Kalbe Farma KLBF IJ -Buy- Transforming the brand
Consumer health is a very crucial division for KLBF, as it possesses the highest margin,
Consumer Durables SH JW SC 3K 28th Apr, 2025
Undervalued + stronger market domination
All-time high domestic sales + consistent strong export growth
Our industry survey indicated that MYOR’s 1Q25F domestic sales growth could reach low-teens y-y, which translates to record-high domestic sales (see Fig. 1). We think this is remarkable, given some challenges: 1) a high base effect in 1Q24 due to higher cash handouts during the election period; 2) reduced government spending in 1Q25; and 3) truck mobility restrictions nearing Lebaran disrupted one week’s worth of shipments (read 1Q25F preview). We expect MYOR to gain more demand on the back of: 1) middle-income-class downtrading trend, which seeks a cheaper but high-quality branded FMCG; and 2) higher disposable income for farmers might spur higher consumption on affordable luxury FMCG (read Anchor report and Indonesia’s growth engine). We believe MYOR can capture both trends backed by its competitive pricing strategy + global quality product standard (reflected in large export market) + extremely large general trade coverage (>1mn point of sales). On the other hand, export sales consistently booked double-digit sales growth over 2Q24-4Q24, due to a spike in market share in the Philippines (see Fig. 3), successful biscuits campaign in Malaysia, strong demand in China, and distribution penetration in India.
GPM slowly improved
We estimate a notable drop in 1Q25F y-y core profit, as we expect 1Q25F GPM may hover at ~22% (vs 27.8% in 1Q24), which is understandable given a spike in coffee and cocoa costs; however, in comparison to 3Q24 (20.5% GPM) and 4Q24 (20.9%), the company would likely show a gradual recovery. We estimate 1H25F GPM to remain at 22%, then possibly expanding to 24% in 2H25F due to a higher utilization rate and lower raw material costs. We note that MYOR normalized GPM hovers at >25%, leaving plenty of room for upside.
Maintain Buy recommendation
We like MYOR’s strategy of focusing on expanding market share and volume, which will provide them with stronger pricing power in the long run, in our view. We believe any potential knee-jerk reaction after 1Q25F results due to lower margins should be a good opportunity to accumulate the stock. We maintain our Buy call with a lower TP of IDR4,000 (from IDR4,300), based on an unchangedFY25F target P/E of 26.5x. Currently, the stock trades at a FY25F P/E of 16.5x. A downside risk would be weaker-than-expected buying power.
| Year-end 31 Dec | FY24 | FY25F | FY26F | FY27F | |||
| Currency (IDR) | Actual | Old | New | Old | New | Old | New |
| Revenue (bn) | 36,073 | 40,062 | 40,871 | 45,103 | 45,857 | 0 | 51,451 |
| Reported net profit (bn) | 3,000 | 3,611 | 3,354 | 4,258 | 4,178 | 0 | 5,120 |
| Normalised net profit (bn) | 3,000 | 3,611 | 3,354 | 4,258 | 4,178 | 0 | 5,120 |
| FD normalised EPS | 134.19 | 161.49 | 150.01 | 190.45 | 186.86 | 229.00 | |
| FD norm. EPS growth (%) | -6.1 | 28.5 | 11.8 | 17.9 | 24.6 | 22.6 | |
| FD normalised P/E (x) | 18.5 | – | 16.5 | – | 13.3 | – | 10.8 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 12.1 | – | 10.6 | – | 8.8 | – | 7.3 |
| Price/book (x) | 3.3 | – | 3.0 | – | 2.7 | – | 2.4 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 3.0 | – | 3.4 | – | 4.2 | – | 5.2 |
| ROE (%) | 18.8 | 20.9 | 19.2 | 21.8 | 21.6 | 23.3 | |
| Net debt/equity (%) | 19.9 | net cash | 12.1 | net cash | 6.0 | 3.1 | |
Income statement (IDRbn) | |||||||||||||||||||
Year-end 31 Dec | FY23 | FY24 | FY25F | FY26F | FY27F | ||||||||||||||
Revenue | 31,485 | 36,073 | 40,871 | 45,857 | 51,451 | ||||||||||||||
Cost of goods sold | -23,077 | -27,771 | -31,332 | -34,718 | -38,473 | ||||||||||||||
