Mayora Indah MYOR IJ Buy - Indonesia superior multinational company
MYOR is one of the biggest and fastest-growing FMCG exporters among listed firms in Indonesia
Food Beverages n Tobacco SH SC JW 1.7K 23rd Sep, 2025
Maintain Buy; TP lowered to IDR2,000
2H25F: Sales recovery
We estimate ULTJ’s sales to still decline by 2% in 3Q25F, which is a much better trajectory than the 1H25 run-rate of -9%. We attribute the sales improvement to better demand for UHT milk products, given the slight improvement in government expenditure and demand from the ‘free nutritious meal program’. We project UHT milk sales growth to hover at +5% y-y in 3Q25F. Meanwhile, ready to drink (RTD) tea remains the main sales burden, continuing to decline by 30-40% y-y in 3Q25F (impacted by a decline in government ceremonial event demand, downtrading trend, and tougher competition). We may see positive sales growth from 4Q25F, likely reaching +7% y-y as we believe that the acceleration of government expenditure is nearing year-end. All in all, we predict sales to decline -3% y-y in FY25F. Meanwhile, margins should improve substantially y-y, led by lower A&P costs; hence, we expect stronger NPAT growth y-y in 2H25F.
Double-digit earnings growth trajectory in the following years
We forecast FY26F-27F average sales growth of ~11%, backed by volumes and ASP. We assume government spending to accelerate in FY26F under the new Minister of Finance. Also, we expect to see a larger trickle-down effect of the free nutritious meal program to boost grassroots consumption next year, which may increase the consumption frequency of UHT milk. ULTJ will start operating its new factory in Nov-25, which is a good timing to anticipate higher demand; the new factory may lift production capacity by +50% gradually. ULTJ remains focused on expanding the number of general trade stores (82% of sales including outer Java). Modern trade (13% of sales) also provides upside as ULTJ's service level to Minimarkets only reaches ~70%, based on our channel checks. We also project NPAT to grow higher than sales, on the back of operating leverage.
Maintain Buy
We lower FY25F/FY26F earnings by -9%/-14% in, due to our lower sales forecasts. We reaffirm our Buy rating with a lower TP of IDR2,000 (from IDR2,250), implying 18.8x FY25F target P/E (unchanged). Currently, the stock trades at 12.3x FY25F P/E (EPS: IDR108), which we think is already the bottom; all the bad news has been priced in, while the ongoing recovery phase should provide upside to the share price. We do not see potential major sellers at the current price; the owner has been accumulating the stock recently. Downside risks include consumers’ weaker-than-expected purchasing power.
| Year-end 31 Dec | FY24 | FY25F | FY26F | FY27F | |||
| Currency (IDR) | Actual | Old | New | Old | New | Old | New |
| Revenue (bn) | 8,874 | 9,536 | 8,564 | 10,509 | 9,439 | 11,691 | 10,500 |
| Reported net profit (bn) | 1,137 | 1,236 | 1,119 | 1,518 | 1,307 | 1,826 | 1,513 |
| Normalised net profit (bn) | 1,137 | 1,236 | 1,119 | 1,518 | 1,307 | 1,826 | 1,513 |
| FD normalised EPS | 109.31 | 118.88 | 107.63 | 146.02 | 125.71 | 175.60 | 145.48 |
