Mayora Indah MYOR IJ Buy - Indonesia superior multinational company
MYOR is one of the biggest and fastest-growing FMCG exporters among listed firms in Indonesia
Food Beverages n Tobacco SH SC JW 1.1K 17th Sep, 2025
Maintain Buy with a lower TP of IDR685
Improved growth trajectory in 2H25F
We project SIDO to record +4.3% y-y sales growth in 2H25F (vs. -3.6% in 1H25), implying a flattish sales growth trend for FY25F. The Herbal segment, through its Tolak Angin brand, will likely be the main sales growth driver, in our view, as the company could push the stock to distributors if it anticipates higher demand, driven by: 1) restocking activities due to an earlier festive season next year; 2) potential ‘last bite effect’ before ASP adjustment; 3) higher frequency of consumption during the rainy season; and 4) potentially stronger buying power of consumers amid high government expenditure. We also expect margins to improve, underpinned by an improved sales mix (higher herbal contribution), which should translate into higher NPAT growth, we estimate.
Outlook for FY26F
We expect SIDO’s sales growth to reach ~7% y-y in FY26F, driven by a ~2% ASP hike and ~5% stronger volumes. We expect the company’s overall FMCG sales volumes to improve on the back of more aggressive government expenditure. However, in terms of market share, we expect Tolak Angin’s share to decline on competitors’ more aggressive marketing campaigns and their cheaper price points. Margins, though, should be stable, in our view, resulting in likely high-single-digit NPAT growth next year.
Maintain Buy; less downside risk
We reaffirm Buy with a lower TP of IDR685 (from IDR700), based on a target 17.4x FY25F P/E (multiple unchanged, -0.8SD to its five-year mean). Our target P/E is lower than our covered FMCG peers’ average (around 20x P/E), which we attribute to SIDO’s slower earnings growth vs peers. However, we find the current valuation still undemanding, at 13.7x FY25F P/E (EPS: IDR39). In addition, the company’s owner can also potentially support share price through buybacks, given the currently undemanding valuation, not to mention the ~7% potential dividend yield, which implies total shareholder returns (TSR) of 34%. We think SIDO can be a good shelter stock for investors. A catalyst, in our view, would be a potential favourable strategic partner, as we think the company needs more network to expand its exports market. Meanwhile, a downside risk would be bigger-than-expected market share erosion.
| Year-end 31 Dec | FY24 | FY25F | FY26F | FY27F | |||
| Currency (IDR) | Actual | Old | New | Old | New | Old | New |
| Revenue (bn) | 3,919 | 4,174 | 3,932 | 4,455 | 4,216 | 0 | 4,497 |
| Reported net profit (bn) | 1,171 | 1,201 | 1,184 | 1,284 | 1,268 | 0 | 1,354 |
| Normalised net profit (bn) | 1,171 | 1,201 | 1,184 | 1,284 | 1,268 | 0 | 1,354 |
| FD normalised EPS | 39.03 | 40.02 | 39.46 | 42.79 | 42.27 | 45.14 | |
| FD norm. EPS growth (%) | 23.2 | 9.1 | 1.1 | 6.9 | 7.1 | 6.8 | |
| FD normalised P/E (x) | 13.8 | – | 13.7 | – | 12.8 | – | 12.0 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 9.7 | – | 9.5 | – | 9.0 | – | 8.4 |
| Price/book (x) | 4.6 | – | 4.6 | – | 4.5 | – | 4.4 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 6.9 | – | 6.9 | – | 7.4 | – | 7.9 |
| ROE (%) | 34.1 | 32.8 | 33.7 | 33.7 | 35.4 | 37.2 | |
| Net debt/equity (%) | net cash | net cash | net cash | net cash | net cash | net cash | |
Income statement (IDRbn) | |||||||||||||||||||
Year-end 31 Dec | FY23 | FY24 | FY25F | FY26F | FY27F | ||||||||||||||
Revenue | 3,566 | 3,919 | 3,932 | 4,216 | 4,497 | ||||||||||||||
Cost of goods sold | -1,547 | -1,618 | -1,619 | -1,717 | -1,820 | ||||||||||||||
Gross profit | 2,019 | 2,301 | 2,313 | 2,499 | 2,678 | ||||||||||||||
SG&A | -775 | -827 | -823 | -903 | -964 | ||||||||||||||
Employee share expense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Operating profit | 1,244 | 1,474 | 1,490 | 1,595 | 1,714 | ||||||||||||||
EBITDA | 1,347 | 1,580 | 1,604 | 1,716 | 1,841 | ||||||||||||||
Depreciation | -104 | -106 | -114 | -121 | -127 | ||||||||||||||
Amortisation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