Gross profit | 8,408 | 8,302 | 9,539 | 11,139 | 12,978 | ||||||||||||||
SG&A | -4,108 | -4,387 | -5,109 | -5,732 | -6,431 | ||||||||||||||
Employee share expense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Operating profit | 4,299 | 3,915 | 4,430 | 5,407 | 6,547 | ||||||||||||||
EBITDA | 5,130 | 4,883 | 5,456 | 6,494 | 7,700 | ||||||||||||||
Depreciation | -831 | -968 | -1,026 | -1,087 | -1,153 | ||||||||||||||
Amortisation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
EBIT | 4,299 | 3,915 | 4,430 | 5,407 | 6,547 | ||||||||||||||
Net interest expense | -218 | -274 | -185 | -112 | -53 | ||||||||||||||
Associates & JCEs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Other income | 12 | 240 | 92 | 93 | 94 | ||||||||||||||
Earnings before tax | 4,094 | 3,881 | 4,338 | 5,388 | 6,588 | ||||||||||||||
Income tax | -849 | -813 | -911 | -1,131 | -1,384 | ||||||||||||||
Net profit after tax | 3,245 | 3,068 | 3,427 | 4,256 | 5,205 | ||||||||||||||
Minority interests | -51 | -67 | -73 | -78 | -85 | ||||||||||||||
Other items | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Preferred dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Normalised NPAT | 3,194 | 3,000 | 3,354 | 4,178 | 5,120 | ||||||||||||||
Extraordinary items | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Reported NPAT | 3,194 | 3,000 | 3,354 | 4,178 | 5,120 | ||||||||||||||
Dividends | -1,622 | -1,687 | -1,885 | -2,341 | -2,863 | ||||||||||||||
Transfer to reserves | 1,571 | 1,313 | 1,469 | 1,837 | 2,257 | ||||||||||||||
Valuations and ratios | |||||||||||||||||||
Reported P/E (x) | 17.4 | 18.5 | 16.5 | 13.3 | 10.8 | ||||||||||||||
Normalised P/E (x) | 17.4 | 18.5 | 16.5 | 13.3 | 10.8 | ||||||||||||||
FD normalised P/E (x) | 17.4 | 18.5 | 16.5 | 13.3 | 10.8 | ||||||||||||||
Dividend yield (%) | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 5.2 | ||||||||||||||
Price/cashflow (x) | 10.6 | – | 10.9 | 11.6 | – | ||||||||||||||
Price/book (x) | 3.7 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 2.4 | ||||||||||||||
EV/EBITDA (x) | 10.9 | 12.1 | 10.6 | 8.8 | 7.3 | ||||||||||||||
EV/EBIT (x) | 13.0 | 15.1 | 13.1 | 10.5 | 8.6 | ||||||||||||||
Gross margin (%) | 26.7 | 23.0 | 23.3 | 24.3 | 25.2 | ||||||||||||||
EBITDA margin (%) | 16.3 | 13.5 | 13.3 | 14.2 | 15.0 | ||||||||||||||
EBIT margin (%) | 13.7 | 10.9 | 10.8 | 11.8 | 12.7 | ||||||||||||||
Net margin (%) | 10.1 | 8.3 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 10.0 | ||||||||||||||
Effective tax rate (%) | 20.7 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | 21.0 | ||||||||||||||
Dividend payout (%) | 50.8 | 56.2 | 56.2 | 56.0 | 55.9 | ||||||||||||||
ROE (%) | 23.1 | 18.8 | 19.2 | 21.6 | 23.3 | ||||||||||||||
ROA (pretax %) | 22.2 | 17.5 | 17.5 | 20.6 | 23.0 | ||||||||||||||
Growth (%) | |||||||||||||||||||
Revenue | 2.7 | 14.6 | 13.3 | 12.2 | 12.2 | ||||||||||||||
EBITDA | 56.4 | -4.8 | 11.7 | 19.0 | 18.6 | ||||||||||||||
Normalised EPS | 64.4 | -6.1 | 11.8 | 24.6 | 22.6 | ||||||||||||||
Normalised FDEPS | 64.4 | -6.1 | 11.8 | 24.6 | 22.6 | ||||||||||||||
Source: Company data, Verdhana estimates | |||||||||||||||||||
Cashflow statement (IDRbn) | |||||||||||||||||||
Year-end 31 Dec | FY23 | FY24 | FY25F | FY26F | FY27F | ||||||||||||||
EBITDA | 5,130 | 4,883 | 5,456 | 6,494 | 7,700 | ||||||||||||||
Change in working capital | 1,129 | -4,143 | 701 | -487 | -1,440 | ||||||||||||||
Other operating cashflow | -1,030 | -915 | -1,076 | -1,229 | -7,700 | ||||||||||||||
Cashflow from operations | 5,230 | -175 | 5,081 | 4,778 | -1,440 | ||||||||||||||
Capital expenditure | -2,346 | -2,306 | -1,968 | -2,026 | -935 | ||||||||||||||
Free cashflow | 2,883 | -2,481 | 3,113 | 2,752 | -2,374 | ||||||||||||||
