BMRI has released its bank-only Feb-25 results. As February is the shortest month of the year, February interest income and/or expenses are typically lower (assuming there are no changes in rates) than other months. In this note, we look at BMRI’s YTD Feb-25 bank-only results, which overall demonstrates the bank’s satisfactory operating results despite still challenging macroeconomic conditions. Post the results, we reiterate our Buy rating with an unchangedTP of IDR7,600.
Bank-only Feb-25 results summary
Net interest income stood at IDR6.0tn (-8% m-m; +2% y-y) in Feb-25, with gross interest income of IDR9.3tn (-7% m-m; +11% y-y) and gross interest expenses of IDR3.3tn (-4% m-m; +32% y-y). This brings YTD Feb-25 NII to IDR12.6tn (+7% y-y). Meanwhile, PPOP slipped slightly to IDR5.4tn (-3% m-m; +5% y-y) in Feb-25, bringing YTD Feb-25 PPOP to IDR10.9tn (+4% y-y). In Feb-25, BMRI booked higher credit costs of IDR0.9tn (or 80bp vs 110bp in Feb-24). This brings YTD Feb-25 CoC to IDR1.5tn (-8% y-y), or YTD CoC of 70bp (-20bp y-y). As a result, BMRI’s implied YTD NIM and risk-adj NIM stood at 4.3% (-30bp y-y) and 3.8% (-10bp y-y) respectively. So far, we have not seen any meaningful asset yield rise despite still relatively tight liquidity in the banking system. Bank-only Feb-25 net profit reached IDR3.6tn (-11% m-m; +8% y-y), bringing YTD Feb-25 profit to IDR7.6tn (+6% y-y). Overall, the implied balance sheet ROAA stood at 2.2% in Feb-25, with balance sheet ROAE at 16.3%.
On the balance sheet, BMRI booked loan growth of +19% y-y (flat YTD) in Feb-25 while deposits grew by 17% y-y (+7% YTD), with growth coming mostly from Time Deposit (TD) +31% y-y / +18% YTD. Current Account (CA) and Savings Account (SA) also grew a respective 13% y-y (+5% YTD) and 15% y-y (+2% YTD), resulting in a CASA ratio of 78.2% and a LDR of 92.3% (vs 90.7% in Feb-24). Loan-Loss-Reserve (LLR) stood at 3.0% (-80bp y-y / +10bp YTD) in Feb-25. This suggests an improved earnings profile for the bank (i.e. it does not have to rely on a lower LLR to boost profits).
Valuation and risks
We derive our TP of IDR7,600 based on a DuPont analysis, assuming a risk-free rate of 6.5%, an equity risk premium of 7.8%, growth of 11.0%, beta 1.05x and a CAR-adjusted ROAE of 19.5%. We also use 2025F book as reference. The implied multiples at our TP are 2.3x 2025F book and 12.4x 2025F earnings (compared to current multiples of 2.5x and 13.7x, respectively). Key risks to our view are worsening macroeconomic trends, unfavorable regulatory changes, tighter liquidity competition (which would increase funding costs), worsening credit quality (which would raise credit costs), and higher opex.
