%	0.9	0.7	-29%
Jaecoo	-	-	2.0	3.0	48%	na.	-	5.0	na.
GAC	0.1	0.2	0.6	0.9	48%	479%	0.2	1.5	538%
Geely	-	0.1	0.2	0.2	0%	239%	0.1	0.4	579%
Others	2.4	3.3	4	5	30%	44%	5.8	8.5	48%

Domestic mkt share %	Jan-25	Feb-25	Jan-26	Feb-26			2M25	2M26
Astra	56%	53%	53%	47%			54%	50%
Toyota	36%	34%	30%	28%			35%	29%
Daihatsu	16%	17%	19%	17%			16%	18%
Isuzu	3.6%	2.6%	3.3%	2.4%			3.1%	2.8%
Others	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%	0.5%			0.4%	0.4%
Ex-Astra	44%	47%	47%	53%			46%	50%
Mitsubishi	12%	12%	14%	12%			12%	13%
Honda	12%	12%	6.0%	6.6%			12%	6.4%
Suzuki	8.0%	6.6%	4.2%	11.9%			7.2%	8.4%
Wuling	1.6%	2.7%	1.6%	1.8%			2.2%	1.7%
Hyundai	3.7%	3.1%	2.1%	2.1%			3.4%	2.1%
Chery	1.8%	2.0%	1.6%	1.4%			1.9%	1.5%
BYD	1.8%	1.9%	7%	6%			1.9%	6.5%
Denza	0.0%	1.3%	0.6%	0.3%			0.7%	0.4%
Jaecoo	0.0%	0.0%	3.0%	3.7%			0.0%	3.4%
GAC	0.1%	0.2%	0.9%	1.1%			0.2%	1.0%
Geely	0.0%	0.1%	0.3%	0.3%			0.0%	0.3%
Others	3.9%	4.6%	5.6%	6.0%			4.3%	5.8%

Source: Gaikindo, Verdhana research

Fig. 3: Retail sales— Up +8% yoy driven also by non-Astra sales (+16% yoy)

4W retail sales (RS, k)	Jan-25	Feb-25	Jan-26	Feb-26	mom%	yoy%	2M25	2M26	yoy%
Retail sales	64	70	67	78	17%	12%	134	145	8.3%
Astra	35	37	35	37	-13%	2.4%	72	73	1.5%
Toyota + Lexus	22	22	22	23	-13%	2.4%	44	45	2.5%
Daihatsu	11	13	11	12	-11%	-0.9%	24	24	-1.1%
Isuzu	1.6	2.1	2.1	2.0	-30%	27%	4	4	8.7%
Others	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.2	-18%	-16%	0.4	0.3	-20%
Ex-Astra	29	33	31	41	-41%	6.9%	62	72	16%
Mitsubishi	6.5	8.3	9	10	-19%	34%	15	18	24%
Honda	8.8	7.8	4.2	4.7	-40%	-52%	17	9	-46%
Suzuki	4.5	5.1	5.5	9.0	-34%	22%	10	15	52%
Wuling	1.7	2.0	1.0	1.5	-66%	-37%	4	3	-31%
Hyundai	2.0	2.2	1.4	1.7	17%	-30%	4	3	-24%
Chery	1.2	1.3	1.2	1.2	-16%	-1%	2.5	2	-6.6%
BYD	1.0	1.5	2.5	3.6	-50%	150%	2	6	145%
Denza	-	0.5	0.2	0.3	-21%	na.	0.52	0.5	4.6%
Jaecoo	-	-	2.0	3.0	81%	na.	-	5.1	na.
GAC	0.2	0.1	0.7	0.7	-55%	330%	0.3	1.4	388%
Geely	-	-	0.6	1.1	88%	na.	-	1.7	na.
Others	3.6	4.0	3.4	4.3	-74%	-7%	8	8	1%

Retail mkt share %	Jan-25	Feb-25	Jan-26	Feb-26			2M25	2M26
Astra	54%	53%	53%	48%			54%	50%
Toyota	34%	32%	33%	29%			33%	31%
Daihatsu	18%	18%	17%	16%			18%	16%
Isuzu	2.6%	3.1%	3.1%	2.6%			2.8%	2.8%
Others	0.3%	0.4%	0.2%	0.3%			0.3%	0.2%
Ex-Astra	46%	47%	47%	52%			46%	50%
Mitsubishi	10%	12%	13%	12%			11%	13%
Honda	14%	11%	6.3%	6.0%			12%	6.1%
Suzuki	7.1%	7.2%	8.2%	11.6%			7.2%	10.0%
Wuling	2.6%	2.9%	1.6%	1.9%			2.8%	1.8%
Hyundai	3.1%	3.1%	2.1%	2.2%			3.1%	2.2%
Chery	1.9%	1.9%	1.8%	1.5%			1.9%	1.6%
BYD	1.6%	2.1%	4%	5%			1.9%	4.2%
Denza	0.0%	0.7%	0.3%	0.4%			0.4%	0.4%
Jaecoo	0.0%	0.0%	3.0%	3.9%			0.0%	3.5%
GAC	0.2%	0.2%	1.0%	0.9%			0.2%	1.0%
Geely	0.0%	0.0%	0.9%	1.4%			0.0%	1.2%
Others	5.7%	5.7%	5.1%	5.5%			5.7%	5.3%

Source: Gaikindo, Verdhana research

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Research Analysts

Jupriadi Tan (jupriadi.tan@verdhana.id)

David Tjahjadi (david.tjahjadi@verdhana.id)

Tags: AUTOS AND AUTO PARTS, Indonesia Autos, Jupriadi Tan, David Tjahjadi

Indonesia Autos - Off the low base – sales up 10% yoy

Off the low base – sales up 10% yoy

Fig. 1: High correlation, sales and NPL

Fig. 2: 4W wholesales— up 10% yoy driven by non-Astra (21% yoy) brands. Astra brands are +0.3% yoy only

Fig. 3: Retail sales— Up +8% yoy driven also by non-Astra sales (+16% yoy)

Fig. 4: Monthly sales and yoy growth

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Indonesia Autos - Off the low base – sales up 10% yoy

Fig. 1: High correlation, sales and NPL

Fig. 2: 4W wholesales— up 10% yoy driven by non-Astra (21% yoy) brands. Astra brands are +0.3% yoy only

Fig. 3: Retail sales— Up +8% yoy driven also by non-Astra sales (+16% yoy)

Fig. 4: Monthly sales and yoy growth

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