The wholesales of 4W market in 10M24 remained weak, with sales volume down 15% yoy to 710k units. Overall, total wholesale value contracted 10.6% yoy to IDR261tn. However, a relatively bright spot was in 2W sales, which rose 2.9% yoy to 5.87mn units, and soaring EV sales, which rose 170% yoy to 31.8k units and registered a penetration rate of 4.5%. October recorded the highest monthly wholesales in 2024, marking a positive inflection point. Key beneficiaries include Astra (ASSA IJ, Buy), Astra Otopars (AUTO IJ, Buy), Dharma Polimetal (DRMA IJ, Buy), and Mitra Pinasthika Mustika (MPMX IJ, Buy), given the resilient 2W demand, growth in the used car market, and EV expansion.
4W sales – EVs take the lead
The 4W market in 10M24 remained weak, with wholesale value declining 10.6% yoy to IDR 261tn, underpinned by a 15% yoy decline in volume to 710k units and a 15% yoy drop in ASP to IDR368mn. These trends reflect weak purchasing power and an increasing preference for used vehicles. Astra's market was relatively stable at 57% in October, vs 56% in October 2023, on the strength of Toyota (7203 JP, Neutral), Daihatsu (6023 JP, Not rated), and Isuzu (7202 JT, Not rated). Non-Astra brands such as Mitsubishi (8058 JP, Buy), Honda (7267 JP, Buy), and Suzuki (7269 JP, Buy) recorded more significant declines. On the other hand, EV sales expanded 170% yoy to 31.8k units, reaching a penetration of 4.5% in 10M24, driven by government incentives, decreased ASPs and improved model availability. EV ASP fell to IDR445mn, further improving affordability. BYD (1211 HK, Buy) remained the market leader with a 54% market share in the EV market, mainly driven by its M6 model followed by Wuling (305 HK, Not rated) at 23%.
2W market – relatively strong market due to downtrading?
The 2W market expanded by 2.9% yoy to 5.87mn units in 10M24, underpinned by a 3.6% yoy rise in domestic sales, while exports declined 4.8%. In October, sales jumped to 544k units, up 3% mom, on the back of strong demand for premium motorcycles as consumers transitioned from low-cost-green-cars (LCGC) to upscale 2Ws, further bolstering market resilience. Sales of lower-end 2Ws continued to be soft, reflecting affordability issues among low-income buyers
Key potential beneficiaries: ASSA IJ, AUTO IJ, DRMA IJ, and MPMX IJ
Some companies are in a strategic position, benefiting from the shifting market.
●Downtrading and aftermarket:
oASSA IJ: In our view, it should benefit from increased activity in the used car market as consumers shift from new to second-hand vehicles.
oAUTO IJ: We believe it is poised for growth in demand for spare parts due to the increase in maintenance for aging vehicles.
●EV market momentum:
oDRMA IJ: We believe it will utilize its EV component manufacturing capabilities in this rapidly growing market segment.
●Premiumization and 2W growth:
oMPMX IJ: We expect it to capture the ongoing demand for high-end motorcycles and should have stable 2W sales.
Fig. 1: 10M24- Total value, wholesales, and ASP. Auto market declined by -10% predominantly due to lower volume. Price also relatively stagnated
Source: Gaikindo, Verdhana research
Fig. 2: 4W/2W wholesales and growth %
Source: Company data, Verdhana research
Fig. 3: 4W wholesales
4W wholesales (k)
Sep-23
Oct-23
Sep-24
Oct-24
mom%
yoy%
10M23
10M24
yoy%
Wholesales
80
80
73
77
6.2%
-3.9%
836
710
-15%
Astra
44
44
40
44
8.7%
-1.9%
466
401
-14%
Toyota
26
27
25
27
6.2%
-1.5%
274
235
-14%
Daihatsu
15
14
13
14
11%
0.0%
162
140
-13%
Isuzu
2.7
2.5
1.7
2.1
26%
-17%
27
22
-17%
Others
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.4
23%
-7.1%
3.7
4.0
6.7%
Ex-Astra
36
36
33
34
3.1%
-6.4%
370
309
-17%
Mitsubishi
8.4
8.2
8.2
7.9
-3.2%
-3.3%
91
82
-9.3%
Honda
11
12
7.9
8.6
8.9%
-28%
120
78
-35%
Suzuki
6.5
6.0
5.2
5.5
5.9%
-8.3%
67
54
-18%
Wuling
2.0
2.2
2.0
2.2
10%
1.4%
17
16
-3.2%
Hyundai
3.1
3.0
1.6
1.7
7.2%
-44%
30
19
-36%
Neta
-
-
0.1
-
na.
na.
-
0.5
na.
MG
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.2
-41%
na.
1.0
3.7
na.
Chery
0.5
0.4
0.7
0.7
3.9%
95%
3.6
6.9
91%
Citroen
-
-
0.1
0.1
-3.3%
na.
-
1.1
na.
BYD
-
-
2.1
2.5
20%
na.
-
11.0
na.
