Earlier festive timing drove retailers’ 1Q26 SSSG

Retailers generally booked strong 1Q26 SSSG (Fig. 2:), with the magnitude of revenue growth varying across companies, largely driven by store expansion (Fig. 2). This was expected, given the earlier Eid holiday in 2026 (by ~10 days vs last year), which pulled forward consumer spending.

The strong SSSG also supported net margin expansion (Fig. 3), as sales growth more than offset rising costs, primarily salary increases. Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ, Buy) and Erajaya (ERAA IJ, Buy) recorded the strongest SSSG growth, driven by solid performance following the iPhone 17 launch (Fig. 4). Meanwhile, MR DIY Indonesia (MDIY IJ, Buy) delivered the highest revenue growth, supported by aggressive store expansion.

In contrast, only Azko (ACES IJ, Buy) reported below-expectation earnings due to input cost pressures, particularly from forex and logistics.

2Q26F likely to be challenging; minimarkets should remain resilient

Our channel checks suggest retailers saw a sharp drop in April SSSG due to the shift in Eid timing, which could partially offset the strong 1Q26 performance. We also see limited spending catalysts in 2Q-3Q26F, as Indonesian consumers typically concentrate spending during Eid (1Q) and year-end holidays (4Q), making the interim quarters more challenging.

Minimarket operators such as Alfamart (AMRT IJ, Buy) and Alfamidi (MIDI IJ, Buy) should be relatively more resilient, given their focus on daily necessities. In addition, the July-November period presents a low base, following last year’s rice scarcity in the modern trade channel, which had weighed on traffic and SSSG.

For discretionary players, ERAA and MAPI have largely exited their low-base advantage, as the iPhone 16 launch already occurred in April 2025. We therefore expect a sharper normalization in revenue growth for both in 2Q26F.

For MAPI, competition risk may increase with the potential entry of Chinese fashion brands into the premium segment. That said, we believe MAP Active (MAPA IJ, Buy) should perform relatively better, supported by limited competition in the activewear space. However, given elevated inventory days post-Lebaran and a high proportion of aged inventory, further clearance activity is likely in the coming quarters.

Outlook: Still prefer minimarkets over discretionary

Our sector preference remains: MIDI > AMRT > MDIY > MAPA > ERAA > MAPI > ACES > LPPF > RALS.

Beyond relatively resilient SSSG, minimarkets are also more insulated from raw material and forex cost pressures faced by FMCG players, as they can pass through price increases to consumers. Indeed, moderate inflation tends to be marginally positive for minimarket growth.

The government’s village cooperative program is unlikely to pose a significant competitive threat, given differences in location focus, its role in supporting local farmers, and most importantly, the minimarket value proposition of completeness, convenience, affordability, and proximity, which is difficult to replicate.

While this may be one of the more challenging periods for discretionary retailers, it also presents an opportunity to streamline operations and improve efficiency. This could position them to deliver stronger profitability once consumer spending recovers.

 

Fig. 1: Results summary

Ticker	Rating	y-y Sales growth 1Q26 (%)	y-y NPAT growth 1Q26 (%)	Sales contribution to cons est (%)	NPAT contribution to cons est (%)	Nomura expectations	Implied FY26F P/E (x)
ACES	Buy	10.1	15.5	24.8	19.4	In-line	8.0
AMRT	Buy	7.5	10.3	25.5	27.7	In-line	14.0
ERAA	Buy	41.1	122.7	28.7	34.8	Above	5.0
LPPF	Reduce	3.8	7.6	41.8	87.2	In-line	4.4
MAPA	Buy	14.7	38.4	22.5	25.5	In-line	9.5
MAPI	Buy	32.2	33.0	26.9	27.5	In-line	9.5
MDIY	Buy	31.0	35.8	24.9	17.6	In-line	16.1
MIDI	Buy	6.4	39.5	26.4	30.7	In-line	11.6
RALS	Reduce	-14.0	-11.3	39.7	65.2	In-line	10.2

 

Fig. 2: Retailers 1Q26 y-y SSSG and revenue

 

Fig. 3: Retailers 1Q25 vs 1Q26 net margin – Broad margin expansion from strong SSSG

Fig. 4: MAPI’s digimap revenue trend and contribution

 

Fig. 5: 1Q23-1Q26 Retailers’ revenue trends

 

Fig. 6: 1Q23-1Q26 Retailers’ net profit trends

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Jody Wijaya (jody.wijaya@verdhana.id)

Sandy Ham (sandy.ham@verdhana.id)

Nayla Yasmin (nayla.yasmin@verdhana.id)

Samuel Christian (samuel.christian@verdhana.id)