3Q25 pre-sales – softest since 3Q23, but a low base for recovery

Major developers (Ciputra Development [CTRA IJ, Buy], Bumi Serpong Damai [BSDE IJ, Buy], Summarecon Agung [SMRA IJ, Buy], and Pakuwon Jati [PWON IJ, Buy]) booked 3Q25 pre-sales of IDR5.6tn (-5.4% y-y), the weakest since 4Q23, amid softer purchasing power and limited catalysts. We observe that developers have shifted their focus to Greater Jakarta (59% of total, 1Q23: 43%) to tap into the strong purchasing power and sustain steady take-up amid soft commodity-linked demand. Despite weaker volumes, residential ASPs held firm at IDR3.2bn/unit (+4.8% y-y) and shophouse sales remained solid—driven by BSDE (+21% y-y) and SMRA (+91% y-y). Given current conditions, CTRA and PWON have cut their FY25E targets by 10% and 33% to IDR10tn and IDR1.3tn, respectively, while BSDE and SMRA have maintained theirs.

4Q25F outlook: Strong seasonality ahead with multiple launches in the pipeline

We expect our covered major developers’ 4Q25F pre-sales to reach IDR7.2tn (-2.2% y-y), bringing FY25F pre-sales to IDR26tn (-1.1% y-y). This reflects typical year-end seasonality, as developers tend to backload project launches. Our channel checks suggest several key launches in 4Q25: BSDE will introduce Nava Park (ASPs starting at IDR50bn/unit) and 4–5 additional projects in the shophouse and residential segments across BSD City, Grand Wisata, and Kota Wisata. PWON will soft-launch its Kota Kasablanka extension (120 units, IDR4.5bn/unit), while CTRA and SMRA are likely to maintain their current launch momentum to meet full-year targets.

Valuations remain attractive, maintain Buy stance

We reiterate our Buy rating on the property sector, with a pecking order of PWON > CTRA > BSDE > SMRA. We believe the extension of the VAT exemption program, coupled with limited upside in mortgage rates, will support affordability and sustain housing demand. Sector valuations remain compelling, trading at an 84% discount to NAV, 6.7x forward P/E (-1SD of 10Y) and 0.5x P/B (-1SD of 10Y).

Key risks to our call include: (1) persistently weak purchasing power, (2) uncertainty over fiscal incentives, and (3) sticky deposit rates amid tight liquidity.

Fig. 2: Pre-sales trend

Fig. 3: Greater Jakarta led in terms of contribution, helping sustain the average ASP level

Fig. 4: Shophouse sales remained strong, while residential demand softened

Fig. 5: Seasonal trends typically strengthen in 4Q

Fig. 6: Accommodative policy rate limits urgency to hike mortgage rates

Fig. 8: Property sector discount to NAV band

Fig. 9: Property sector P/E trend – at -1SD of 10Y

Fig. 10: Property sector P/B band – below -1SD of 10Y

INVESTMENT RATINGS
A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general. 

GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER 
This report is prepared by PT Verdhana Sekuritas Indonesia (“PTVSI”) a securities company registered in Indonesia, supervised by Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK) and a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).

This report is intended for client of PTVSI only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of PTVSI.

The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but PTVSI do not make any representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. The information in this report is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or condensed and it may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report. Any information, valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or targets herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report is published, and there is no assurance that future results or events will be consistent.

This report is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or financial products. PTVSI and its associates, its directors, and/or its employees may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in this report or it may or will engage in any securities transaction or other capital market services for the company (companies) mentioned herein.

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report and certifies that the views about the companies including their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views.  The analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

RESTRICTIONS ON DISTRIBUTION

By accepting this report, the recipient hereof represents and warrants that you are entitled to receive such report in accordance with the restrictions and agrees to be bound by the limitations contained herein. Neither this report nor any copy hereof may be distributed except in compliance with applicable Indonesian capital market laws and regulations. 

Gerald Hugo (Gerald.Hugo@verdhana.id)

Felix Justin (Felix.wirianto@verdhana.id)

Jupriadi Tan (Jupriadi.tan@verdhana.id)