Others
4.3
4.2
4.3
4.1
-4.4%
-1.1%
42
36
-15%
Domestic mkt share %
Sep-23
Oct-23
Sep-24
Oct-24
10M23
10M24
Astra
55%
55%
55%
56%
56%
57%
Toyota
32%
34%
35%
35%
33%
33%
Daihatsu
19%
18%
17%
18%
19%
20%
Isuzu
3.4%
3.1%
2.3%
2.7%
3.2%
3.1%
Others
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.5%
0.4%
0.6%
Ex-Astra
45%
45%
45%
44%
44%
43%
Mitsubishi
10.5%
10.2%
11%
10%
11%
12%
Honda
14%
15%
11%
11%
14%
11%
Suzuki
8.1%
7.5%
7.1%
7.1%
8.0%
7.7%
Wuling
2.5%
2.7%
2.8%
2.9%
2.0%
2.3%
Hyundai
3.9%
3.8%
2.2%
2.2%
3.5%
2.7%
Neta
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
MG
0.2%
0.1%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
0.5%
Chery
0.6%
0.4%
0.9%
0.9%
0.4%
1.0%
Citroen
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
BYD
0.0%
0.0%
2.9%
3.2%
0.0%
1.6%
Others
5.4%
5.2%
5.9%
5.3%
5.1%
5.1%
Source: Gaikindo, Verdhana research
Fig. 4: 4W retail sales
4W retail sales (RS, k)
Sep-23
Oct-23
Sep-24
Oct-24
mom%
yoy%
10M23
10M24
yoy%
Retail sales
81
79
72
73
1%
-8%
826
731
-12%
Astra
45
46
41
41
0%
-11%
459
413
-10%
Toyota + Lexus
27
28
26
25
-3%
-11%
265
242
-8.7%
Daihatsu
15
15
12
13
5%
-11%
164
143
-13%
Isuzu
2.7
2.7
2.2
2.4
13%
-11%
26.2
23.3
-11%
Others
0.3
0.4
0.4
0.4
9%
9%
3.5
4.0
14%
Ex-Astra
36
34
32
33
3%
-3%
366
318
-13%
Mitsubishi
9
8
8.3
8.1
-2%
2%
96
80
-17%
Honda
10
10
7.6
8.0
6%
-16%
107
84
-22%
Suzuki
6.3
6.7
5.1
5.3
4%
-21%
68
56
-17%
Wuling
2.3
2.0
2.0
2.1
3%
5%
20.4
19.8
-2.9%
Hyundai
3.1
2.8
1.5
1.5
-3%
-48%
29.6
18.9
-36%
Neta
-
-
0.1
-
-100%
na.
-
0.4
na.
MG
0.1
0.1
0.4
0.3
-34%
462%
0.9
3.7
293%
Chery
0.4
0.3
0.6
0.7
21%
121%
3.4
6.7
96%
Citroen
-
-
0.1
0.1
-3%
na.
-
0.7
na.
BYD
-
-
1.8
2.6
45%
na.
-
8.8
na.
Others
4.5
4.2
4.2
3.9
-7.2%
-7.5%
42
39
-6%
Retail mkt share %
Sep-23
Oct-23
Sep-24
Oct-24
10M23
10M24
Astra
56%
58%
56%
56%
56%
56%
Toyota
33%
35%
35%
34%
32%
33%
Daihatsu
19%
18%
17%
18%
20%
20%
Isuzu
3.3%
3.5%
3.0%
3.3%
3.2%
3.2%
Others
0.4%
0.5%
0.5%
0.6%
0.4%
0.5%
Ex-Astra
44%
42%
44%
44%
44%
44%
Mitsubishi
11.2%
10.0%
12%
11%
12%
11%
Honda
13%
12%
11%
11%
13%
11%
Suzuki
7.8%
8.5%
7.1%
7.3%
8.2%
7.7%
Wuling
2.9%
2.5%
2.8%
2.8%
2.5%
2.7%
Hyundai
3.8%
3.5%
2.1%
2.0%
3.6%
2.6%
Neta
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
MG
0.2%
0.1%
0.6%
0.4%
0.1%
0.5%
Chery
0.5%
0.4%
0.8%
1.0%
0.4%
0.9%
Citroen
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
0.2%
0.0%
0.1%
BYD
0.0%
0.0%
2.5%
3.5%
0.0%
1.2%
Others
5.5%
5.3%
5.8%
5.3%
5.0%
5.4%
Source: Gaikindo, Verdhana research
Fig. 5: 4W retail sales, market share (%), and trends
Source: Gaikindo, Verdhana research
Fig. 6: 2W sales
Source: AISI, Verdhana research
Fig. 7: EV sales surge as ASP drops: Affordable models drive adoption
Source: Verdhana research
Fig. 8: EV monthly and annual sales – strong growth trend
Source: Gaikindo, Verdhana research
Fig. 9: EV brands market share – BYD maintaining its leading position
Source: Gaikindo, Verdhana research
Fig. 10: EV market share by model – M6 gained strong traction
Source: Gaikindo, Verdhana research
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