4Q25 results review

MAPI delivered strong 4Q25 earnings growth, driven by better-than-expected performance from MAP Active (MAPA IJ; Buy) and likely an additional boost from iP17 sales. This was partly supported by a low base last year, following the delayed iP16 launch in Indonesia.

Overall, gross profit margin (GPM) contracted y-y despite MAPA’s stronger performance, which we believe was driven by a higher contribution from Apple-related sales. These typically carry lower margins compared to MAPI’s other business segments.

The F&B segment has started to show signs of improvement, recording two consecutive quarters of positive same-store sales growth (SSSG) since 3Q25. However, competition remains intense, particularly from more affordable coffee brands.

Meanwhile, strong revenue growth in the specialty stores segment ex-MAPA helped reduce the opex-to-sales ratio, supporting robust earnings growth in 4Q25.

Growth remains dependent on MAPA

We do not expect the sales boost from iP17 to be a sustainable growth driver for MAPI. Instead, MAPA is likely to remain the company’s primary engine for both revenue and earnings growth.

While 1Q26F should still benefit from the earlier festive season and continued iP17 momentum, especially as iP16 was only launched in early 2Q25, we expect the remainder of the year to remain challenging. We have yet to identify any clear catalysts that could drive more aggressive spending from middle- to upper-income consumers.

New potential threat emerging?

Our discussions with unlisted retailers and mall operators suggest that several Chinese fast-fashion retailers may soon enter Indonesia. These brands could price their products at levels comparable to Uniqlo Indonesia (not listed), alongside a European mass-luxury brand. Notably, these entrants are likely to operate without partnering with large local retail chains.

This development does not come as a surprise, given the rising preference among Indonesian consumers for East Asian brands (as discussed in Cultural Exports as a Form of Influence). We believe this trend could pose a threat to both customer mindshare, particularly for premium-priced retailers, and competition for retail space in malls.

Maintain Buy with TP of IDR1,600

We maintain our Buy rating with a target price of IDR1,600 based on a 2026F P/E target of 12x, implying 9.4x. MAPI remains Indonesia’s largest discretionary retail chain operator based on brands and number of stores.. However, at a similar valuation of ~9x 2026F P/E, we continue to prefer its subsidiary, MAPA, given its stronger revenue and earnings growth profile. Key downside risks include higher input costs due to a strengthening USD/IDR and weakening consumer spending power, particularly among mid- to upper-income consumers. The stock is currently trading at 9x 2026F P/E.

Fig. 1: 4Q25 results summary

MAPI IJ				QoQ	YoY			YoY	12M25/
Profit and loss statement (IDRbn)	4Q24	3Q25	4Q25	(%)	(%)	12M24	12M25	(%)	Consensus
Revenue	10,220	10,475	13,046	24.5	27.7	37,836	43,083	13.9	104.8
COGS	(5,903)	(6,136)	(7,749)	26.3	31.3	(21,695)	(25,129)	15.8
Gross profit	4,316	4,339	5,297	22.1	22.7	16,140	17,954	11.2
EBIT	1,062	864	1,505	74.1	41.7	3,450	3,990	15.6	108.7
Other income/(expenses)
Net financing income/(expense)	(131)	(124)	(117)	(5.0)	(10.4)	(516)	(474)	(8.1)
Net forex gain/(losses)	(32)	(24)	33	n.a	n.a	(37)	24	n.a
Others	(139)	25	(91)	n.a	(34.7)	(64)	0	n.a
Pre-tax profit	761	741	1,330	79.5	74.9	2,834	3,540	24.9
Net profit	468	414	856	106.9	83.1	1,768	2,231	26.2	114.0
Gross margin (%)	42.2	41.4	40.6			42.7	41.7
EBIT margin (%)	10.4	8.3	11.5			9.1	9.3
Pre-tax margin (%)	7.4	7.1	10.2			7.5	8.2
Net margin (%)	4.6	4.0	6.6			4.7	5.2
Balance sheet (IDRbn)	Dec-24	Sep-25	Dec-25
Cash and equivalents	4,040	3,503	5,042
Inventory	8,290	9,768	9,342
Total assets	29,525	30,840	32,824
Total liabilities	15,074	14,634	15,613
Interest bearing liabilities	2,733	2,933	2,874
Equity	11,702	13,148	13,980
Inventory Days	144.1	132.0	141.5
ROA (%)	6.3	5.4	10.4
ROE (%)	16.0	12.6	24.5
Gearing (%)	23.4	22.3	20.6
Net gearing (%)	n.c.	n.c.	n.c.

 

Fig. 2: Financial results

Fig. 3: MAPI financial segment

	1Q24	2Q24	3Q24	4Q24	1Q25	2Q25	3Q25	4Q25	y-y
MAPA
Revenue	3,693	4,194	4,533	4,765	4,319	4,475	5,151	5,335	12.0%
EBIT	405	509	655	586	468	486	726	854	45.9%
NPAT	281	305	515	252	340	322	500	559	121.4%
Specialty Stores ex-MAPA
Revenue	3,612	3,393	3,571	3,870	3,471	4,278	3,759	6,057	56.5%
EBIT	201	332	96	336	228	331	86	574	70.8%
PBT	192	290	21	299	203	316	48	512	71.1%
Department Stores
Revenue	694	700	703	745	760	693	659	739	-0.8%
EBIT	101	79	83	151	141	75	71	90	-40.7%
PBT	72	51	54	141	120	55	47	105	-26.0%
F&B
Revenue	788	838	796	807	719	801	834	882	9.3%
EBIT	(26)	(22)	(36)	(12)	(62)	(35)	(27)	(13)	7.8%
PBT	(34)	(37)	(39)	(74)	(73)	(32)	(36)	(27)	-63.2%
Others
Revenue	75	77	59	73	63	69	67	61	-16.4%
EBIT	33	5	(27)	1	(6)	(6)	9	(0)	n.a.
PBT	23	5	(6)	18	4	3	16	6	-63.1%
EBIT Margin
MAPA	11.0%	12.1%	14.4%	12.3%	10.8%	10.9%	14.1%	16.0%
Specialty Stores ex-MAPA	5.6%	9.8%	2.7%	8.7%	6.6%	7.7%	2.3%	9.5%
Department Stores	14.6%	11.3%	11.8%	20.3%	18.6%	10.8%	10.8%	12.2%
F&B	-3.4%	-2.6%	-4.5%	-1.5%	-8.6%	-4.4%	-3.3%	-1.4%
Others	43.8%	6.3%	-46.6%	1.8%	-9.0%	-8.3%	13.0%	-0.4%

Fig. 4: Quarterly SSSG per segment

Fig. 5: Forward P/E band

INVESTMENT RATINGS
A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general. 

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Jody Wijaya (jody.wijaya@verdhana.id)

Sandy Ham (sandy.ham@verdhana.id)

Nayla Yasmin (nayla.yasmin@verdhana.id)

Samuel Christian (samuel.christian@verdhana.id)