4Q25 result recap

MIDI delivered strong earnings growth in 4Q25 despite softer SSSG of -0.4% y-y during the quarter. Gross profit margin (GPM) expanded meaningfully by +150bp y-y, driven by the company’s strategic move to reduce direct promotional discounts. We expect a similar trend to be reflected in Alfamart’s (AMRT IJ, Buy) FY25 results.

EBIT growth was further supported by a low base effect, given weaker GPM and operational losses from Lawson in the same period prior year. Meanwhile, Alfamidi-only FY25 NPAT grew by 18% y-y (vs. 45% y-y at the consolidated level). Overall, MIDI’s earnings came in above both our estimates and Bloomberg consensus expectations.

Expecting a strong 1Q26F on staples recovery and earlier festive season

We note that the rice scarcity issue in the modern trade channel, observed around Jul-2025, began to normalize in late Nov to Dec, leading to a recovery in customer traffic at the start of 2026. MIDI reported strong +9% y-y SSSG for Feb-2026 alone, reflecting a broad-based recovery across categories, supported by improved performance in staples (rice, sugar, cooking oil).

This was further boosted by the earlier festive season, which typically runs from D-45 to D+15 around Eid, and shifts forward by approximately two weeks each year. We believe minimarkets, including Alfamidi, are well-positioned to capitalize on this momentum, potentially achieving high single-digit SSSG in 1Q26F. Strong SSSG should also support margin sustainability or even further expansion.

Maintain Buy with TP of IDR630

We maintain our Buy call on MIDI with a target price of IDR630, based on 25x 2026F P/E. Despite FY25 results exceeding our expectations and the prospect of strong 1Q26F earnings, we keep our 2026F SSSG forecast at mid-single digit. This reflects an expected normalization in 2Q26F, as a potential moderation in Apr-26 following the earlier festive period.

We also do not observe any structural improvement in purchasing power, and expect the downtrading trend among middle-income consumers to persist throughout the year. Notably, 2H25 presents a lower base for SSSG, suggesting that continued recovery in staples and cigarettes will be key drivers for 2H26F growth.

However, the low base effect from last year’s performance, the defensive nature of its business model, and the company’s continued adaptability amid a challenging macro environment should support strong performance this year. We also see the potential of long-term rise in dividend payout ratio (Fig. 2), as company has consistently deliver a positive free cash flow, notably post right issue back in 2023 (Fig. 3). This reinforces our view of MIDI as one of our top picks in the sector.

While the direct impact of higher oil prices is likely to be limited, any ASP increases by FMCG players could provide a slight margin uplift for minimarkets. Key downside risk remains a sharper-than-expected deterioration in consumer purchasing power. Currently, the stock trades at 13.6x 2026F P/E.

 

 

Fig. 1: MIDI FY25 results summary

MIDI IJ				QoQ	YoY			YoY	12M25/	12M25/
Profit and loss statement (IDRbn)	4Q24	3Q25	4Q25	(%)	(%)	12M24	12M25	(%)	Nomura	Consensus
Revenue	5,202	4,905	5,367	9.4	3.2	19,888	20,642	3.8	100.0%	98.2%
COGS	3,876	3,593	3,918	9.1	1.1	14,656	15,247	4.0
Gross profit	1,326	1,312	1,449	10.5	9.3	5,232	5,396	3.1
EBIT (Incl. fee based)	79	221	182	(18.0)	130.5	597	849	42.2	100.0%	100.5%
Net interest income/(expense)	(13)	(6)	(9)	60.3	(27.2)	(49)	(29)	(39.7)
Other income (expense)	52	58	87	48.5	66.4	204	204	0.0
Pre-tax profit	97	252	238	(5.7)	144.3	670	938	40.0
Net profit	80	200	201	0.6	153.1	546	792	45.0	100.0%	107.1%
Gross margin (%)	25.5	26.7	27.0			26.3	26.1
EBIT margin (%)	1.5	4.5	3.4			3.0	4.1
Pre-tax margin (%)	1.9	5.1	4.4			3.4	4.5
Net margin (%)	1.5	4.1	3.8			2.7	3.8
Balance sheet (IDRbn)	Dec-24	Sep-25	Dec-25
Cash and equivalents	378	521	576
Total assets	8,733	8,475	9,130
Total liabilities	4,442	4,127	4,588
Interest bearing liabilities	-	-	-
Equity	4,291	4,348	4,542
ROA (%)	3.6	9.4	8.8
ROE (%)	7.4	18.4	17.7
Gearing (%)	-	-	-
Net gearing (%)	n.c.	n.c.	n.c.

Fig. 2: Dividend payout ratio

Fig. 3: Free cash flow trend

 

Fig. 4: Quarterly result

Fig. 5: Alfamidi-only revenue (IDRbn)

Fig. 6: MIDI NPAT ex-Lawson (IDRbn)

INVESTMENT RATINGS
A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general. 

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Jody Wijaya (jody.wijaya@verdhana.id),

Sandy Ham (sandy.ham@verdhana)

Nayla Yasmin (nayla.yasmin@verdhana.id)

Samuel Christian (samuel.christian@verdhana.id)