EBIT | 1,244 | 1,474 | 1,490 | 1,595 | 1,714 | ||||||||||||||
Net interest expense | 29 | 39 | 39 | 42 | 34 | ||||||||||||||
Associates & JCEs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Other income | -53 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 | ||||||||||||||
Earnings before tax | 1,220 | 1,510 | 1,527 | 1,634 | 1,745 | ||||||||||||||
Income tax | -269 | -339 | -343 | -367 | -392 | ||||||||||||||
Net profit after tax | 951 | 1,171 | 1,184 | 1,267 | 1,353 | ||||||||||||||
Minority interests | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
Other items | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Preferred dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Normalised NPAT | 951 | 1,171 | 1,184 | 1,268 | 1,354 | ||||||||||||||
Extraordinary items | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Reported NPAT | 951 | 1,171 | 1,184 | 1,268 | 1,354 | ||||||||||||||
Dividends | -1,080 | -1,112 | -1,125 | -1,205 | -1,287 | ||||||||||||||
Transfer to reserves | -129 | 59 | 59 | 63 | 68 | ||||||||||||||
Valuations and ratios | |||||||||||||||||||
Reported P/E (x) | 17.0 | 13.8 | 13.7 | 12.8 | 12.0 | ||||||||||||||
Normalised P/E (x) | 17.0 | 13.8 | 13.7 | 12.8 | 12.0 | ||||||||||||||
FD normalised P/E (x) | 17.0 | 13.8 | 13.7 | 12.8 | 12.0 | ||||||||||||||
Dividend yield (%) | 6.7 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 7.9 | ||||||||||||||
Price/cashflow (x) | 16.1 | 14.6 | 12.0 | 13.6 | 11.4 | ||||||||||||||
Price/book (x) | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 4.5 | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||
EV/EBITDA (x) | 11.4 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 9.0 | 8.4 | ||||||||||||||
EV/EBIT (x) | 12.4 | 10.4 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 9.0 | ||||||||||||||
Gross margin (%) | 56.6 | 58.7 | 58.8 | 59.3 | 59.5 | ||||||||||||||
EBITDA margin (%) | 37.8 | 40.3 | 40.8 | 40.7 | 40.9 | ||||||||||||||
EBIT margin (%) | 34.9 | 37.6 | 37.9 | 37.8 | 38.1 | ||||||||||||||
Net margin (%) | 26.7 | 29.9 | 30.1 | 30.1 | 30.1 | ||||||||||||||
Effective tax rate (%) | 22.0 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | ||||||||||||||
Dividend payout (%) | 113.6 | 95.0 | 95.0 | 95.0 | 95.0 | ||||||||||||||
ROE (%) | 27.3 | 34.1 | 33.7 | 35.4 | 37.2 | ||||||||||||||
ROA (pretax %) | 40.5 | 48.0 | 49.1 | 51.3 | 52.2 | ||||||||||||||
Growth (%) | |||||||||||||||||||
Revenue | -7.8 | 9.9 | 0.3 | 7.2 | 6.7 | ||||||||||||||
EBITDA | -8.3 | 17.3 | 1.5 | 6.9 | 7.3 | ||||||||||||||
Normalised EPS | -13.9 | 23.2 | 1.1 | 7.1 | 6.8 | ||||||||||||||
Normalised FDEPS | -13.9 | 23.2 | 1.1 | 7.1 | 6.8 | ||||||||||||||
Source: Company data, Verdhana estimates | |||||||||||||||||||
Cashflow statement (IDRbn) | |||||||||||||||||||
Year-end 31 Dec | FY23 | FY24 | FY25F | FY26F | FY27F | ||||||||||||||
EBITDA | 1,347 | 1,580 | 1,604 | 1,716 | 1,841 | ||||||||||||||
Change in working capital | -45 | -162 | 56 | -195 | -56 | ||||||||||||||
Other operating cashflow | -294 | -308 | -306 | -329 | -361 | ||||||||||||||
Cashflow from operations | 1,008 | 1,110 | 1,355 | 1,192 | 1,423 | ||||||||||||||
Capital expenditure | -46 | -53 | -150 | -150 | -150 | ||||||||||||||
Free cashflow | 962 | 1,057 | 1,205 | 1,042 | 1,273 | ||||||||||||||
Reduction in investments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Net acquisitions | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Dec in other LT assets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Inc in other LT liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Adjustments | 7 | 40 | -25 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
CF after investing acts | 969 | 1,097 | 1,180 | 1,042 | 1,273 | ||||||||||||||
Cash dividends | -1,068 | -1,080 | -1,112 | -1,125 | -1,205 | ||||||||||||||
Equity issue | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Debt issue | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Convertible debt issue | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Others | 6 | 9 | -12 | -80 | -81 | ||||||||||||||
CF from financial acts | -1,062 | -1,071 | -1,124 | -1,205 | -1,286 | ||||||||||||||
