Tower Bersama Infrastructure
TBIG has released its 1H24 results. Headline 1H24 profit of IDR731bn (+6% y-y) came in slightly behind our FY2
FY24 profit came in down 4% y-y, cut earnings by 1-5% for FY25-26F; maintain Buy
Maintain Buy, TP cut to IDR3,650
Telkom has released its consolidated FY24 results. Broadly, they were behind our projections with headline profits down 4% y-y. Excluding ERP (early retirement costs) of IDR1.3tn in FY24, overall profit would be flat y-y. At the cellular division (i.e. Telkomsel and TSEL – Not listed), it booked a flat profit for FY24 as well, with its top line boosted by the full consolidation of indiHome (fixed broadband services). We attribute these soft results to still intense competition dynamics at the at cellular division.
Thankfully, major cellular companies’ data (including VAS) revenue trends in the past two years suggest that the industry is plateauing. This, in our view, suggests that operators would be increasingly pushing for price increases across their services. So far, we have seen some increases in starter packages. If persists, we could possibly see some upward price adjustments for renewal packages in 2H25F. This would be the main catalyst for the sector, we believe. Until then, we think the sector might continue to offer limited long-term upsides for investors.
Post results, we reduce FY25-26F EPS by 1-5%. We also adda new forecast year of FY27F. Post adjustments, our projections imply a largely flat 3-year earnings CAGR (FY25F-27F) of ~2%. Thus, we think the stock is increasingly becoming a dividend stock as the company aims for high payout ratios. Post these adjustments, we also cut our TP to IDR3,650 (from IDR4,100).
Valuation and risks
Post FY24 results, we revise down our TP to IDR3,650 (from IDR4,100). We derive our TP still based on DCF methodology for which we assume a risk-free rate of 6.5%, an equity risk premium of 7.8% and a terminal growth rate of 1.5% (previously 2.5%). At our TP, the stock would trade at 5.2x 2025F EV/EBITDA (compared with 3.7x at the current price). Risks are adverse macroeconomics, lower data traffic growth, irrational competition, lower ARPUs, declining cellular revenue market share from outside Java and difficulties in securing new sites for network expansion.
| Year-end 31 Dec | FY24 | FY25F | FY26F | FY27F | |||
| Currency (IDR) | Actual | Old | New | Old | New | Old | New |
| Revenue (bn) | 149,967 | 156,826 | 150,392 | 160,280 | 153,847 | 0 | 154,155 |
| Reported net profit (bn) | 23,649 | 25,493 | 24,245 | 25,518 | 25,381 | 0 | 25,357 |
| Normalised net profit (bn) | 23,649 | 25,493 | 24,245 | 25,518 | 25,381 | 0 | 25,357 |
| FD normalised EPS | 238.73 | 257.34 | 244.75 | 257.59 | 256.22 | 255.97 | |
| FD norm. EPS growth (%) | -3.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 0.1 | 4.7 | -0.1 | |
| FD normalised P/E (x) | 10.7 | – | 10.4 | – | 10.0 | – | 10.0 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 4.2 | – | 4.0 | – | 3.8 | – | 3.7 |