Reduction in investments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Net acquisitions | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Dec in other LT assets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Inc in other LT liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Adjustments | -113 | 342 | -3 | -3 | -3 | ||||||||||||||
CF after investing acts | 2,771 | -2,139 | 3,110 | 2,749 | -2,378 | ||||||||||||||
Cash dividends | -797 | -1,622 | -1,687 | -1,885 | -2,341 | ||||||||||||||
Equity issue | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Debt issue | -1,130 | 3,764 | -990 | -731 | -546 | ||||||||||||||
Convertible debt issue | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Others | 51 | 442 | -273 | 93 | 5,220 | ||||||||||||||
CF from financial acts | -1,876 | 2,584 | -2,950 | -2,522 | 2,333 | ||||||||||||||
Net cashflow | 895 | 445 | 160 | 227 | -45 | ||||||||||||||
Beginning cash | 3,262 | 4,157 | 4,601 | 4,761 | 4,988 | ||||||||||||||
Ending cash | 4,157 | 4,601 | 4,761 | 4,988 | 4,944 | ||||||||||||||
Ending net debt | 106 | 3,347 | 2,196 | 1,239 | 737 | ||||||||||||||
Balance sheet (IDRbn) | |||||||||||||||||||
As at 31 Dec | FY23 | FY24 | FY25F | FY26F | FY27F | ||||||||||||||
Cash & equivalents | 4,157 | 4,601 | 4,761 | 4,988 | 4,944 | ||||||||||||||
Marketable securities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Accounts receivable | 6,197 | 7,252 | 7,640 | 8,166 | 9,163 | ||||||||||||||
Inventories | 3,557 | 6,437 | 5,580 | 5,707 | 6,324 | ||||||||||||||
Other current assets | 828 | 1,310 | 1,120 | 1,256 | 1,410 | ||||||||||||||
Total current assets | 14,739 | 19,601 | 19,101 | 20,118 | 21,840 | ||||||||||||||
LT investments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Fixed assets | 8,160 | 9,498 | 10,440 | 11,378 | 12,313 | ||||||||||||||
Goodwill | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Other intangible assets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Other LT assets | 972 | 630 | 633 | 636 | 639 | ||||||||||||||
Total assets | 23,870 | 29,729 | 30,174 | 32,132 | 34,793 | ||||||||||||||
Short-term debt | 729 | 3,825 | 3,041 | 2,506 | 2,146 | ||||||||||||||
Accounts payable | 1,895 | 2,441 | 2,240 | 2,387 | 2,540 | ||||||||||||||
Other current liabilities | 1,389 | 1,117 | 1,359 | 1,515 | 1,689 | ||||||||||||||
Total current liabilities | 4,013 | 7,383 | 6,640 | 6,408 | 6,375 | ||||||||||||||
Long-term debt | 3,533 | 4,123 | 3,917 | 3,721 | 3,535 | ||||||||||||||
Convertible debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Other LT liabilities | 1,042 | 1,120 | 1,120 | 1,120 | 1,120 | ||||||||||||||
Total liabilities | 8,588 | 12,626 | 11,677 | 11,249 | 11,030 | ||||||||||||||
Minority interest | 243 | 282 | 296 | 311 | 326 | ||||||||||||||
Preferred stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Common stock | 447 | 447 | 447 | 447 | 447 | ||||||||||||||
Retained earnings | 14,605 | 16,384 | 17,753 | 20,125 | 22,989 | ||||||||||||||
Proposed dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Other equity and reserves | -13 | -11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Total shareholders' equity | 15,039 | 16,820 | 18,200 | 20,572 | 23,436 | ||||||||||||||
Total equity & liabilities | 23,870 | 29,728 | 30,173 | 32,132 | 34,792 | ||||||||||||||
Liquidity (x) | |||||||||||||||||||
Current ratio | 3.67 | 2.65 | 2.88 | 3.14 | 3.43 | ||||||||||||||
Interest cover | 19.7 | 14.3 | 24.0 | 48.3 | 124.4 | ||||||||||||||
Leverage | |||||||||||||||||||
Net debt/EBITDA (x) | 0.02 | 0.69 | 0.40 | 0.19 | 0.10 | ||||||||||||||
Net debt/equity (%) | 0.7 | 19.9 | 12.1 | 6.0 | 3.1 | ||||||||||||||
Per share | |||||||||||||||||||
Reported EPS (IDR) | 142.84 | 134.19 | 150.01 | 186.86 | 229.00 | ||||||||||||||
