We compile Indonesia equities’ 9M24 results and provide a bottom-up assessment of which ones were above/in-line/below Bloomberg consensus estimates. Indeed, our consolidated calculations suggest that 9M24 revenue growth was +5% y-y. Consolidated profit, however, only grew +2% y-y. We continue to favor FMCGs as our sector top pick given solid revenues and net profit growth. For other sectors, we prefer to analyze through the bottom-up appraisal and see how they’ve performed to find value picks.
Revenue and profit recap — margin squeeze/fighting for market share?
Revenues: Sectors that have the highest revenue growth include FMCGs (excluding UNVR IJ [Reduce]), retailers, hospitals, and logistics.
Net profit: Sectors that deliver strong net profit growth include FMCGs, logistics, retailers, and properties. We view that the reason why net profit growth wasn’t as strong as revenue growth is due to companies experiencing margin squeeze or sacrificing margins to win market share.
Given the weak purchasing power in the country, we do not rule out the possibility of a government stimulus for the mid- and low-income segment and thus could provide a potential upside for FMCGs.
Outlook — still weak purchasing power
We view the purchasing power in Indonesia as still weak — and thus may need a booster from the government. Indeed, Indonesia GDP growth in the 3Q24 at 4.95% was below consensus and — lowest since 3Q23 and below the psychological level of 5%.
Stock pick — picking winners
As discussed in our previous anchor report pulse check, we evaluate the country’s purchasing power and conclude that there are areas of both stability and vulnerability. As such, from a stock-picking perspective, we continue to favor winners from each sector through a bottom-up analysis. Our top picks among large caps such as BBCA, AMRT, MYOR, ICBP, HEAL, NCKL (all rated Buy), while for small-mid caps we favor CLEO, ASSA, MIDI (all rated Buy).
Fig. 3: Revenue – per companies and remarks (1 of 2)
Revenue IDR bn
2Q23
3Q23
2Q24
3Q24
QoQ
YoY
9M23
9M24
YoY
Remarks
BBCA
23,372
25,051
26,270
27,849
6%
11%
73,394
80,521
10%
In-line
BBRI
40,718
42,931
41,885
44,704
7%
4%
123,924
131,338
6%
Above
BMRI
34,694
35,203
37,168
37,126
0%
5%
102,499
109,349
7%
In-line
BBNI
13,955
14,218
13,537
16,279
20%
14%
41,874
43,123
3%
Below
BTPS
1,325
1,350
1,239
1,219
-2%
-10%
3,949
3,709
-6%
Below
PNBN
2,655
2,350
2,780
2,880
4%
23%
7,634
8,318
9%
Below
BDMN
4,677
4,833
5,047
5,610
11%
16%
14,227
15,624
10%
In-line
BNGA
5,009
4,485
4,453
4,800
8%
7%
14,481
14,067
-3%
In-line
BTPN
3,483
3,486
4,819
5,324
10%
53%
10,318
13,578
32%
In-line
ARTO
473
419
434
447
3%
7%
1,343
1,284
-4%
Below
BRIS
4,760
4,861
5,192
5,838
12%
20%
14,401
16,117
12%
In-line
Banks
135,122
139,187
142,823
152,076
6%
9%
408,043
437,028
7%
TLKM
37,388
37,760
37,863
36,927
-2%
-2%
111,238
112,219
1%
In-line
ISAT
12,730
12,788
14,141
13,836
-2%
8%
37,462
41,812
12%
In-line
TOWR
2,912
2,943
3,107
3,295
6%
12%
8,719
9,449
8%
In-line
TBIG
1,662
1,673
1,710
1,713
0%
2%
4,953
5,127
4%
In-line
MTEL
2,074
2,143
2,244
2,368
6%
10%
6,273
6,818
9%
In-line
TMT
56,766
57,307
59,065
58,139
-2%
1%
168,646
175,425
4%
ASII
79,413
78,520
78,758
86,362
10%
10%
240,913
246,329
2%
In-line
DRMA
1,298
1,505
1,220
1,467
20%
-3%
4,245
4,022
-5%
In-line
MPMX
3,309
3,413
3,806
4,153
9%
22%
10,508
11,842
13%
Above
SMSM
1,200
1,285
1,194
1,468
23%
14%
3,764
3,818
1%
In-line
AUTO
4,409
4,702
4,597
