Trimegah Bangun Persada NCKL IJ- Buy - 2Q24 results above our projections
Overall results were above our projections, with 2Q24 profit of IDR1.8tn (+80% q-q), bringing 1H24 profit to
Key changes and earnings impact
Key takeaways: double rate for tin royalty; impact on gold/silver companies; limited impact on nickel
Stocks for action: Prefer upstream nickel ore names
| 7. Cluster Adjustment for Cobalt Commodity as By-Product in Nickel Matte | |||
| PP 19/2025 | Proposal | ||
| HMA Condition | Tariff | HMA Condition | Tariff |
| HMA < USD18,000 | 3.50% | (a) Nickel: HMA < USD18,000 | 3.50% |
| USD18,000 ≤ HMA < USD21,000 | 4.00% | USD18,000 ≤ HMA < USD21,000 | 4.00% |
| USD21,000 ≤ HMA < USD24,000 | 4.50% | USD21,000 ≤ HMA < USD24,000 | 4.50% |
| USD24,000 ≤ HMA < USD31,000 | 5.00% | USD24,000 ≤ HMA < USD31,000 | 5.00% |
| HMA ≥ USD31,000 | 5.50% | HMA ≥ USD31,000 | 5.50% |
| Cobalt as by-product in Nickel Matte | 2.0% | (b) Cobalt (as by-product) | 2.00% |
| 8. Chromium Commodity Tariff Adjustment (Pt/Pd/Rh/Ru as by-products) | |||
| PP 19/2025 | Proposal | ||
| Commodity | Tariff | Commodity | Tariff |
| Chromium Ore - Chromium | 5.00% | Chromium Ore - Chromium | 5.00% |
| Chromium Ore - Pt/Pd/Rh/Ru (by-product) | 1.00% | Chromium Ore - Pt/Pd/Rh/Ru (by-product) | 3.00% |
| Chromium Concentrate - Chromium | 4.00% | Chromium Concentrate - Chromium | 4.00% |
| Chromium Concentrate - Pt/Pd/Rh/Ru | 1.00% | Chromium Concentrate - Pt/Pd/Rh/Ru (by-product) | 3.00% |
| Chromium Metal | 2.00% | Chromium Metal | 2.00% |
| 9. Cluster Adjustment for Zinc Concentrate and Lead Concentrate Commodities | |||
| Commodity (Proposal) | Unit | Tariff | |
| a) Zinc Concentrate | per ton | 4.00% of Price | |
| b) Lead Concentrate - i. Lead | per ton | 4.00% of Price | |
| ii. Gold (as by-product) | |||
| HMA < USD2,500 | per troy ounce | 14.00% of Price | |
| USD2,500 ≤ HMA < USD3,000 | per troy ounce | 15.00% of Price | |
| USD3,000 ≤ HMA < USD3,500 | per troy ounce | 16.00% of Price | |
| USD3,500 ≤ HMA < USD4,000 | per troy ounce | 17.00% of Price | |
| USD4,000 ≤ HMA < USD4,500 | per troy ounce | 18.00% of Price | |
| USD4,500 ≤ HMA < USD5,000 | per troy ounce | 19.00% of Price | |
| HMA ≥ USD5,000 | per troy ounce | 20.00% of Price | |
| iii. Silver (as by-product) | |||
| HMA < USD60 | per troy ounce | 5.00% of Price | |
| USD60 ≤ HMA < USD80 | per troy ounce | 6.00% of Price | |
| USD80 ≤ HMA < USD100 | per troy ounce | 7.00% of Price | |
| HMA ≥ USD100 | per troy ounce | 8.00% of Price | |
| 10. Addition of Iron Commodity Type and Tariff (Proposal) | |||
| Iron Commodity | Unit | Tariff | |
| a) Iron Ore | per ton | 10.00% of Price | |
| b) Processing Products - i. Iron Concentrate | per ton | 5.00% of Price | |
| ii. Pellet (Pelletize) | per ton | 5.00% of Price | |
| c) Refining Products - i. Sponge Iron | per ton | 3.00% of Price | |
| ii. Alloy Pig Iron | per ton | 2.50% of Price | |
| iii. Pig Iron, Iron Nugget, Iron Alloy | per ton | 2.00% of Price | |
| 11. Addition of Cobalt Royalty Tariff as By-Product Mineral in Processing/Refining Products other than Nickel | |||
| Type (Proposal) | Unit | Tariff | |
| Cobalt as by-product mineral in processing and/or refining products other than Nickel commodities | per ton | 2.00% of Price | |
INVESTMENT RATINGS
A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general.
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Michael Wildon Ng (michael.wildon@verdhana.id)
Nizam Syafik (nizam.syafik@verdhana.id)
saya
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