| Price/book (x) | 1.8 | – | 1.5 | – | 1.5 | – | 1.4 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 7.8 | – | 7.0 | – | 7.2 | – | 7.5 |
| ROE (%) | 17.0 | 15.3 | 15.7 | 14.7 | 14.9 | 14.3 | |
| Net debt/equity (%) | 16.3 | 1.2 | net cash | 1.3 | net cash | net cash | |
Income statement (IDRbn) | |||||||||||||||||||
Year-end 31 Dec | FY23 | FY24 | FY25F | FY26F | FY27F | ||||||||||||||
Revenue | 149,216 | 149,967 | 150,392 | 153,847 | 154,155 | ||||||||||||||
Cost of goods sold | -98,201 | -101,356 | -101,565 | -102,671 | -102,892 | ||||||||||||||
Gross profit | 51,015 | 48,611 | 48,827 | 51,176 | 51,263 | ||||||||||||||
SG&A | -6,099 | -6,225 | -6,920 | -7,058 | -7,070 | ||||||||||||||
Employee share expense | |||||||||||||||||||
Operating profit | 44,916 | 42,386 | 41,907 | 44,118 | 44,193 | ||||||||||||||
EBITDA | 77,579 | 75,029 | 72,814 | 74,659 | 74,430 | ||||||||||||||
Depreciation | -32,663 | -32,643 | -30,908 | -30,542 | -30,238 | ||||||||||||||
Amortisation | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
EBIT | 44,916 | 42,386 | 41,907 | 44,118 | 44,193 | ||||||||||||||
Net interest expense | -3,591 | -3,841 | -2,082 | -1,949 | -1,796 | ||||||||||||||
Associates & JCEs | |||||||||||||||||||
Other income | -531 | 608 | 500 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Earnings before tax | 40,794 | 39,153 | 40,325 | 42,170 | 42,397 | ||||||||||||||
Income tax | -8,586 | -8,410 | -8,624 | -9,009 | -9,062 | ||||||||||||||
Net profit after tax | 32,208 | 30,743 | 31,701 | 33,160 | 33,335 | ||||||||||||||
Minorities | -7,648 | -7,094 | -7,456 | -7,779 | -7,977 | ||||||||||||||
Other items | |||||||||||||||||||
Preferred dividends | |||||||||||||||||||
Normalised NPAT | 24,560 | 23,649 | 24,245 | 25,381 | 25,357 | ||||||||||||||
Extraordinary items | |||||||||||||||||||
Reported NPAT | 24,560 | 23,649 | 24,245 | 25,381 | 25,357 | ||||||||||||||
Dividends | -16,602 | -19,648 | -17,737 | -18,184 | -19,036 | ||||||||||||||
Transfer to reserves | 7,958 | 4,001 | 6,508 | 7,197 | 6,321 | ||||||||||||||
Valuations and ratios | |||||||||||||||||||
Reported P/E (x) | 10.3 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 10.0 | 10.0 | ||||||||||||||
Normalised P/E (x) | 10.3 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 10.0 | 10.0 | ||||||||||||||
FD normalised P/E (x) | 10.3 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 10.0 | 10.0 | ||||||||||||||
Dividend yield (%) | 6.6 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 7.5 | ||||||||||||||
Price/cashflow (x) | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.4 | ||||||||||||||
Price/book (x) | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||
EV/EBITDA (x) | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.7 | ||||||||||||||
EV/EBIT (x) | 7.1 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||
Gross margin (%) | 34.2 | 32.4 | 32.5 | 33.3 | 33.3 | ||||||||||||||
