Tower Bersama Infrastructure
TBIG has released its 1H24 results. Headline 1H24 profit of IDR731bn (+6% y-y) came in slightly behind our FY2
Maintain Buy; cut TP to IDR1,150 (from IDR1,450)
TOWR is set to conduct a rights issue by offering 8.08bn new shares (~13.91% of post-rights total) at IDR680/share, raising up to IDR5.5tn. A key shareholder, PT Sapta Adhikari Investama (52.46% pre-rights), will NOT exercise its rights while PT Dwimuria Investama Andalan (8.33%) will exercise and serve as standby buyer for up to 7.4bn unsubscribed shares. This is expected to reduce PT SAI’s stake to ~45.29% (from 52.46% currently) and increase PT DIA’s to as much as ~15.66% (with the assumption that the public will subscribe) or ~20.86% (with the assumption that the public will not subscribe) from 8.33%. All proceeds will be used to pay off some or all of its loans from six different lenders, which are due this year.
Earnings upgrades of ~2.3-5.7% for FY25-27F
Our earnings projection updates for FY25-27F are primarily driven by: 1) adjustments in depreciation assumptions; 2) lower net interest expenses; 3) higher EBITDA margins and improving interest coverage point to better capital efficiency; and 4) accommodating rights issues. Despite the earnings forecast upgrades, we lower our TP to IDR1,150 (from IDR1,450) due to: 1) higher cost of equity assumptions; 2) lower EPS (post rights issue); and 3) a more conservative growth outlook caused by the market disruptions happening in the telco sector that could affect the tower sector in general, in our view.
Valuation and risks
We derive our TP of IDR1,150 based on a DCF-based model, with a risk-free rate of 6.2%, a discount rate of 7.4%, a terminal growth rate of 1.0% and a beta of 1.0x, our WACC now stands at 8.1%. At our TP, the stock would trade at 10.2x 2025F EV/EBITDA. Downside risks include adverse macroeconomic developments, irrational competition leading to lower rental rates, lower than-projected tower renewal rental rates, slower organic growth, higher opex trends and/or co-los, and/or difficulties in securing new sites to accommodate telecom operators' network expansions, as well as consolidation of cellular operators.
| Year-end 31 Dec | FY24 | FY25F | FY26F | FY27F | |||
| Currency (IDR) | Actual | Old | New | Old | New | Old | New |
| Revenue (bn) | 12,736 | 12,883 | 12,883 | 13,329 | 13,329 | 13,774 | 13,774 |
| Reported net profit (bn) | 3,335 | 3,415 | 3,484 | 3,578 | 3,783 | 3,837 | 3,979 |
| Normalised net profit (bn) | 3,335 | 3,415 | 3,484 | 3,578 | 3,783 | 3,837 | 3,979 |
| FD normalised EPS | 65.38 | 66.94 | 68.29 | 70.13 | 74.15 | 75.22 | 77.99 |
| FD norm. EPS growth (%) | 2.5 | 2.4 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 8.6 | 7.3 | 5.2 |
| FD normalised P/E (x) | 8.3 | – | 8.0 | – | 7.3 | – | 7.0 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 7.4 | – | 6.4 | – | 6.0 | – | 5.7 |
| Price/book (x) | 1.5 | – | 1.0 | – | 0.9 | – | 0.8 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 3.2 | – | 3.3 | – | 3.5 | – | 3.8 |
| ROE (%) | 18.8 | 15.1 | 15.1 | 13.0 | 13.2 | 12.7 | 12.7 |
| Net debt/equity (%) | 268.9 | 178.0 | 151.4 | 153.9 | 133.4 | 129.9 | 116.6 |
Income statement (IDRbn) | |||||||||||||||||||
Year-end 31 Dec | FY23 | FY24 | FY25F | FY26F | FY27F | ||||||||||||||
