Mayora Indah MYOR IJ Buy - Indonesia superior multinational company
MYOR is one of the biggest and fastest-growing FMCG exporters among listed firms in Indonesia
Food Beverages n Tobacco SH JW SC 4.3K 5th Mar, 2025
Weak RTD tea sales and higher A&P costs; maintain Buy, TP cut to IDR2,250
Higher marketing costs to sustain volume growth
ULTJ recorded high A&P-to-sales ratios of 9.2%/15.9% in 3Q24/4Q24 (vs the past-five-year average of 6.2%). Management raised A&P spending significantly in 2H24 in order to protect market share after substantial ASP hikes of 6-7% for UHT milk products in Jun-24. The company is positive that the additional promotional program may comfort customers with new prices, so that the company can stabilize volume growth in the long term.
Dairy performance helps offset sluggish ready-to-drink (RTD) tea business
ULTJ remains the market leader in UHT milk with a 36.6% share in FY24 (vs 35.9% in FY23). UHT clocked double-digit sales growth for UHT milk in 4Q24, offsetting the declining sales of its RTD tea business (Fig. 2 and 3). We appreciate the company’s ability to sustain low-to-mid-teens sales growth of UHT milk over the past five years (excluding 2020 during COVID) amid growing competition. We expect the total market value of UHT milk to continue to expand as consumers increasingly shift from sweetened condensed milk and powder milk to UHT milk. RTD tea, which contributed 17% ofFY24 sales (Fig. 5), was down 7% y-y last year, with a significant decline in 4Q24 due to competition, in our view; also, third-party sales were sluggish, dragged by the Buavita brand’s (Unilever [UNVR IJ, Reduce]) weak performance.
New factory along with lower A&P spending this year
The company will operate a new factory in 3Q25, which we believe should help boost UHT milk sales. Management also indicated to lower the A&P-to-sales ratio this year as market share remains steady. Our industry survey revealed that ULTJ’s UHT milk continued its healthy mid-to-high-single-digit growth y-y in 2M25, while the RTD tea business remains under pressure.
Maintain Buy, with a lower TP of IDR2,250 (~61% implied upside)
We lower FY25F/26F NPAT by 15.6%/11.1% owing to weaker-than-expected RTD tea performance and a higher A&P budget. We reaffirm our Buy rating with a lower TP of IDR2,250, implying a target P/E of 18.8x FY25F (unchanged, +2.2SD to its five-year mean). The stock currently trades at 11.8x FY25F P/E. A downside risk is consumers’ weaker-than-expected purchasing power.
| Year-end 31 Dec | FY24 | FY25F | FY26F | FY27F | |||
| Currency (IDR) | Actual | Old | New | Old | New | Old | New |
| Revenue (bn) | 8,874 | 9,753 | 9,536 | 10,749 | 10,509 | 0 | 11,691 |
| Reported net profit (bn) | 1,137 | 1,464 | 1,236 | 1,708 | 1,518 | 0 | 1,826 |
| Normalised net profit (bn) | 1,137 | 1,464 | 1,236 | 1,708 | 1,518 | 0 | 1,826 |
| FD normalised EPS | 109.31 | 140.84 | 118.88 | 164.27 | 146.02 | 175.60 | |
| FD norm. EPS growth (%) | -2.8 | 18.8 | 8.8 | 16.6 | 22.8 | 20.3 | |
| FD normalised P/E (x) | 12.8 | – | 11.8 | – | 9.6 | – | 8.0 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) | 9.0 | – | 8.1 | – | 6.6 | – | 5.4 |