Fig. 1: BMRI YTD Y-Y Performance %
Source: Company data, Verdhana research
Fig. 2: BMRI monthly results
BMRI Monthly IDRbn
Feb-24
Dec-24
Jan-25
Feb-25
M-M
Y-Y
YTD-25
YTD-24
Y-Y
Gross interest income
8,410
10,608
10,000
9,332
-7%
11%
19,333
17,160
13%
Gross interest expense
2,511
3,329
3,456
3,324
-4%
32%
6,780
5,385
26%
Net interest income
5,898
7,279
6,545
6,008
-8%
2%
12,552
11,775
7%
PPOP
5,130
4,900
5,522
5,366
-3%
5%
10,888
10,478
4%
Provision exp
1,014
(32)
568
906
59%
-11%
1,474
1,609
-8%
Net profit
3,324
3,963
4,005
3,583
-11%
8%
7,588
7,158
6%
Comprehensive profit
3,224
3,556
4,540
3,934
-13%
22%
8,474
7,172
18%
MoM loan growth
0.2%
2.1%
-0.3%
0.0%
MoM deposit growth
-0.1%
-2.9%
5.1%
1.4%
YTD loan growth
1.2%
20.7%
-0.3%
-0.2%
YTD deposit growth
-2.7%
6.8%
5.1%
6.6%
YoY loan growth
19.4%
20.7%
19.3%
19.1%
YoY deposit growth
5.8%
6.8%
15.1%
17.0%
LDR
90.7%
98.6%
93.6%
92.3%
COF %
2.2%
2.6%
2.6%
2.5%
2.6%
2.3%
NIM (annualised)
4.6%
5.1%
4.5%
4.0%
4.3%
4.6%
Risk-adj NIM
3.8%
5.1%
4.1%
3.4%
3.8%
3.9%
LLR
3.8%
2.9%
2.9%
3.0%
CoC (annualised)
1.1%
0.0%
0.5%
0.8%
0.7%
0.9%
CASA ratio
80.6%
80.3%
79.3%
78.2%
Monthly CIR
35.1%
52.3%
39.3%
36.3%
B/S ROAE (annualised)
16.4%
18.6%
18.5%
16.3%
B/S ROAA (annualised)
2.4%
2.6%
2.5%
2.2%
CASA growth yoy
9.2%
8.0%
14.5%
13.5%
Credit costs
1.1%
0.0%
0.5%
0.8%
Loan-to-CASA
112.7
123.0
118.3
118.2
Source: Company data, Verdhana research
Fig. 3: BMRI balance sheet
BMRI B/S IDRbn
Feb-24
Dec-24
Jan-25
Feb-25
M-M
Y-Y
YTD-25
YTD-24
Total assets IDRbn
1,664,977
1,877,322
1,923,399
1,937,462
1%
16%
3%
-1%
Gross Loans IDRbn
1,098,373
1,310,779
1,307,185
1,307,643
0%
19%
0%
1%
LLR IDRbn
41,300
38,258
38,497
39,061
1%
-5%
2%
-2%
Net loans IDRbn
1,057,073
1,272,522
1,268,687
1,268,582
0%
20%
0%
1%
Deposits
1,209,149
1,326,888
1,394,402
1,414,412
1%
17%
7%
-3%
- CA IDRbn
514,441
551,034
588,706
579,117
-2%
13%
5%
-3%
- SA IDRbn
460,350
514,539
516,708
527,289
2%
15%
2%
1%
- TD IDRbn
234,358
261,315
288,988
308,006
7%
31%
18%
-8%
CASA IDRbn
974,791
1,065,573
1,105,414
1,106,406
0%
14%
4%
-1%
Equities IDRbn
245,580
257,126
261,666
265,600
2%
8%
3%
3%
Source: Company data, Verdhana research
Fig. 4: BMRI margin %
Source: Company data, Verdhana research
Fig. 5: BMRI LLR vs 12MMA write off %
Source: Company data, Verdhana research
Fig. 6: BMRI 12MMA CoC vs 12MMA write off %
Source: Company data, Verdhana research
INVESTMENT RATINGS A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general.
GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER This report is prepared by PT Verdhana Sekuritas Indonesia (“PTVSI”) a securities company registered in Indonesia, supervised by Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK) and a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).
This report is intended for client of PTVSI only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of PTVSI.
The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but PTVSI do not make any representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. The information in this report is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or condensed and it may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report. Any information, valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or targets herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report is published, and there is no assurance that future results or events will be consistent.
This report is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or financial products. PTVSI and its associates, its directors, and/or its employees may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in this report or it may or will engage in any securities transaction or other capital market services for the company (companies) mentioned herein.
ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report and certifies that the views about the companies including their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
RESTRICTIONS ON DISTRIBUTION
By accepting this report, the recipient hereof represents and warrants that you are entitled to receive such report in accordance with the restrictions and agrees to be bound by the limitations contained herein. Neither this report nor any copy hereof may be distributed except in compliance with applicable Indonesian capital market laws and regulations.
