We introduce the Nusantara Series, an in-depth market research that leverages our surveys and channel checks across Indonesia. Given the country’s size and diversity, understanding consumer feedback from multiple backgrounds is essential to comprehensively evaluate product and service quality.
This first series explores the fast-growing electric bicycle (e-bike) market and gathers user experience from consumers. E-bikes are defined as conventional bicycle that is equipped with an electric motor and battery.
Survey results: e-bike user experience and improvement
Overall, we found that consumers are generally satisfied with e-bikes. Not only is the initial purchase price affordable, but the maintenance and operating costs are also low. Most consumers use their e-bikes frequently (more than twice a week) for short trips (under 10km). They also feel safe riding e-bikes and are likely to recommend them to friends and colleagues. A key improvement from the respondents include increasing battery capacity that would enhance usability and support future market growth.
We estimate that there are currently around 3mn e-bike users across Indonesia. Our analysis is based on responses from 606 participants across seven cities, with an estimated margin of error of +/- 4%.
Explosive growth of the e-bike market
Our channel checks reveal rapid growth in e-bike sales, from 0.5mn units in 2022 to a projected 2.5mn units in 2024F. Key drivers for this surge include: 1) affordability: e-bikes are priced at USD200-300 compared to USD1,500 for conventional motorcycles, 2) lower operating costs: e-bikes eliminate expenses like fuel and taxes, and 3) dealer network expansion: aggressive dealership growth has boosted market penetration.
We believe e-bikes pose a potential risk to the conventional motorcycle segment, especially for users relying on 2Ws for short-distance needs. As some consumers primarily require transportation for local errands, such as buying groceries or taking children to school, e-bikes present an attractive alternative.
Phenomenon of downtrading
Our recent report (see here and here) suggests there’s a sign of downtrading in Indonesia. Indeed, we view the mid-low car segment buyers experienced downtrading given the rejection of credit applications. This resulted in 2W sales to increase — as consumers opted for high-end segment motorcycles rather than the 4Ws. According to our channel checks, there’s also downtrading in low-end motorcycles to electric bicycles.
Currently, stocks that have exposure to the e-bike market includes some smallcaps like UNTD IJ (Not rated), BIKE IJ (Not rated) and SLIS IJ (Not rated).
However, as the theme for the overall autos sector in Indonesia is downtrading, we also present our preferred stock picks (all rated Buy):
ASSA IJ (proxy of ASLC IJ [Not rated]): Poised to gain from the growing secondhand car market, where more consumers are shifting to purchase used vehicles.
AUTO IJ: Likely to benefit from higher demand for replacement spare parts, driven by the maintenance needs of used cars; hence, it will add more heft to its trading segment.
MPMX IJ: Could benefit from steady demand for motorcycles and further supported by good dividend potential as the leading motorcycle retailer in Indonesia.
DRMA IJ: Interesting case, as the brand has been visibly gaining market share in both 2W and 4W segments, along with the ongoing market dynamics.
Nusantara — channel checks (survey)
We conducted surveys across Indonesia to get 606 respondents with regard to their experience in using e-bikes. Below are the takeaways: more than 90% of respondents are either from Java or Jakarta, and 62% of respondents are women, where most of the respondents are concentrated under 34 years old. Regarding their income level, around 90% of them earn below USD385 per month.
Fig. 1: E-bike pictures from some respondents across Indonesia
Source: Verdhana research
Fig. 2: Respondents' demographic — by location
Source: Verdhana research
Fig. 3: Respondents' demographic — by occupation, sex, age, and income per month
Source: Verdhana research
We view affordability as the key factor for e-bike. Around 70% of the respondents bought e-bikes with prices less than USD250. In terms of payment, cash buyers amount to 71%, while credit/installment buyers amount to 29%. The above results therefore indicate that affordability is an important criterion, coupled with a desire for full payment.
Fig. 4: Financial aspect (price, payment method)
Source: Verdhana research
Most of them used e-bikes for simple usage such as shopping and visiting with friends and family at 44%, and commutes to work or school came in at 32%.
In terms of usage, 28% of respondents take their e-bikes daily, with another 48% using them 2-4 times a week. Most users travel short distances: 50% travel less than 5km per ride and 46% of them use up to 2-4 hours to charge the battery.
More interestingly, 67% would recommend e-bikes to others, which simply depicts the satisfaction level of people with the product.