| Price/book (x) | 2.0 | – | 1.8 | – | 1.6 | – | 1.4 |
| Dividend yield (%) | 2.7 | – | 3.0 | – | 3.7 | – | 4.4 |
| ROE (%) | 16.3 | 17.5 | 16.0 | 18.2 | 17.6 | 18.8 | |
| Net debt/equity (%) | net cash | net cash | net cash | net cash | net cash | net cash | |
Income statement (IDRbn) | |||||||||||||||||||
Year-end 31 Dec | FY23 | FY24 | FY25F | FY26F | FY27F | ||||||||||||||
Revenue | 8,303 | 8,874 | 9,536 | 10,509 | 11,691 | ||||||||||||||
Cost of goods sold | -5,611 | -5,852 | -6,424 | -7,019 | -7,698 | ||||||||||||||
Gross profit | 2,692 | 3,022 | 3,112 | 3,491 | 3,993 | ||||||||||||||
SG&A | -1,235 | -1,623 | -1,631 | -1,691 | -1,879 | ||||||||||||||
Employee share expense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Operating profit | 1,456 | 1,399 | 1,481 | 1,800 | 2,114 | ||||||||||||||
EBITDA | 1,602 | 1,533 | 1,672 | 2,007 | 2,333 | ||||||||||||||
Depreciation | -146 | -134 | -192 | -206 | -219 | ||||||||||||||
Amortisation | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
EBIT | 1,456 | 1,399 | 1,481 | 1,800 | 2,114 | ||||||||||||||
Net interest expense | 23 | 37 | 73 | 84 | 94 | ||||||||||||||
Associates & JCEs | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Other income | 28 | 71 | 70 | 111 | 190 | ||||||||||||||
Earnings before tax | 1,507 | 1,507 | 1,624 | 1,995 | 2,397 | ||||||||||||||
Income tax | -321 | -353 | -380 | -467 | -562 | ||||||||||||||
Net profit after tax | 1,186 | 1,154 | 1,243 | 1,528 | 1,836 | ||||||||||||||
Minority interests | -17 | -17 | -7 | -9 | -10 | ||||||||||||||
Other items | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Preferred dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Normalised NPAT | 1,169 | 1,137 | 1,236 | 1,518 | 1,826 | ||||||||||||||
Extraordinary items | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Reported NPAT | 1,169 | 1,137 | 1,236 | 1,518 | 1,826 | ||||||||||||||
Dividends | -416 | -398 | -433 | -531 | -639 | ||||||||||||||
Transfer to reserves | 753 | 739 | 804 | 987 | 1,187 | ||||||||||||||
Valuations and ratios | |||||||||||||||||||
Reported P/E (x) | 12.5 | 12.8 | 11.8 | 9.6 | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||
Normalised P/E (x) | 12.5 | 12.8 | 11.8 | 9.6 | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||
FD normalised P/E (x) | 12.5 | 12.8 | 11.8 | 9.6 | 8.0 | ||||||||||||||
Dividend yield (%) | 2.9 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 4.4 | ||||||||||||||
Price/cashflow (x) | 6.3 | 11.5 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 7.7 | ||||||||||||||
Price/book (x) | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.4 | ||||||||||||||
EV/EBITDA (x) | 8.8 | 9.0 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 5.4 | ||||||||||||||
EV/EBIT (x) | 9.7 | 9.9 | 9.1 | 7.3 | 6.0 | ||||||||||||||
Gross margin (%) | 32.4 | 34.1 | 32.6 | 33.2 | 34.2 | ||||||||||||||
EBITDA margin (%) | 19.3 | 17.3 | 17.5 | 19.1 | 20.0 | ||||||||||||||
EBIT margin (%) | 17.5 | 15.8 | 15.5 | 17.1 | 18.1 | ||||||||||||||
Net margin (%) | 14.1 | 12.8 | 13.0 | 14.4 | 15.6 | ||||||||||||||
Effective tax rate (%) | 21.3 | 23.4 | 23.4 | 23.4 | 23.4 | ||||||||||||||