Net cashflow | -93 | 25 | 56 | -163 | -13 | ||||||||||||||
Beginning cash | 923 | 830 | 856 | 911 | 749 | ||||||||||||||
Ending cash | 830 | 856 | 911 | 749 | 735 | ||||||||||||||
Ending net debt | -830 | -856 | -911 | -749 | -735 | ||||||||||||||
Balance sheet (IDRbn) | |||||||||||||||||||
As at 31 Dec | FY23 | FY24 | FY25F | FY26F | FY27F | ||||||||||||||
Cash & equivalents | 830 | 856 | 911 | 749 | 735 | ||||||||||||||
Marketable securities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Accounts receivable | 791 | 873 | 704 | 880 | 939 | ||||||||||||||
Inventories | 408 | 432 | 447 | 481 | 494 | ||||||||||||||
Other current assets | 38 | 43 | 41 | 44 | 48 | ||||||||||||||
Total current assets | 2,067 | 2,204 | 2,104 | 2,154 | 2,216 | ||||||||||||||
LT investments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Fixed assets | 1,555 | 1,506 | 1,542 | 1,571 | 1,594 | ||||||||||||||
Goodwill | 91 | 91 | 91 | 91 | 91 | ||||||||||||||
Other intangible assets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Other LT assets | 178 | 138 | 163 | 163 | 163 | ||||||||||||||
Total assets | 3,891 | 3,940 | 3,900 | 3,980 | 4,065 | ||||||||||||||
Short-term debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Accounts payable | 194 | 188 | 164 | 174 | 184 | ||||||||||||||
Other current liabilities | 268 | 223 | 148 | 157 | 166 | ||||||||||||||
Total current liabilities | 462 | 411 | 312 | 331 | 350 | ||||||||||||||
Long-term debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Convertible debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Other LT liabilities | 43 | 40 | 41 | 41 | 41 | ||||||||||||||
Total liabilities | 505 | 452 | 353 | 372 | 391 | ||||||||||||||
Minority interest | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Preferred stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Common stock | 2,152 | 2,152 | 2,152 | 2,152 | 2,152 | ||||||||||||||
Retained earnings | 1,234 | 1,336 | 1,395 | 1,457 | 1,522 | ||||||||||||||
Proposed dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Other equity and reserves | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Total shareholders' equity | 3,386 | 3,488 | 3,547 | 3,608 | 3,674 | ||||||||||||||
Total equity & liabilities | 3,891 | 3,940 | 3,900 | 3,980 | 4,065 | ||||||||||||||
Liquidity (x) | |||||||||||||||||||
Current ratio | 4.47 | 5.36 | 6.73 | 6.51 | 6.34 | ||||||||||||||
Interest cover | – | – | – | – | – | ||||||||||||||
Leverage | |||||||||||||||||||
Net debt/EBITDA (x) | net cash | net cash | net cash | net cash | net cash | ||||||||||||||
Net debt/equity (%) | net cash | net cash | net cash | net cash | net cash | ||||||||||||||
Per share | |||||||||||||||||||
Reported EPS (IDR) | 31.69 | 39.03 | 39.46 | 42.27 | 45.14 | ||||||||||||||
Norm EPS (IDR) | 31.69 | 39.03 | 39.46 | 42.27 | 45.14 | ||||||||||||||
FD norm EPS (IDR) | 31.69 | 39.03 | 39.46 | 42.27 | 45.14 | ||||||||||||||
BVPS (IDR) | 112.86 | 116.26 | 118.23 | 120.28 | 122.47 | ||||||||||||||
DPS (IDR) | 36.00 | 37.08 | 37.49 | 40.16 | 42.89 | ||||||||||||||
Activity (days) | |||||||||||||||||||
Days receivable | 64.0 | 77.7 | 73.2 | 68.6 | 73.8 | ||||||||||||||
Days inventory | 106.9 | 95.1 | 99.1 | 98.7 | 97.8 | ||||||||||||||
Days payable | 45.3 | 43.2 | 39.7 | 35.9 | 35.8 | ||||||||||||||
Cash cycle | 125.6 | 129.5 | 132.7 | 131.4 | 135.8 | ||||||||||||||
Source: Company data, Verdhana estimates | |||||||||||||||||||
INVESTMENT RATINGS
A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general.
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| Rating Remains | Buy |
| Target price Reduced from IDR 700 | IDR 685 |
| Closing price 15 September 2025 | IDR 540 |
| Implied upside | +26.9% |
| Market Cap (USD mn) | 987.5 |
| ADT (USD mn) | 0.9 |
M cap (USDmn) | 987.5 |
Free float (%) | 22.4 |
3-mth ADT (USDmn) | 0.9 |
(%) | 1M | 3M | 12M |
Absolute (IDR) | 2.9 | 6.9 | -20.6 |
Absolute (USD) | 1.3 | 6.2 | -25.5 |
Rel to Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index | 2.4 | -3.8 | -22.2 |
Sandy Ham (sandy.ham@verdhana.id)
Samuel Christian (samuel.christian@verdhana.id)
Jody WIjaya (jody.wijaya@verdhana.id)
saya
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