| FD norm. EPS growth (%) | -2.8 | 8.8 | -1.5 | 22.8 | 16.8 | 20.3 | 15.7 |
| FD normalised P/E (x) | 12.1 | – | 12.3 | – | 10.5 | – | 9.1 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 8.4 | – | 8.2 | – | 7.1 | – | 6.2 |
| Price/book (x) | 1.9 | – | 1.7 | – | 1.6 | – | 1.4 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 2.9 | – | 2.9 | – | 3.3 | – | 3.9 |
| ROE (%) | 16.3 | 16.0 | 14.6 | 17.6 | 15.5 | 18.8 | 16.3 |
| Net debt/equity (%) | net cash | net cash | net cash | net cash | net cash | net cash | net cash |
Income statement (IDRbn) | |||||||||||||||||||
Year-end 31 Dec | FY23 | FY24 | FY25F | FY26F | FY27F | ||||||||||||||
Revenue | 8,303 | 8,874 | 8,564 | 9,439 | 10,500 | ||||||||||||||
Cost of goods sold | -5,611 | -5,852 | -5,770 | -6,304 | -7,000 | ||||||||||||||
Gross profit | 2,692 | 3,022 | 2,795 | 3,135 | 3,500 | ||||||||||||||
SG&A | -1,235 | -1,623 | -1,465 | -1,613 | -1,793 | ||||||||||||||
Employee share expense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Operating profit | 1,456 | 1,399 | 1,330 | 1,522 | 1,707 | ||||||||||||||
EBITDA | 1,602 | 1,533 | 1,521 | 1,729 | 1,926 | ||||||||||||||
Depreciation | -146 | -134 | -192 | -206 | -219 | ||||||||||||||
Amortisation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
EBIT | 1,456 | 1,399 | 1,330 | 1,522 | 1,707 | ||||||||||||||
Net interest expense | 23 | 37 | 73 | 87 | 93 | ||||||||||||||
Associates & JCEs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Other income | 28 | 71 | 67 | 108 | 186 | ||||||||||||||
Earnings before tax | 1,507 | 1,507 | 1,470 | 1,717 | 1,986 | ||||||||||||||
Income tax | -321 | -353 | -344 | -402 | -465 | ||||||||||||||
Net profit after tax | 1,186 | 1,154 | 1,125 | 1,315 | 1,521 | ||||||||||||||
Minority interests | -17 | -17 | -6 | -8 | -8 | ||||||||||||||
Other items | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Preferred dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Normalised NPAT | 1,169 | 1,137 | 1,119 | 1,307 | 1,513 | ||||||||||||||
Extraordinary items | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Reported NPAT | 1,169 | 1,137 | 1,119 | 1,307 | 1,513 | ||||||||||||||
Dividends | -416 | -398 | -392 | -458 | -529 | ||||||||||||||
Transfer to reserves | 753 | 739 | 727 | 850 | 983 | ||||||||||||||
Valuations and ratios | |||||||||||||||||||
Reported P/E (x) | 11.7 | 12.1 | 12.3 | 10.5 | 9.1 | ||||||||||||||
Normalised P/E (x) | 11.7 | 12.1 | 12.3 | 10.5 | 9.1 | ||||||||||||||
FD normalised P/E (x) | 11.7 | 12.1 | 12.3 | 10.5 | 9.1 | ||||||||||||||
Dividend yield (%) | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.9 | ||||||||||||||
Price/cashflow (x) | 6.0 | 10.9 | 10.0 | 10.4 | 8.7 | ||||||||||||||
Price/book (x) | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||
EV/EBITDA (x) | 8.2 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 6.2 | ||||||||||||||
EV/EBIT (x) | 9.0 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 8.1 | 7.0 | ||||||||||||||
Gross margin (%) | 32.4 | 34.1 | 32.6 | 33.2 | 33.3 | ||||||||||||||
EBITDA margin (%) | 19.3 | 17.3 | 17.8 | 18.3 | 18.3 | ||||||||||||||
EBIT margin (%) | 17.5 | 15.8 | 15.5 | 16.1 | 16.3 | ||||||||||||||
Net margin (%) | 14.1 | 12.8 | 13.1 | 13.8 | 14.4 | ||||||||||||||
