Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ) (Buy) - Forex tailwind

Forex tailwind

Resilient margins with FY25-28F NPAT CAGR of 21% and undemanding valuation of 11x FY26F P/E

Margin recovery endures

We believe MYOR has one of the most resilient margins among listed Indonesia FMCG firms, led by its strong USD-denominated revenue generated from exports. We raise FY26F gross margin projection to 23.8% from 23.4%, repesenting a 180bp y-y rise. Strong GPM recovery is attributable to: 1) low costs of coffee and cocoa raw materials y-y even after pricing in a higher USD trend; 2) packaging costs gradually decline along with lower oil prices; and 3) extra margin from export markets due to a higher forex value. In terms of Opex, management is likely to maintain its A&P-to-sales ratio, in our view. We also raise our forecast on potential unrealized forex gains, which should boost MYOR’s net margin substantially. For FY27F and FY28F, we expect MYOR's margin to remain resilient, assuming relatively manageable key commodity price movements (i.e., coffee, sugar, cocoa, and coconut oil).

Export sales adjustment

MYOR has implemented a new strategy in ASEAN by adjusting down its inventory days from 40-45 days to 15-20 days since early Feb-26 so that it can be more agile and respond fast to any changes in market trends (i.e. fast in rolling out new products, communicating new campaigns, timely price adjustment, etc). Despite a lower inventory day level, management also ensures to sustain product availability in ASEAN markets without any delay. In our view, if this is executed well, MYOR could record accelerated market share expansion in ASEAN. But in the short term, we believe the company will record slightly lower export sales in 1H26F; we project sales to start to normalize in Aug-26F.

Maintain Buy on strong earnings momentum; raise target price

We adjust our NPAT forecasts by +2%/+0% for FY26F/27F on the back of a likely strong margin recovery. That said, MYOR could record strong +26% y-y NPAT growth this year, and we expect strong sales growth in the next few years to sustain its earnings growth trajectory, likely in double-digits percent growth. We recommend Buy for MYOR with a revised TP of IDR4,300 (slightly up from IDR4,200), using a target P/E of 26.5x FY26F (unchanged). Our premium valuation target incorporates considerable potential market upside in both domestic and export markets. Currently, the stock is trading at 11x P/E FY26F. Downside risks would be higher commodity prices movements.

Year-end 31 Dec	FY25		FY26F		FY27F		FY28F
Currency (IDR)	Actual	Old	New	Old	New	Old	New
Revenue (bn)	38,682	42,354	40,828	47,521	46,380	0	52,039
Reported net profit (bn)	2,865	3,561	3,617	4,500	4,505	0	5,293
Normalised net profit (bn)	2,865	3,561	3,617	4,500	4,505	0	5,293
FD normalised EPS	128.15	159.29	161.79	201.27	201.50		236.72
FD norm. EPS growth (%)	-4.5	30.1	26.3	26.4	24.5		17.5
FD normalised P/E (x)	14.5	–	11.5	–	9.2	–	7.8
EV/EBITDA (x)	9.1	–	7.5	–	6.3	–	5.4
Price/book (x)	2.3	–	2.1	–	1.9	–	1.7
Dividend yield (%)	3.9	–	4.9	–	6.0	–	7.1
ROE (%)	16.4	19.1	19.3	21.5	21.8		22.7
Net debt/equity (%)	13.4	6.6	9.3	4.3	8.3		6.5