Revenue | 11,740 | 12,736 | 12,883 | 13,329 | 13,774 | ||||||||||||||
Cost of goods sold | -3,528 | -3,996 | -4,425 | -4,633 | -4,929 | ||||||||||||||
Gross profit | 8,213 | 8,739 | 8,458 | 8,696 | 8,845 | ||||||||||||||
SG&A | -1,076 | -1,137 | -1,180 | -1,133 | -1,171 | ||||||||||||||
Employee share expense | |||||||||||||||||||
Operating profit | 7,136 | 7,602 | 7,278 | 7,563 | 7,675 | ||||||||||||||
EBITDA | 9,980 | 10,700 | 10,766 | 11,329 | 11,708 | ||||||||||||||
Depreciation | -2,573 | -2,800 | -3,160 | -3,409 | -3,650 | ||||||||||||||
Amortisation | -270 | -298 | -328 | -358 | -384 | ||||||||||||||
EBIT | 7,136 | 7,602 | 7,278 | 7,563 | 7,675 | ||||||||||||||
Net interest expense | -2,858 | -3,138 | -2,909 | -2,829 | -2,687 | ||||||||||||||
Associates & JCEs | |||||||||||||||||||
Other income | -174 | -269 | 24 | 36 | 30 | ||||||||||||||
Earnings before tax | 4,104 | 4,196 | 4,393 | 4,770 | 5,017 | ||||||||||||||
Income tax | -800 | -831 | -879 | -954 | -1,003 | ||||||||||||||
Net profit after tax | 3,304 | 3,365 | 3,514 | 3,816 | 4,013 | ||||||||||||||
Minorities | -51 | -29 | -30 | -33 | -35 | ||||||||||||||
Other items | |||||||||||||||||||
Preferred dividends | |||||||||||||||||||
Normalised NPAT | 3,253 | 3,335 | 3,484 | 3,783 | 3,979 | ||||||||||||||
Extraordinary items | |||||||||||||||||||
Reported NPAT | 3,253 | 3,335 | 3,484 | 3,783 | 3,979 | ||||||||||||||
Dividends | -1,200 | -901 | -924 | -965 | -1,048 | ||||||||||||||
Transfer to reserves | 2,053 | 2,434 | 2,560 | 2,818 | 2,931 | ||||||||||||||
Valuations and ratios | |||||||||||||||||||
Reported P/E (x) | 8.5 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||
Normalised P/E (x) | 8.5 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||
FD normalised P/E (x) | 8.5 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||
Dividend yield (%) | 4.3 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.8 | ||||||||||||||
Price/cashflow (x) | 3.0 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.6 | ||||||||||||||
Price/book (x) | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | ||||||||||||||
EV/EBITDA (x) | 7.2 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 6.0 | 5.7 | ||||||||||||||
EV/EBIT (x) | 10.1 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 9.0 | 8.7 | ||||||||||||||
Gross margin (%) | 70.0 | 68.6 | 65.7 | 65.2 | 64.2 | ||||||||||||||
EBITDA margin (%) | 85.0 | 84.0 | 83.6 | 85.0 | 85.0 | ||||||||||||||
EBIT margin (%) | 60.8 | 59.7 | 56.5 | 56.7 | 55.7 | ||||||||||||||
Net margin (%) | 27.7 | 26.2 | 27.0 | 28.4 | 28.9 | ||||||||||||||
Effective tax rate (%) | 19.5 | 19.8 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | ||||||||||||||
Dividend payout (%) | 36.9 | 27.0 | 26.5 | 25.5 | 26.3 | ||||||||||||||
ROE (%) | 21.1 | 18.8 | 15.1 | 13.2 | 12.7 | ||||||||||||||
ROA (pretax %) | 10.7 | 10.5 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 9.3 | ||||||||||||||
Growth (%) | |||||||||||||||||||
Revenue | 6.4 | 8.5 | 1.2 | 3.5 | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||
EBITDA | 4.9 | 7.2 | 0.6 | 5.2 | 3.3 | ||||||||||||||
Normalised EPS | -5.5 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 8.6 | 5.2 | ||||||||||||||
Normalised FDEPS | -5.5 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 8.6 | 5.2 | ||||||||||||||
Source: Company data, Verdhana estimates | |||||||||||||||||||
