Map Aktif Adiperkasa (MAPA IJ) (Buy) - Executing well despite a tough backdrop

Executing well despite a tough backdrop

4Q25 results review

MAPA delivered very strong earnings growth in 4Q25, driven by higher-than-expected gross profit margin (GPM) during the quarter. This was possibly supported by a higher proportion of full-price sales from newly purchased inventory ahead of the year-end holiday season, as the mix of older inventory was observed to be relatively elevated at the end of 9M25 (Fig. 2).

Same-store sales growth (SSSG) remained subdued at +2.4% y-y (Fig. 3), staying at low-single digit y-y growth range for over the past two years, with most of the overall sales growth driven by store expansion. Meanwhile, the opex-to-sales ratio increased only slightly, which we attribute to continued efficiency efforts and rationalization, particularly in overseas operations, which turned overall positive in 4Q25 (Fig. 4).

Short-term outlook remains challenging

One of the most frequently asked questions from investors following the results release is the sustainability of the elevated GPM in 4Q25. While the company has not disclosed its latest above six months old inventory share, the relatively high older inventory levels reported in 9M25, combined with the strong GPM in 4Q25, could indicate that inventory levels remained elevated during the quarter. This suggests the possibility of further inventory clearance in the next one to two quarters, which could result in lower GPM compared to 4Q25.

Although the company has not provided full guidance for 2026E, it has consistently delivered a GPM in the range of 46–48% over the years (Fig. 5). Improvement in the opex-to-sales ratio will likely depend heavily on SSSG, which we expect to be limited given our SSSG expectation of mid-single-digit y-y growth.

Maintain Buy with TP of IDR1,050

We maintain our Buy rating with a target price (TP) of IDR1,050, based on a 2026F P/E multiple of 16x, +1SD of its five-year average. While the short-term outlook for discretionary retailers, including MAPA, is not as strong as it was 3–4 years ago, we continue to see a compelling long-term growth story. MAPA remains the dominant player in Indonesia’s fast-growing activewear retail segment, with an expanding presence across Southeast Asia. We do not view the presence of Erajaya Active (ERAL IJ, not rated) as a significant threat, as we believe the growth opportunity within the activewear segment remains substantial.

Key downside risks include higher input costs due to a strengthening USD/IDR and weakening consumer spending power, particularly among mid- to upper-income consumers. The stock is currently trading at 9.9x 2026F P/E.

Fig. 1: 4Q25 results summary

MAPA IJ				QoQ	YoY			YoY	12M25/
Profit and loss statement (IDRbn)	4Q24	3Q25	4Q25	(%)	(%)	12M24	12M25	(%)	Consensus
Revenue	4,765	5,151	5,335	3.6	12.0	17,184	19,280	12.2	99.1
COGS	(2,614)	(2,778)	(2,759)	(0.7)	5.5	(9,262)	(10,191)	10.0
Gross profit	2,150	2,373	2,576	8.6	19.8	7,922	9,089	14.7
EBIT	586	726	854	17.6	45.9	2,155	2,535	17.6	108.0
Other income/(expenses)
Net financing income/(expense)	(52)	(37)	(37)	0.9	(29.1)	(183)	(157)	(14.0)
Net forex gain/(losses)	(47)	(22)	4	n.a.	n.a.	(29)	(18)	(37.9)
Others	(85)	(1)	(87)	6,398.1	2.6	(85)	(86)	0.9
Pre-tax profit	401	667	734	10.1	82.8	1,858	2,274	22.4
Net profit	252	500	559	11.9	121.4	1,354	1,721	27.1	112.2

Gross margin (%)	45.1	46.1	48.3			46.1	47.1
EBIT margin (%)	12.3	14.1	16.0			12.5	13.1
Pre-tax margin (%)	8.4	12.9	13.8			10.8	11.8
Net margin (%)	5.3	9.7	10.5			7.9	8.9

Balance sheet (IDRbn)	Dec-24	Sep-25	Dec-25
Cash and equivalents	1,041	653	1,458
Inventories	5,189	5,820	5,654
Total assets	12,839	13,207	14,179
Total liabilities	5,719	4,939	5,336
Interest bearing liabilities	492	0	0
Equity	6,961	8,139	8,715

Inventory Days	187.3	200.3	194.2
ROA (%)	7.9	15.1	15.8
ROE (%)	14.5	24.6	25.7
Gearing (%)	7.1	0.0	0.0
Net gearing (%)	n.c.	n.c.	n.c.

Source: Bloomberg consensus estimates, Company data, Verdhana estimates

INVESTMENT RATINGS
A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general.

GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared by PT Verdhana Sekuritas Indonesia (“PTVSI”) a securities company registered in Indonesia, supervised by Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK) and a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).

This report is intended for client of PTVSI only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of PTVSI.

The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but PTVSI do not make any representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. The information in this report is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or condensed and it may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report. Any information, valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or targets herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report is published, and there is no assurance that future results or events will be consistent.

This report is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or financial products. PTVSI and its associates, its directors, and/or its employees may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in this report or it may or will engage in any securities transaction or other capital market services for the company (companies) mentioned herein.

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report and certifies that the views about the companies including their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

RESTRICTIONS ON DISTRIBUTION

By accepting this report, the recipient hereof represents and warrants that you are entitled to receive such report in accordance with the restrictions and agrees to be bound by the limitations contained herein. Neither this report nor any copy hereof may be distributed except in compliance with applicable Indonesian capital market laws and regulations.

Rating Table

Rating Remains	Buy
Target price Remains	IDR 1,050
Closing price 2 April 2026	IDR 675

Research Analysts

Jody Wijaya (jody.wijaya@verdhana.id)

Sandy Ham (sandy.ham@verdhana.id)

Nayla Yasmin (nayla.yasmin@verdhana.id)

Samuel Christian (samuel.christian@verdhana.id)

Tags: RETAIL, Map Aktif Adiperkasa, MAPA, MAPA JK, MAPA IJ, Jody Wijaya, Sandy Ham, Nayla Yasmin, Samuel Christian

Map Aktif Adiperkasa (MAPA IJ) (Buy) - Executing well despite a tough backdrop

Executing well despite a tough backdrop

Fig. 1: 4Q25 results summary

Fig. 2: MAPA above six months old inventory as % of total inventory – Rising trend in 2025

Fig. 3: 1Q23-4Q25 SSSG – has been relatively soft for over the past two years

Fig. 4: Overseas biz quarterly net profit and net margin

Fig. 5: MAPA annual GPM trend – consistently ranges around 46-48% post-Covid

Fig. 6: Forward P/E band

Rating Table

Research Analysts

yudi Administrator

Indonesia Retailers - Limited surprises as expected

Map Aktif Adiperkasa MAPA IJ - Buy - Lowest margin for the year

Midi Utama Indonesia MIDI IJ - Buy - Strategic move for a more agile MIDI

Indonesia Retailers - Discretionary retail 3Q24F preview

Map Aktif Adiperkasa (MAPA IJ) (Buy) - Emerging stronger

Mitra Adiperkasa (MAPI IJ) (Buy) - Expecting short-term pressure

Map Aktif Adiperkasa (MAPA IJ) (Buy) - Executing well despite a tough backdrop

Fig. 1: 4Q25 results summary

Fig. 2: MAPA above six months old inventory as % of total inventory – Rising trend in 2025

Fig. 3: 1Q23-4Q25 SSSG – has been relatively soft for over the past two years

Fig. 4: Overseas biz quarterly net profit and net margin

Fig. 5: MAPA annual GPM trend – consistently ranges around 46-48% post-Covid

Fig. 6: Forward P/E band

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