Source: Company data, Verdhana estimates

Key data on Mayora Indah

Income statement (IDRbn)
Year-end 31 Dec	FY24	FY25	FY26F	FY27F	FY28F
Revenue	36,073	38,682	40,828	46,380	52,039
Cost of goods sold	-27,771	-30,189	-31,123	-34,945	-38,996
Gross profit	8,302	8,492	9,705	11,435	13,043
SG&A	-4,387	-4,769	-5,051	-5,652	-6,342
Employee share expense	0	0	0	0	0
Operating profit	3,915	3,724	4,655	5,783	6,701
EBITDA	4,883	4,878	5,779	6,975	7,964
Depreciation	-968	-1,154	-1,124	-1,191	-1,263
Amortisation	0	0	0	0	0
EBIT	3,915	3,724	4,655	5,783	6,701
Net interest expense	-274	-468	-345	-246	-167
Associates & JCEs	0	0	0	0	0
Other income	240	360	331	232	236
Earnings before tax	3,881	3,616	4,640	5,769	6,771
Income tax	-813	-707	-974	-1,211	-1,422
Net profit after tax	3,068	2,910	3,666	4,557	5,349
Minority interests	-67	-45	-48	-52	-56
Other items	0	0	0	0	0
Preferred dividends	0	0	0	0	0
Normalised NPAT	3,000	2,865	3,617	4,505	5,293
Extraordinary items	0	0	0	0	0
Reported NPAT	3,000	2,865	3,617	4,505	5,293
Dividends	-1,687	-1,600	-2,016	-2,507	-2,942
Transfer to reserves	1,313	1,265	1,601	1,999	2,351
Valuations and ratios
Reported P/E (x)	13.8	14.5	11.5	9.2	7.8
Normalised P/E (x)	13.8	14.5	11.5	9.2	7.8
FD normalised P/E (x)	13.8	14.5	11.5	9.2	7.8
Dividend yield (%)	4.1	3.9	4.9	6.0	7.1
Price/cashflow (x)	–	11.5	8.3	8.3	–
Price/book (x)	2.5	2.3	2.1	1.9	1.7
EV/EBITDA (x)	9.2	9.1	7.5	6.3	5.4
EV/EBIT (x)	11.5	11.9	9.4	7.5	6.5
Gross margin (%)	23.0	22.0	23.8	24.7	25.1
EBITDA margin (%)	13.5	12.6	14.2	15.0	15.3
EBIT margin (%)	10.9	9.6	11.4	12.5	12.9
Net margin (%)	8.3	7.4	8.9	9.7	10.2
Effective tax rate (%)	21.0	19.5	21.0	21.0	21.0
Dividend payout (%)	56.2	55.9	55.7	55.6	55.6
ROE (%)	18.8	16.4	19.3	21.8	22.7
ROA (pretax %)	17.5	14.7	18.1	21.1	22.1
Growth (%)
Revenue	14.6	7.2	5.5	13.6	12.2
EBITDA	-4.8	-0.1	18.5	20.7	14.2
Normalised EPS	-6.1	-4.5	26.3	24.5	17.5
Normalised FDEPS	-6.1	-4.5	26.3	24.5	17.5
Source: Company data, Verdhana estimates

Cashflow statement (IDRbn)
Year-end 31 Dec	FY24	FY25	FY26F	FY27F	FY28F
EBITDA	4,883	4,878	5,779	6,975	7,964
Change in working capital	-4,143	-417	235	-1,639	-1,705
Other operating cashflow	-915	-859	-1,037	-363	-7,964
Cashflow from operations	-175	3,602	4,976	4,973	-1,705
Capital expenditure	-2,306	-1,284	-2,060	-2,195	-929
Free cashflow	-2,481	2,318	2,916	2,777	-2,634
Reduction in investments	0	0	0	0	0
Net acquisitions	0	0	0	0	0
Dec in other LT assets	0	0	0	0	0
Inc in other LT liabilities	0	0	0	0	0
Adjustments	342	138	-2	-2	-2
CF after investing acts	-2,139	2,456	2,914	2,775	-2,636
Cash dividends	-1,622	-1,687	-1,600	-2,016	-2,507
Equity issue	0	0	0	0	0
Debt issue	3,764	395	-746	-574	-449
Convertible debt issue	0	0	0	0	0
Others	442	83	-703	-778	5,364
CF from financial acts	2,584	-1,210	-3,050	-3,368	2,408
Net cashflow	445	1,246	-137	-593	-228
Beginning cash	4,157	4,601	5,847	5,711	5,117
Ending cash	4,601	5,847	5,711	5,117	4,890
Ending net debt	3,347	2,418	1,808	1,827	1,606
Balance sheet (IDRbn)
As at 31 Dec	FY24	FY25	FY26F	FY27F	FY28F
Cash & equivalents	4,601	5,847	5,711	5,117	4,890
Marketable securities	0	0	0	0	0
Accounts receivable	7,252	8,776	8,389	9,530	10,693
Inventories	6,437	6,021	5,542	6,223	6,944
Other current assets	1,310	615	1,016	1,154	1,295
Total current assets	19,601	21,260	20,658	22,025	23,822
LT investments	0	0	0	0	0
Fixed assets	9,498	9,628	10,564	11,497	12,426
Goodwill	0	0	0	0	0
Other intangible assets	0	0	0	0	0
Other LT assets	630	492	495	497	500
Total assets	29,729	31,380	31,717	34,019	36,747
Short-term debt	3,825	2,741	2,270	1,959	1,759
Accounts payable	2,441	2,582	2,140	2,307	2,468
Other current liabilities	1,117	972	1,184	1,337	1,496
Total current liabilities	7,383	6,294	5,594	5,603	5,723
Long-term debt	4,123	5,524	5,248	4,986	4,736
Convertible debt	0	0	0	0	0
Other LT liabilities	1,120	1,199	1,199	1,199	1,199
Total liabilities	12,626	13,017	12,041	11,787	11,658
Minority interest	282	264	277	291	306
Preferred stock	0	0	0	0	0
Common stock	447	447	447	447	447
Retained earnings	16,384	18,001	19,302	21,843	24,686
Proposed dividends	0	0	0	0	0
Other equity and reserves	-11	-350	-350	-350	-350
Total shareholders' equity	16,820	18,098	19,399	21,940	24,783
Total equity & liabilities	29,728	31,380	31,717	34,019	36,747
Liquidity (x)
Current ratio	2.65	3.38	3.69	3.93	4.16
Interest cover	14.3	8.0	13.5	23.5	40.2
Leverage
Net debt/EBITDA (x)	0.69	0.50	0.31	0.26	0.20
Net debt/equity (%)	19.9	13.4	9.3	8.3	6.5
Per share
Reported EPS (IDR)	134.19	128.15	161.79	201.50	236.72
Norm EPS (IDR)	134.19	128.15	161.79	201.50	236.72
FD norm EPS (IDR)	134.19	128.15	161.79	201.50	236.72
BVPS (IDR)	752.29	809.46	867.62	981.28	1,108.41
DPS (IDR)	75.46	71.58	90.17	112.11	131.58
Activity (days)
Days receivable	68.0	75.6	76.7	70.5	71.1
Days inventory	65.7	75.3	67.8	61.4	61.8
Days payable	28.5	30.4	27.7	23.2	22.4
Cash cycle	105.2	120.6	116.8	108.7	110.5
Source: Company data, Verdhana estimates