Cashflow statement (IDRbn) | |||||||||||||||||||
Year-end 31 Dec | FY23 | FY24 | FY25F | FY26F | FY27F | ||||||||||||||
EBITDA | 9,980 | 10,700 | 10,766 | 11,329 | 11,708 | ||||||||||||||
Change in working capital | 226 | -851 | 4,029 | 182 | 295 | ||||||||||||||
Other operating cashflow | -1,005 | 88 | -4,884 | -1,100 | -1,269 | ||||||||||||||
CF from operations | 9,200 | 9,937 | 9,911 | 10,411 | 10,734 | ||||||||||||||
Capital expenditure | -12,259 | -21,061 | -3,922 | -3,547 | -3,557 | ||||||||||||||
Free cashflow | -3,059 | -11,125 | 5,989 | 6,865 | 7,177 | ||||||||||||||
Reduction in investments | |||||||||||||||||||
Net acquisitions | |||||||||||||||||||
Dec in other LT assets | |||||||||||||||||||
Inc in other LT liabilities | |||||||||||||||||||
Adjustments | 6,533 | 10,147 | -2,977 | -3,138 | -3,264 | ||||||||||||||
CF after investing acts | 3,474 | -978 | 3,012 | 3,727 | 3,913 | ||||||||||||||
Cash dividends | -1,200 | -901 | -924 | -965 | -1,048 | ||||||||||||||
Equity issue | 3 | 208 | 5,497 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Debt issue | -59 | 7,423 | -7,700 | -2,232 | -2,120 | ||||||||||||||
Convertible debt issue | |||||||||||||||||||
Others | -2,043 | -5,290 | 5,186 | -1,748 | -1,370 | ||||||||||||||
CF from financial acts | -3,300 | 1,440 | 2,059 | -4,945 | -4,538 | ||||||||||||||
Net cashflow | 175 | 463 | 5,071 | -1,218 | -626 | ||||||||||||||
Beginning cash | 343 | 517 | 980 | 5,767 | 4,549 | ||||||||||||||
Ending cash | 517 | 980 | 6,051 | 4,549 | 3,923 | ||||||||||||||
Ending net debt | 44,396 | 51,356 | 41,101 | 39,976 | 38,375 | ||||||||||||||
Balance sheet (IDRbn) | |||||||||||||||||||
As at 31 Dec | FY23 | FY24 | FY25F | FY26F | FY27F | ||||||||||||||
Cash & equivalents | 517 | 980 | 5,767 | 4,549 | 3,923 | ||||||||||||||
Marketable securities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Accounts receivable | 3,145 | 3,396 | 3,300 | 3,414 | 3,528 | ||||||||||||||
Inventories | 15 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 16 | ||||||||||||||
Other current assets | 750 | 564 | 632 | 607 | 621 | ||||||||||||||
Total current assets | 4,427 | 4,956 | 9,714 | 8,586 | 8,088 | ||||||||||||||
LT investments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Fixed assets | 40,385 | 47,478 | 49,529 | 50,988 | 52,218 | ||||||||||||||
Goodwill | 15,509 | 15,834 | 15,834 | 15,834 | 15,834 | ||||||||||||||
Other intangible assets | 991 | 864 | 864 | 864 | 864 | ||||||||||||||
Other LT assets | 7,108 | 8,697 | 9,310 | 9,780 | 10,243 | ||||||||||||||
Total assets | 68,419 | 77,828 | 85,251 | 86,051 | 87,246 | ||||||||||||||
Short-term debt | 18,590 | 15,200 | 2,232 | 2,120 | 2,014 | ||||||||||||||
Accounts payable | 1,345 | 1,035 | 5,342 | 5,673 | 6,062 | ||||||||||||||
Other current liabilities | 4,364 | 3,889 | 3,583 | 3,524 | 3,557 | ||||||||||||||
Total current liabilities | 24,299 | 20,124 | 11,156 | 11,317 | 11,634 | ||||||||||||||
Long-term debt | 26,323 | 37,136 | 44,636 | 42,404 | 40,284 | ||||||||||||||
Convertible debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Other LT liabilities | 1,285 | 1,399 | 2,202 | 2,224 | 2,256 | ||||||||||||||
Total liabilities | 51,907 | 58,659 | 57,995 | 55,945 | 54,174 | ||||||||||||||
Minority interest | 55 | 71 | 101 | 134 | 169 | ||||||||||||||