EBITDA margin (%) | 52.0 | 50.0 | 48.4 | 48.5 | 48.3 | ||||||||||||||
EBIT margin (%) | 30.1 | 28.3 | 27.9 | 28.7 | 28.7 | ||||||||||||||
Net margin (%) | 16.5 | 15.8 | 16.1 | 16.5 | 16.4 | ||||||||||||||
Effective tax rate (%) | 21.0 | 21.5 | 21.4 | 21.4 | 21.4 | ||||||||||||||
Dividend payout (%) | 67.6 | 83.1 | 73.2 | 71.6 | 75.1 | ||||||||||||||
ROE (%) | 18.5 | 17.0 | 15.7 | 14.9 | 14.3 | ||||||||||||||
ROA (pretax %) | 18.0 | 16.3 | 16.0 | 16.9 | 16.9 | ||||||||||||||
Growth (%) | |||||||||||||||||||
Revenue | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 2.3 | 0.2 | ||||||||||||||
EBITDA | -1.8 | -3.3 | -3.0 | 2.5 | -0.3 | ||||||||||||||
Normalised EPS | 18.3 | -3.7 | 2.5 | 4.7 | -0.1 | ||||||||||||||
Normalised FDEPS | 18.3 | -3.7 | 2.5 | 4.7 | -0.1 | ||||||||||||||
Source: Company data, Verdhana estimates | |||||||||||||||||||
Cashflow statement (IDRbn) | |||||||||||||||||||
Year-end 31 Dec | FY23 | FY24 | FY25F | FY26F | FY27F | ||||||||||||||
EBITDA | 77,579 | 75,029 | 72,814 | 74,659 | 74,430 | ||||||||||||||
Change in working capital | -1,735 | 9,051 | 248 | -4,537 | 346 | ||||||||||||||
Other operating cashflow | -3,796 | -14,178 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||
CF from operations | 72,048 | 69,902 | 73,063 | 70,124 | 74,777 | ||||||||||||||
Capital expenditure | -36,418 | -29,663 | -28,750 | -28,750 | -28,750 | ||||||||||||||
Free cashflow | 35,630 | 40,239 | 44,313 | 41,374 | 46,027 | ||||||||||||||
Reduction in investments | |||||||||||||||||||
Net acquisitions | |||||||||||||||||||
Dec in other LT assets | |||||||||||||||||||
Inc in other LT liabilities | |||||||||||||||||||
Adjustments | 59,871 | 57,651 | 62,357 | 59,166 | 63,919 | ||||||||||||||
CF after investing acts | 95,501 | 97,890 | 106,669 | 100,540 | 109,945 | ||||||||||||||
Cash dividends | -16,602 | -19,648 | -17,737 | -18,184 | -19,036 | ||||||||||||||
Equity issue | -58 | -142 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Debt issue | |||||||||||||||||||
Convertible debt issue | |||||||||||||||||||
Others | -81,469 | -73,578 | -81,265 | -76,730 | -81,330 | ||||||||||||||
CF from financial acts | -98,129 | -93,368 | -99,002 | -94,914 | -100,366 | ||||||||||||||
Net cashflow | -2,628 | 4,522 | 7,668 | 5,626 | 9,579 | ||||||||||||||
Beginning cash | 33,296 | 30,668 | 35,190 | 42,857 | 48,483 | ||||||||||||||
Ending cash | 30,668 | 35,190 | 42,858 | 48,483 | 58,062 | ||||||||||||||
Ending net debt | 22,606 | 23,210 | -293 | -5,919 | -15,498 | ||||||||||||||
Balance sheet (IDRbn) | |||||||||||||||||||
As at 31 Dec | FY23 | FY24 | FY25F | FY26F | FY27F | ||||||||||||||
Cash & equivalents | 30,668 | 35,190 | 42,857 | 48,483 | 58,062 | ||||||||||||||
Marketable securities | |||||||||||||||||||
Accounts receivable | 10,667 | 12,193 | 10,301 | 12,645 | 12,670 | ||||||||||||||
Inventories | 997 | 1,096 | 1,299 | 4,339 | 4,368 | ||||||||||||||
Other current assets | 13,281 | 14,601 | 14,601 | 14,601 | 14,601 | ||||||||||||||