Company profileMYOR is a leading player in Indonesia's food market, offering high-quality products at affordable price points. MYOR is also a market leader in some of its products, not only in Indonesia but also in the export market. Its products include food processing (53% of sales) and coffee products (47% sales). Its processed-food products include wafers, biscuits, chocolates, milk and cereals. The company also exports to the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, China, India, Africa, US, Russia, Middle East, Lebanon and Africa. Philippines, MYOR’s biggest export market, accounts for 30% of its exports.

Valuation MethodologyOur target price of IDR4,300 is based on FY26F P/E of 26.5x (+0.7SD of its five-year-mean). The benchmark index of the stock is JCI.

Risks that may impede the achievement of the target priceDownside risks would be higher commodity prices movement.

ESGMYOR is among the best Indonesian consumer companies in terms of good corporate governance practices, in our view. It has contributed to the Indonesian Food and Nutrition Society’s house-to-house and in-school education programs and has been promoting the ‘healthy breakfast movement’ across Southeast Asia. MYOR has also been offering technical assistance and training in planting coffee (one of its major raw materials) to reduce environmental waste, as well as ensuring long-term ability to produce high-quality products in order to help farmers and their communities.

INVESTMENT RATINGS
A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general.

GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared by PT Verdhana Sekuritas Indonesia (“PTVSI”) a securities company registered in Indonesia, supervised by Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK) and a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).

This report is intended for client of PTVSI only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of PTVSI.

The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but PTVSI do not make any representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. The information in this report is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or condensed and it may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report. Any information, valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or targets herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report is published, and there is no assurance that future results or events will be consistent.

This report is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or financial products. PTVSI and its associates, its directors, and/or its employees may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in this report or it may or will engage in any securities transaction or other capital market services for the company (companies) mentioned herein.

ANALYST CERTIFICATION
The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report and certifies that the views about the companies including their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.

RESTRICTIONS ON DISTRIBUTION

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Rating Table

Rating Remains	Buy
Target price Increased from IDR 4,200	IDR 4,300
Closing price 24 June 2026	IDR 1,855
Implied upside	+131.8%
Market Cap (USD mn)	2,313.8
ADT (USD mn)	1.2

Relative performance chart

Source: LSEG, Verdhana

M cap (USDmn)	2,313.8
Free float (%)	15.7
3-mth ADT (USDmn)	1.2

(%)	1M	3M	12M
Absolute (IDR)	-0.3	0.8	-9.5
Absolute (USD)	-1.6	-4.5	-17.5
Rel to Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index	4.2	18.0	4.8

Research Analysts

Sandy Ham (sandy.ham@verdhana.id)

Samuel Christian (samuel.christian@verdhana.id)

Jody Wijaya (jody.wijaya@verdhana.id)

Nayla Yasmin (nayla.yasmin@verdhana.id)

Tags: CONSUMER RELATED, Mayora Indah, MYOR, MYOR JK, MYOR IJ, Sandy Ham, Samuel Christian, Jody Wijaya, Nayla Yasmin

Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ) (Buy) - Forex tailwind

Forex tailwind

Key data on Mayora Indah

Fig. 1: MYOR – GPM trend

Fig. 2: MYOR – NPM trend

Fig. 3: MYOR ROE trend

Fig. 4: MYOR – Ownership structure

Fig. 5: MYOR – Forward P/E band

Rating Table

Relative performance chart

Research Analysts

yudi Administrator

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Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ) (Buy) - Forex tailwind

Fig. 1: MYOR – GPM trend

Fig. 2: MYOR – NPM trend

Fig. 3: MYOR ROE trend

Fig. 4: MYOR – Ownership structure

Fig. 5: MYOR – Forward P/E band

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