Preferred stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Common stock | 528 | 532 | 6,028 | 6,028 | 6,028 | ||||||||||||||
Retained earnings | 16,689 | 19,123 | 21,682 | 24,500 | 27,431 | ||||||||||||||
Proposed dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Other equity and reserves | -760 | -556 | -556 | -556 | -556 | ||||||||||||||
Total shareholders' equity | 16,456 | 19,099 | 27,155 | 29,972 | 32,903 | ||||||||||||||
Total equity & liabilities | 68,419 | 77,828 | 85,251 | 86,051 | 87,246 | ||||||||||||||
Liquidity (x) | |||||||||||||||||||
Current ratio | 0.18 | 0.25 | 0.87 | 0.76 | 0.70 | ||||||||||||||
Interest cover | 2.5 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.9 | ||||||||||||||
Leverage | |||||||||||||||||||
Net debt/EBITDA (x) | 4.45 | 4.80 | 3.82 | 3.53 | 3.28 | ||||||||||||||
Net debt/equity (%) | 269.78 | 268.90 | 151.36 | 133.38 | 116.63 | ||||||||||||||
Per share | |||||||||||||||||||
Reported EPS (IDR) | 63.77 | 65.38 | 68.29 | 74.15 | 77.99 | ||||||||||||||
Norm EPS (IDR) | 63.77 | 65.38 | 68.29 | 74.15 | 77.99 | ||||||||||||||
FD norm EPS (IDR) | 63.77 | 65.38 | 68.29 | 74.15 | 77.99 | ||||||||||||||
BVPS (IDR) | 322.58 | 374.38 | 532.30 | 587.53 | 644.97 | ||||||||||||||
DPS (IDR) | 23.53 | 17.67 | 18.12 | 18.92 | 20.55 | ||||||||||||||
Activity (days) | |||||||||||||||||||
Days receivable | 89.8 | 94.0 | 94.8 | 91.9 | 92.0 | ||||||||||||||
Days inventory | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | ||||||||||||||
Days payable | 114.5 | 109.0 | 263.0 | 433.9 | 434.5 | ||||||||||||||
Cash cycle | -24.0 | -13.6 | -166.8 | -340.7 | -341.4 | ||||||||||||||
Source: Company data, Verdhana estimates | |||||||||||||||||||



| TOWR.JK | 2025F | 2026F | 2027F | 2028F | 2029F | 2030F |
| EBITDA | 10,766 | 11,329 | 11,708 | 12,087 | 12,465 | 12,844 |
| Capex | (3,922) | (3,547) | (3,557) | (3,568) | (3,578) | (3,589) |
| Working capital charges | 4,029 | 182 | 295 | 276 | 277 | 278 |
| Taxes | (879) | (954) | (1,003) | (1,053) | (1,113) | (1,181) |
| Free cash flow | 9,994 | 7,011 | 7,443 | 7,742 | 8,051 | 8,352 |
| FY25F | New | Old | ||||
| Terminal growth rate | 1.0% | TG | 1.0% | 1.0% | ||
| Terminal value | 118,075 | IDR bn | Rf | 6.2% | 6.2% | |
| PV of FCF | 110,325 | IDR bn | K | 7.4% | 7.4% | |
| Net (debt)/cash | (41,101) | IDR bn | Beta | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Less: minority interest | (101) | IDR bn | After tax CoD | 4.5% | 4.8% | |
| Equity value | 69,123 | IDR bn | WACC | 8.1% | 8.0% | |
| Shares outstanding | 59,098 | m shares | ||||
| Target price | 1,172 | IDR/share | Rounded to IDR1,150 | |||
| FY25F EV/EBITDA @ TP | 10.2 | |||||
INVESTMENT RATINGS
A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general.
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| Rating Remains | Buy |
| Target price Reduced from IDR 1,450 | IDR 1,150 |
| Closing price 10 July 2025 | IDR 545 |
| Implied upside | +111.0% |
| Market Cap (USD mn) | 1,986.3 |
| ADT (USD mn) | 1.2 |
M cap (USDmn) | 1,986.3 |
Free float (%) | 47.7 |
3-mth ADT (USDmn) | 1.2 |
(%) | 1M | 3M | 12M |
Absolute (IDR) | 3.8 | 5.8 | -30.1 |
Absolute (USD) | 4.1 | 9.6 | -30.0 |
Rel to Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index | 6.9 | -6.2 | -26.3 |
Erwin Wijaya (erwin.wijaya@verdhana.id)
saya
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