Norm EPS (IDR) | 142.84 | 134.19 | 150.01 | 186.86 | 229.00 | ||||||||||||||
FD norm EPS (IDR) | 142.84 | 134.19 | 150.01 | 186.86 | 229.00 | ||||||||||||||
BVPS (IDR) | 672.63 | 752.29 | 814.02 | 920.09 | 1,048.18 | ||||||||||||||
DPS (IDR) | 72.56 | 75.46 | 84.29 | 104.70 | 128.03 | ||||||||||||||
Activity (days) | |||||||||||||||||||
Days receivable | 74.4 | 68.2 | 66.5 | 62.9 | 61.5 | ||||||||||||||
Days inventory | 58.9 | 65.9 | 70.0 | 59.3 | 57.1 | ||||||||||||||
Days payable | 28.2 | 28.6 | 27.3 | 24.3 | 23.4 | ||||||||||||||
Cash cycle | 105.1 | 105.5 | 109.2 | 97.9 | 95.2 | ||||||||||||||
Source: Company data, Verdhana estimates | |||||||||||||||||||
INVESTMENT RATINGS
A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general.
GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER
This report is prepared by PT Verdhana Sekuritas Indonesia (“PTVSI”) a securities company registered in Indonesia, supervised by Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK) and a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).
This report is intended for client of PTVSI only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of PTVSI.
The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but PTVSI do not make any representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. The information in this report is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or condensed and it may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report. Any information, valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or targets herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report is published, and there is no assurance that future results or events will be consistent.
This report is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or financial products. PTVSI and its associates, its directors, and/or its employees may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in this report or it may or will engage in any securities transaction or other capital market services for the company (companies) mentioned herein.
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report and certifies that the views about the companies including their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
RESTRICTIONS ON DISTRIBUTION
By accepting this report, the recipient hereof represents and warrants that you are entitled to receive such report in accordance with the restrictions and agrees to be bound by the limitations contained herein. Neither this report nor any copy hereof may be distributed except in compliance with applicable Indonesian capital market laws and regulations.
| Rating Remains | Buy |
| Target price Reduced from IDR 4,300 | IDR 4,000 |
| Closing price 25 April 2025 | IDR 2,480 |
| Implied upside | +61.3% |
| Market Cap (USD mn) | 3,295.7 |
| ADT (USD mn) | 0.9 |
M cap (USDmn) | 3,295.7 |
Free float (%) | 15.7 |
3-mth ADT (USDmn) | 0.9 |
(%) | 1M | 3M | 12M |
Absolute (IDR) | 18.7 | -1.6 | 1.2 |
Absolute (USD) | 17.0 | -5.4 | -2.6 |
Rel to Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index | 11.6 | 5.2 | 7.9 |
Sandy Ham (sandy.ham@verdhana.id)
Jody Wijaya (jody.wijaya@verdhana.id)
Samuel Christian (samuel.christian@verdhana.id)
saya
Consumer health is a very crucial division for KLBF, as it possesses the highest margin,
Based on our survey of distributors and wholesalers, MYOR's domestic sales may have grown
As mentioned in our previous reports, Indonesia local FMCG companies have
Our analysis of FMCG and retail sales data of companies we track across Indonesia suggests that Sulawesi,
AMRT has consistently outperformed its FMCG peers in terms of sales growth over the past decade
Indonesia is a young nation (110mn population are below 40yrs, based on BPS) as well as social media-savvy (th