Total current assets | 55,613 | 63,080 | 69,058 | 80,068 | 89,702 | ||||||||||||||
LT investments | 8,162 | 8,335 | 8,335 | 8,335 | 8,335 | ||||||||||||||
Fixed assets | 180,755 | 180,566 | 178,408 | 176,616 | 175,128 | ||||||||||||||
Goodwill | 8,731 | 9,442 | 8,331 | 7,351 | 6,486 | ||||||||||||||
Other intangible assets | |||||||||||||||||||
Other LT assets | 33,781 | 38,252 | 38,252 | 38,252 | 38,252 | ||||||||||||||
Total assets | 287,042 | 299,675 | 302,384 | 310,622 | 317,903 | ||||||||||||||
Short-term debt | 25,501 | 32,882 | 5,370 | 5,370 | 5,370 | ||||||||||||||
Accounts payable | 18,608 | 15,336 | 14,337 | 14,805 | 14,961 | ||||||||||||||
Other current liabilities | 27,459 | 28,549 | 28,106 | 28,486 | 28,731 | ||||||||||||||
Total current liabilities | 71,568 | 76,767 | 47,813 | 48,661 | 49,061 | ||||||||||||||
Long-term debt | 27,773 | 25,518 | 37,194 | 37,194 | 37,194 | ||||||||||||||
Convertible debt | |||||||||||||||||||
Other LT liabilities | 31,139 | 34,900 | 31,242 | 31,242 | 31,242 | ||||||||||||||
Total liabilities | 130,480 | 137,185 | 116,250 | 117,097 | 117,497 | ||||||||||||||
Minority interest | 20,818 | 20,396 | 19,988 | 19,734 | 19,441 | ||||||||||||||
Preferred stock | |||||||||||||||||||
Common stock | 17,303 | 17,161 | 17,161 | 17,161 | 17,161 | ||||||||||||||
Retained earnings | 118,441 | 124,933 | 148,985 | 156,630 | 163,804 | ||||||||||||||
Proposed dividends | |||||||||||||||||||
Other equity and reserves | |||||||||||||||||||
Total shareholders' equity | 135,744 | 142,094 | 166,146 | 173,791 | 180,965 | ||||||||||||||
Total equity & liabilities | 287,042 | 299,675 | 302,384 | 310,622 | 317,903 | ||||||||||||||
Liquidity (x) | |||||||||||||||||||
Current ratio | 0.78 | 0.82 | 1.44 | 1.65 | 1.83 | ||||||||||||||
Interest cover | 12.5 | 11.0 | 20.1 | 22.6 | 24.6 | ||||||||||||||
Leverage | |||||||||||||||||||
Net debt/EBITDA (x) | 0.29 | 0.31 | net cash | net cash | net cash | ||||||||||||||
Net debt/equity (%) | 16.65 | 16.33 | net cash | net cash | net cash | ||||||||||||||
Per share | |||||||||||||||||||
Reported EPS (IDR) | 247.92 | 238.73 | 244.75 | 256.22 | 255.97 | ||||||||||||||
Norm EPS (IDR) | 247.92 | 238.73 | 244.75 | 256.22 | 255.97 | ||||||||||||||
FD norm EPS (IDR) | 247.92 | 238.73 | 244.75 | 256.22 | 255.97 | ||||||||||||||
BVPS (IDR) | 1,370.29 | 1,434.39 | 1,677.19 | 1,754.36 | 1,826.78 | ||||||||||||||
DPS (IDR) | 167.60 | 198.34 | 179.05 | 183.56 | 192.16 | ||||||||||||||
Activity (days) | |||||||||||||||||||
Days receivable | 23.7 | 27.9 | 27.3 | 27.2 | 30.0 | ||||||||||||||
Days inventory | 4.0 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 10.0 | 15.4 | ||||||||||||||
Days payable | 69.1 | 61.3 | 53.3 | 51.8 | 52.8 | ||||||||||||||
Cash cycle | -41.4 | -29.6 | -21.7 | -14.6 | -7.4 | ||||||||||||||
Source: Company data, Verdhana estimates | |||||||||||||||||||


| TLKM QoQ Results IDRbn | 4Q23 | 3Q24 | 4Q24 | Q-Q | Y-Y | YTD FY24 | YTD FY23 | Y-Y |