Dividend payout (%) | 35.6 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 35.0 | 35.0 | ||||||||||||||
ROE (%) | 19.0 | 16.3 | 16.0 | 17.6 | 18.8 | ||||||||||||||
ROA (pretax %) | 25.4 | 24.6 | 23.5 | 26.0 | 27.6 | ||||||||||||||
Growth (%) | |||||||||||||||||||
Revenue | 8.4 | 6.9 | 7.5 | 10.2 | 11.2 | ||||||||||||||
EBITDA | 12.4 | -4.3 | 9.1 | 20.0 | 16.3 | ||||||||||||||
Normalised EPS | 21.7 | -2.8 | 8.8 | 22.8 | 20.3 | ||||||||||||||
Normalised FDEPS | 21.7 | -2.8 | 8.8 | 22.8 | 20.3 | ||||||||||||||
Source: Company data, Verdhana estimates | |||||||||||||||||||
Cashflow statement (IDRbn) | |||||||||||||||||||
Year-end 31 Dec | FY23 | FY24 | FY25F | FY26F | FY27F | ||||||||||||||
EBITDA | 1,602 | 1,533 | 1,672 | 2,007 | 2,333 | ||||||||||||||
Change in working capital | -330 | 1,281 | 1,303 | -205 | -155 | ||||||||||||||
Other operating cashflow | 1,028 | -1,551 | -1,654 | -279 | -286 | ||||||||||||||
Cashflow from operations | 2,300 | 1,263 | 1,322 | 1,522 | 1,892 | ||||||||||||||
Capital expenditure | -232 | -248 | -559 | -532 | -548 | ||||||||||||||
Free cashflow | 2,067 | 1,014 | 763 | 990 | 1,343 | ||||||||||||||
Reduction in investments | -48 | -54 | -10 | -13 | -14 | ||||||||||||||
Net acquisitions | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Dec in other LT assets | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Inc in other LT liabilities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Adjustments | -220 | -311 | 26 | -173 | -95 | ||||||||||||||
CF after investing acts | 1,799 | 650 | 779 | 804 | 1,235 | ||||||||||||||
Cash dividends | -312 | -416 | -398 | -433 | -531 | ||||||||||||||
Equity issue | -63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Debt issue | -598 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Convertible debt issue | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Others | 100 | 26 | -24 | -41 | -96 | ||||||||||||||
CF from financial acts | -873 | -390 | -421 | -474 | -627 | ||||||||||||||
Net cashflow | 926 | 260 | 357 | 330 | 608 | ||||||||||||||
Beginning cash | 1,249 | 2,174 | 2,434 | 2,792 | 3,122 | ||||||||||||||
Ending cash | 2,174 | 2,434 | 2,792 | 3,122 | 3,730 | ||||||||||||||
Ending net debt | -2,173 | -2,433 | -2,790 | -3,120 | -3,727 | ||||||||||||||
Balance sheet (IDRbn) | |||||||||||||||||||
As at 31 Dec | FY23 | FY24 | FY25F | FY26F | FY27F | ||||||||||||||
Cash & equivalents | 2,174 | 2,434 | 2,792 | 3,122 | 3,730 | ||||||||||||||
Marketable securities | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Accounts receivable | 767 | 912 | 964 | 1,050 | 1,158 | ||||||||||||||
Inventories | 1,431 | 1,390 | 1,512 | 1,631 | 1,771 | ||||||||||||||
Other current assets | 39 | 134 | 148 | 162 | 181 | ||||||||||||||
Total current assets | 4,411 | 4,870 | 5,415 | 5,964 | 6,840 | ||||||||||||||
LT investments | 329 | 383 | 393 | 406 | 420 | ||||||||||||||
Fixed assets | 2,346 | 2,461 | 2,828 | 3,154 | 3,483 | ||||||||||||||
Goodwill | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Other intangible assets | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | ||||||||||||||
Other LT assets | 429 | 739 | 713 | 886 | 981 | ||||||||||||||