Fig. 5: Usage and behavior of respondents
Source: Verdhana research
55% of the respondents agree that e-bikes help reduce pollution while 43% of them strongly agree. For maintenance costs, 66% of users find e-bikes maintenance affordable, while 27% find it very affordable, though only 6.8% report it as expensive. This ascertains that environmental protection and cost efficiency are two major reasons for e-bike adoption
Fig. 6: Environmental impact and cost efficiency
Source: Verdhana research
Nearly 60% reported some cost savings from using an e-bike, and another 35% reported major cost savings. Satisfaction remains very high with 70% of the respondents said they are satisfied, and 67% reported that they would recommend e-bikes to others. E-bike maintenance is largely seen as convenient, with 68% of users finding it easy to handle.
Fig. 7: User experience and satisfaction
Source: Verdhana research
Battery durability is rated positively: 63% of respondents find it “as expected”, and 28% consider that this aspect exceeds expectations. Ease of use is one of the major strengths: 54% of users consider e-bikes “very easy” to use, while another 44% rate them as “easy”. Regarding safety, 68% of the respondents feel safe riding an e-bike, while 57% report being comfortable during use-reinforcing strong overall user satisfaction.
Fig. 8: User experience and satisfaction
Source: Verdhana research
Other prominent complaints mentioned by e-bike users were a short battery life at 37%, limited charging stations at 26%, and bad road condition complaints at 16%. Safety-related complaints were at 11%. Regarding suggestions for improvement, 20% suggested increasing the battery life and 14% suggested increasing the charging station. Despite this, overall, 28% expressed satisfaction with their e-bike experience.
Fig. 9: Challenges faced and improvements needed by respondents
Source: Verdhana research
Fig. 10: Annual sales — vehicles in Indonesia. 4W downtrading to 2W, and 2W low-end segment
Source: Gaikindo, AISI, Verdhana estimates
Fig. 11: Sales weather forecast for all vehicles types — a sign of downtrading
Source: Verdhana research
Fig. 12: Two-wheeler comparison
Source: Verdhana research
Fig. 13: Two-wheeler comparison: motorcycle, electric motorcycle, e-bikes
Conventional motorcycle
Electric motorcycle
Electric bicycle
Price range USD
1,200 - 2,000
1,200 - 2,500
200 - 500
Range/full capacity (km)
135 - 320
50 - 150
40 - 80
Top speed (km/h)
120 - 130
80 - 100
40 - 50
Refuel/recharge time
5 minutes
4 - 6 hours
4 - 6 hours
License plate & documents
Yes
Yes
No
Driver's license
Yes
Yes
No
Vehicle weight (kg)
90 - 130
70 - 150
50 - 70
Maximum carry (kg)
120 - 180
120 - 180
120 - 150
Source: Verdhana research
Fig. 14: E-bike addressable market as of 2W market %
Source: Verdhana estimates
Fig. 15: E-bike market: sales volume, ASP & market value
Source: Verdhana research
Fig. 16: Indonesia 2W market: volume, ASP & market value
Source: AISI, Verdhana research
INVESTMENT RATINGS A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general.
GENERAL DISCLOSURE/DISCLAIMER This report is prepared by PT Verdhana Sekuritas Indonesia (“PTVSI”) a securities company registered in Indonesia, supervised by Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK) and a member of the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).
This report is intended for client of PTVSI only and no part of this document may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form or by any means or (ii) redistributed without the prior written consent of PTVSI.
The research set out in this report is based on information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but PTVSI do not make any representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. The information in this report is subject to change without notice, its accuracy is not guaranteed, it may be incomplete or condensed and it may not contain all material information concerning the company (or companies) referred to in this report. Any information, valuations, opinions, estimates, forecasts, ratings or targets herein constitutes a judgment as of the date of this report is published, and there is no assurance that future results or events will be consistent.
This report is not to be construed as an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or financial products. PTVSI and its associates, its directors, and/or its employees may from time to time have interests in the securities mentioned in this report or it may or will engage in any securities transaction or other capital market services for the company (companies) mentioned herein.
ANALYST CERTIFICATION The research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this report and certifies that the views about the companies including their securities expressed in this report accurately reflect his/her personal views. The analyst also certifies that no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be, directly, or indirectly, related to specific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
RESTRICTIONS ON DISTRIBUTION
By accepting this report, the recipient hereof represents and warrants that you are entitled to receive such report in accordance with the restrictions and agrees to be bound by the limitations contained herein. Neither this report nor any copy hereof may be distributed except in compliance with applicable Indonesian capital market laws and regulations.