| Gross Op. revenue | 37,978 | 36,927 | 37,748 | 2.2 | (0.6) | 149,967 | 149,216 | 0.5 |
| Mobile - Voice | 748 | 1,664 | 1,353 | (18.7) | 80.9 | 6,260 | 8,194 | (23.6) |
| - Data and internet | 24,950 | 23,440 | 23,781 | 1.5 | (4.7) | 94,338 | 90,820 | 3.9 |
| Indihome | 7,000 | 6,654 | 6,636 | (0.3) | (5.2) | 26,262 | 28,785 | (8.8) |
| Opex | 28,044 | 26,289 | 27,739 | 5.5 | (1.1) | 107,581 | 104,300 | 3.1 |
| Depreciation | 8,582 | 8,121 | 8,393 | 3.3 | (2.2) | 32,643 | 32,663 | (0.1) |
| - | ||||||||
| Op Inc | 9,934 | 10,638 | 10,009 | (5.9) | 0.8 | 42,386 | 44,916 | (5.6) |
| Op margin | 26.2% | 28.8% | 26.5% | 28.3% | 30.1% | |||
| - | - | |||||||
| EBITDA | 18,516 | 18,759 | 18,402 | (1.9) | (0.6) | 75,029 | 77,579 | (3.3) |
| Margin | 48.8% | 50.8% | 48.7% | 50.0% | 52.0% | |||
| EBITDA Non-mobile | 5,047 | 6,427 | 6,151 | (4.3) | 21.9 | 23,692 | 25,501 | (7.1) |
| Margin | 57.4% | 72.3% | 64.0% | 64.7% | 54.4% | |||
| EBITDA Tsel | 13,469 | 12,332 | 12,251 | (0.7) | (9.0) | 51,337 | 52,078 | (1.4) |
| Margin | 46.2% | 44.0% | 43.5% | 45.3% | 50.9% | |||
| #DIV/0! | #### | - | - | |||||
| Net Profit | 5,061 | 5,914 | 5,974 | 1.0 | 18.0 | 23,649 | 24,560 | (3.7) |
| Margin | 13.3% | 16.0% | 15.8% | 15.8% | 16.5% |
| Tsel P&L IDR bn | 4Q23 | 3Q24 | 4Q24 | Q-Q | Y-Y | YTD FY24 | YTD FY23 | YoY |
| Legacy | 1,409 | 2,173 | 1,856 | (14.6) | 31.7 | 8,448 | 10,671 | (20.8) |
| Data (w VAS) | 21,145 | 19,232 | 19,518 | 1.5 | (7.7) | 78,286 | 78,473 | (0.2) |
| indihome | 6,625 | 6,638 | 6,757 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 26,606 | 13,227 | 101.1 |
| Gross Rev | 29,178 | 28,043 | 28,131 | 0.3 | (3.6) | 113,340 | 102,371 | 10.7 |
| Total opex | 21,525 | 21,212 | 21,436 | 1.1 | (0.4) | 83,883 | 72,005 | 16.5 |
| Cash opex | 15,709 | 15,711 | 15,880 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 62,003 | 50,293 | 23.3 |
| Op. profit | 7,653 | 6,831 | 6,695 | (2.0) | (12.5) | 29,457 | 30,366 | (3.0) |
| Margin | 26.2% | 24.4% | 23.8% | 26.0% | 29.7% | |||
| EBITDA | 13,469 | 12,332 | 12,251 | (0.7) | (9.0) | 51,337 | 52,078 | (1.4) |
| Margin | 46.2% | 44.0% | 43.5% | 45.3% | 50.9% | |||
| NP | 5,502 | 5,153 | 5,772 | 12.0 | 4.9 | 22,002 | 21,877 | 0.6 |

INVESTMENT RATINGS
A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general.
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| Rating Remains | Buy |
| Target price Reduced from IDR 4,100 | IDR 3,650 |
| Closing price 17 April 2025 | IDR 2,550 |
| Implied upside | +43.1% |
| Market Cap (USD mn) | 15,018.4 |
| ADT (USD mn) | 18.7 |
M cap (USDmn) | 15,018.4 |
Free float (%) | 52.1 |
3-mth ADT (USDmn) | 18.7 |
(%) | 1M | 3M | 12M |
Absolute (IDR) | 5.4 | -4.1 | -20.3 |
Absolute (USD) | 2.7 | -6.8 | -23.2 |
Rel to Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index | 5.9 | 5.9 | -10.6 |
Erwin Wijaya (erwin.wijaya@verdhana.id)
saya
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