Total assets | 7,524 | 8,461 | 9,359 | 10,420 | 11,733 | ||||||||||||||
Short-term debt | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | ||||||||||||||
Accounts payable | 465 | 555 | 584 | 585 | 641 | ||||||||||||||
Other current liabilities | 247 | 346 | 404 | 417 | 473 | ||||||||||||||
Total current liabilities | 713 | 903 | 990 | 1,004 | 1,117 | ||||||||||||||
Long-term debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Convertible debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Other LT liabilities | 124 | 132 | 152 | 178 | 210 | ||||||||||||||
Total liabilities | 837 | 1,034 | 1,142 | 1,182 | 1,326 | ||||||||||||||
Minority interest | 86 | 88 | 93 | 113 | 133 | ||||||||||||||
Preferred stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Common stock | 566 | 566 | 566 | 566 | 566 | ||||||||||||||
Retained earnings | 6,062 | 6,783 | 7,568 | 8,569 | 9,718 | ||||||||||||||
Proposed dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||||||
Other equity and reserves | -28 | -10 | -10 | -10 | -10 | ||||||||||||||
Total shareholders' equity | 6,601 | 7,339 | 8,124 | 9,125 | 10,274 | ||||||||||||||
Total equity & liabilities | 7,524 | 8,461 | 9,359 | 10,420 | 11,733 | ||||||||||||||
Liquidity (x) | |||||||||||||||||||
Current ratio | 6.18 | 5.39 | 5.47 | 5.94 | 6.13 | ||||||||||||||
Interest cover | – | – | – | – | – | ||||||||||||||
Leverage | |||||||||||||||||||
Net debt/EBITDA (x) | net cash | net cash | net cash | net cash | net cash | ||||||||||||||
Net debt/equity (%) | net cash | net cash | net cash | net cash | net cash | ||||||||||||||
Per share | |||||||||||||||||||
Reported EPS (IDR) | 112.44 | 109.31 | 118.88 | 146.02 | 175.60 | ||||||||||||||
Norm EPS (IDR) | 112.44 | 109.31 | 118.88 | 146.02 | 175.60 | ||||||||||||||
FD norm EPS (IDR) | 112.44 | 109.31 | 118.88 | 146.02 | 175.60 | ||||||||||||||
BVPS (IDR) | 634.80 | 705.81 | 781.30 | 877.54 | 988.07 | ||||||||||||||
DPS (IDR) | 40.00 | 38.26 | 41.61 | 51.11 | 61.46 | ||||||||||||||
Activity (days) | |||||||||||||||||||
Days receivable | 32.0 | 34.6 | 35.9 | 35.0 | 34.5 | ||||||||||||||
Days inventory | 100.1 | 88.2 | 82.4 | 81.7 | 80.7 | ||||||||||||||
Days payable | 35.6 | 31.9 | 32.4 | 30.4 | 29.1 | ||||||||||||||
Cash cycle | 96.6 | 90.9 | 86.0 | 86.3 | 86.0 | ||||||||||||||
Source: Company data, Verdhana estimates | |||||||||||||||||||
INVESTMENT RATINGS
A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general.
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| Rating Remains | Buy |
| Target price Reduced from IDR 2,700 | IDR 2,250 |
| Closing price 3 March 2025 | IDR 1,400 |
| Implied upside | +60.7% |
| Market Cap (USD mn) | 981.8 |
| ADT (USD mn) | 0.1 |
M cap (USDmn) | 981.8 |
Free float (%) | 24.6 |
3-mth ADT (USDmn) | 0.1 |
(%) | 1M | 3M | 12M |
Absolute (IDR) | -9.7 | -22.2 | -15.4 |
Absolute (USD) | -9.9 | -24.8 | -19.4 |
Rel to Jakarta Stock Exchange Composite Index | -2.4 | -12.8 | -4.6 |
Sandy Ham (sandy.ham@verdhana.id)
Jody Wijaya (jody.wijaya@verdhana.id)
Samuel Christian (samuel.christian@verdhana.id)
saya
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