Effective tax rate (%) | 21.3 | 23.4 | 23.4 | 23.4 | 23.4 | ||||||||||||||
Dividend payout (%) | 35.6 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 35.0 | ||||||||||||||
ROE (%) | 19.0 | 16.3 | 14.6 | 15.5 | 16.3 | ||||||||||||||
ROA (pretax %) | 25.4 | 24.6 | 21.7 | 23.1 | 23.5 | ||||||||||||||
Growth (%) | |||||||||||||||||||
Revenue | 8.4 | 6.9 | -3.5 | 10.2 | 11.2 | ||||||||||||||
EBITDA | 12.4 | -4.3 | -0.7 | 13.6 | 11.4 | ||||||||||||||
Normalised EPS | 21.7 | -2.8 | -1.5 | 16.8 | 15.7 | ||||||||||||||
Normalised FDEPS | 21.7 | -2.8 | -1.5 | 16.8 | 15.7 | ||||||||||||||
Source: Company data, Verdhana estimates | |||||||||||||||||||
Cashflow statement (IDRbn) | |||||||||||||||||||
Year-end 31 Dec | FY23 | FY24 | FY25F | FY26F | FY27F | ||||||||||||||
EBITDA | 1,602 | 1,533 | 1,521 | 1,729 | 1,926 | ||||||||||||||
Change in working capital | -330 | 1,281 | 1,472 | -191 | -159 | ||||||||||||||
Other operating cashflow | 1,028 | -1,551 | -1,620 | -212 | -192 | ||||||||||||||
Cashflow from operations | 2,300 | 1,263 | 1,374 | 1,326 | 1,575 | ||||||||||||||
Capital expenditure | -232 | -248 | -559 | -532 | -548 | ||||||||||||||
Free cashflow | 2,067 | 1,014 | 815 | 794 | 1,027 | ||||||||||||||
Reduction in investments | -48 | -54 | -10 | -13 | -14 | ||||||||||||||
Net acquisitions | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Dec in other LT assets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Inc in other LT liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Adjustments | -220 | -311 | 94 | -156 | -85 | ||||||||||||||
CF after investing acts | 1,799 | 650 | 899 | 625 | 928 | ||||||||||||||
Cash dividends | -312 | -416 | -398 | -392 | -458 | ||||||||||||||
Equity issue | -63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Debt issue | -598 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Convertible debt issue | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Others | 100 | 26 | -32 | -48 | -102 | ||||||||||||||
CF from financial acts | -873 | -390 | -429 | -439 | -560 | ||||||||||||||
Net cashflow | 926 | 260 | 469 | 186 | 369 | ||||||||||||||
Beginning cash | 1,249 | 2,174 | 2,434 | 2,904 | 3,090 | ||||||||||||||
Ending cash | 2,174 | 2,434 | 2,904 | 3,090 | 3,458 | ||||||||||||||
Ending net debt | -2,173 | -2,433 | -2,902 | -3,088 | -3,456 | ||||||||||||||
Balance sheet (IDRbn) | |||||||||||||||||||
As at 31 Dec | FY23 | FY24 | FY25F | FY26F | FY27F | ||||||||||||||
Cash & equivalents | 2,174 | 2,434 | 2,904 | 3,090 | 3,458 | ||||||||||||||
Marketable securities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Accounts receivable | 767 | 912 | 866 | 943 | 1,040 | ||||||||||||||
Inventories | 1,431 | 1,390 | 1,358 | 1,465 | 1,610 | ||||||||||||||
Other current assets | 39 | 134 | 133 | 146 | 163 | ||||||||||||||
Total current assets | 4,411 | 4,870 | 5,260 | 5,643 | 6,271 | ||||||||||||||
LT investments | 329 | 383 | 393 | 406 | 420 | ||||||||||||||
Fixed assets | 2,346 | 2,461 | 2,828 | 3,154 | 3,483 | ||||||||||||||
Goodwill | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Other intangible assets | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | ||||||||||||||
Other LT assets | 429 | 739 | 645 | 801 | 886 | ||||||||||||||
Total assets | 7,524 | 8,461 | 9,136 | 10,012 | 11,069 | ||||||||||||||
Short-term debt | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | ||||||||||||||
Accounts payable | 465 | 555 | 525 | 525 | 583 | ||||||||||||||
Other current liabilities | 247 | 346 | 366 | 371 | 414 | ||||||||||||||
Total current liabilities | 713 | 903 | 892 | 898 | 1,000 | ||||||||||||||
Long-term debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Convertible debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Other LT liabilities | 124 | 132 | 151 | 177 | 208 | ||||||||||||||
Total liabilities | 837 | 1,034 | 1,043 | 1,075 | 1,207 | ||||||||||||||
Minority interest | 86 | 88 | 83 | 95 | 107 | ||||||||||||||
Preferred stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Common stock | 566 | 566 | 566 | 566 | 566 | ||||||||||||||
Retained earnings | 6,062 | 6,783 | 7,453 | 8,286 | 9,199 | ||||||||||||||
Proposed dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Other equity and reserves | -28 | -10 | -10 | -10 | -10 | ||||||||||||||
Total shareholders' equity | 6,601 | 7,339 | 8,009 | 8,842 | 9,755 | ||||||||||||||
Total equity & liabilities | 7,524 | 8,461 | 9,136 | 10,012 | 11,069 | ||||||||||||||
Liquidity (x) | |||||||||||||||||||
Current ratio | 6.18 | 5.39 | 5.90 | 6.28 | 6.27 | ||||||||||||||
Interest cover | – | – | – | – | – | ||||||||||||||
Leverage | |||||||||||||||||||
Net debt/EBITDA (x) | net cash | net cash | net cash | net cash | net cash | ||||||||||||||
Net debt/equity (%) | net cash | net cash | net cash | net cash | net cash | ||||||||||||||
Per share | |||||||||||||||||||
Reported EPS (IDR) | 112.44 | 109.31 | 107.63 | 125.71 | 145.48 | ||||||||||||||
Norm EPS (IDR) | 112.44 | 109.31 | 107.63 | 125.71 | 145.48 | ||||||||||||||
FD norm EPS (IDR) | 112.44 | 109.31 | 107.63 | 125.71 | 145.48 | ||||||||||||||
BVPS (IDR) | 634.80 | 705.81 | 770.26 | 850.36 | 938.15 | ||||||||||||||
DPS (IDR) | 40.00 | 38.26 | 37.67 | 44.00 | 50.92 | ||||||||||||||
Activity (days) | |||||||||||||||||||
Days receivable | 32.0 | 34.6 | 37.9 | 35.0 | 34.5 | ||||||||||||||
Days inventory | 100.1 | 88.2 | 86.9 | 81.7 | 80.2 | ||||||||||||||
Days payable | 35.6 | 31.9 | 34.2 | 30.4 | 28.9 | ||||||||||||||
Cash cycle | 96.6 | 90.9 | 90.6 | 86.3 | 85.7 | ||||||||||||||
Source: Company data, Verdhana estimates | |||||||||||||||||||
INVESTMENT RATINGS
A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general.
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| Rating Remains | Buy |
| Target price Reduced from IDR 2,250 | IDR 2,000 |
| Closing price 19 September 2025 | IDR 1,320 |
| Implied upside | +51.5% |
| Market Cap (USD mn) | 919.5 |
| ADT (USD mn) | 0.3 |
M cap (USDmn) | 919.5 |
Free float (%) | 24.6 |
3-mth ADT (USDmn) | 0.3 |
(%) | 1M | 3M | 12M |
Absolute (IDR) | 3.5 | 1.5 | -29.8 |
Absolute (USD) | 1.3 | 0.3 | -35.5 |
Rel to Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index | 1.1 | -14.0 | -31.6 |
Sandy Ham (sandy.ham@verdhana.id)
Samuel Christian (samuel.christian@verdhana.id)
Jody Wijaya (jody.wijaya@verdhana.id)
saya
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