4,972
8%
6%
14,085
14,167
1%
In-line
BIRD
1,046
1,137
1,207
1,336
11%
17%
3,229
3,664
13%
In-line
WINS
230
310
326
351
8%
13%
777
969
25%
In-line
Auto and Transport
90,905
90,872
91,108
100,109
10%
10%
277,522
284,811
3%
UNVR
9,687
10,214
8,964
8,373
-7%
-18%
30,506
27,417
-10%
Below
MYOR
6,367
8,075
7,462
9,416
26%
17%
22,894
25,639
12%
In-line
MLBI
761
769
728
937
29%
22%
2,270
2,326
2%
In-line
KLBF
7,310
7,382
7,965
7,910
-1%
7%
22,561
24,238
7%
In-line
INDF
25,544
27,802
26,505
29,647
12%
7%
83,888
86,944
4%
In-line
ICBP
15,335
16,829
17,039
18,525
9%
10%
51,307
55,486
8%
In-line
SIDO
746
708
843
730
-13%
3%
2,361
2,627
11%
In-line
ROTI
883
1,014
972
1,051
8%
4%
2,837
2,975
5%
Below
ULTJ
1,906
1,979
2,147
2,138
0%
8%
6,118
6,583
8%
In-line
CMRY
1,947
1,964
2,247
2,221
-1%
13%
5,742
6,637
16%
In-line
CLEO
520
528
670
681
2%
29%
1,504
1,978
32%
In-line
KEJU
212
256
268
332
24%
29%
732
939
28%
Above
FMCGs
61,531
67,304
66,847
73,590
10%
9%
202,215
216,372
7%
ACES
1,933
1,859
2,067
2,056
-1%
11%
5,494
6,116
11%
In-line
AMRT
27,667
26,191
29,894
28,998
-3%
11%
80,025
88,217
10%
In-line
RALS
1,080
476
837
448
-46%
-6%
2,140
2,114
-1%
Below
MAPI
8,132
8,198
9,205
9,623
5%
17%
23,792
27,616
16%
In-line
MAPA
3,246
3,614
4,194
4,533
8%
25%
9,584
12,420
30%
In-line
LPPF
2,408
1,128
1,780
1,164
-35%
3%
4,980
4,917
-1%
In-line
MIDI
4,608
4,276
4,991
4,902
-2%
15%
12,924
14,686
14%
In-line
ERAA
14,104
13,919
16,467
15,491
-6%
11%
42,816
48,608
14%
In-line
Retailers
63,179
59,660
69,433
67,215
-3%
13%
181,755
204,693
13%
GGRM
26,120
25,897
23,754
23,875
1%
-8%
81,749
73,893
-10%
In-line
WIIM
1,209
1,339
1,163
1,210
4%
-10%
3,720
3,431
-8%
Below
HMSP
29,189
31,142
28,710
30,651
7%
-2%
87,297
88,468
1%
In-line
Cigarettes
56,518
58,379
53,627
55,736
4%
-5%
172,765
165,792
-4%
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Verdhana research
Fig. 4: Revenue – per companies and remarks (2 of 2)
Revenue IDR bn
2Q23
3Q23
2Q24
3Q24
QoQ
YoY
9M23
9M24
YoY
Remarks
MIKA
1,021
1,108
1,209
1,166
-4%
5%
3,157
3,619
15%
In-line
SILO
2,628
2,964
2,990
3,107
4%
5%
8,246
9,123
11%
In-line
HEAL
1,339
1,538
1,638
1,682
3%
9%
4,230
5,027
19%
In-line
PRDA
545
549
545
566
4%
3%
1,612
1,598
-1%
Below
Healthcare
5,533
6,160
6,382
6,522
2%
6%
17,245
19,367
12%
BSDE
2,122
2,310
3,572
2,720
-24%
18%
7,308
10,067
38%
In-line
CTRA
2,339
2,120
2,721
2,080
-24%
-2%
6,589
7,117
8%
In-line
PWON
1,512
1,673
1,731
1,525
-12%
-9%
4,569
4,786
5%
Below
Properties
5,973
6,103
8,024
6,325
-21%
4%
18,467
21,970
19%
HRUM
2,965
2,321
5,415
5,655
4%
144%
9,702
15,287
58%
In-line
ADRO
24,599
23,211
24,069
22,390
-7%
-4%
75,379
69,335
-8%
Below
PTBA
8,901
8,879
10,233
11,013
8%
24%
27,738
30,656
11%
Above
ITMG
9,200
8,152
9,175
9,175
0%
13%
27,632
26,106
-6%
Below
INDY
11,490
9,667
10,306
8,894
-14%
-8%
34,756
28,196
-19%
Above
ADMR
3,379
3,972
5,445
3,542
-35%
-11%
10,924
13,340
22%
In-line
Coal
60,534
56,202
64,644
60,669
-6%
8%
186,130
182,919
-2%
INCO
4,435
4,311
4,194
3,482
-17%
-19%
14,191
11,322
-20%
In-line
ANTM
10,068
9,238
14,569
20,012
37%
117%
30,899
43,201
40%
In-line
Metals
14,502
13,549
18,763
23,494
25%
73%
45,090
54,523
21%
ESSA
1,204
996
1,274
1,189
-7%
19%
3,518
3,633
3%
Below
MEDC
8,368
8,556
9,579
9,720
1%
14%
25,292
28,121
11%
Above
AKRA
8,896
10,123
8,839
9,962
13%
-2%
29,977
28,612
-5%
In-line
ELSA
2,717
3,122
3,210
3,335
4%
7%
8,983
9,652
7%
In-line
O&G
21,185
22,797
22,902
24,205
6%
6%
67,770
70,018
3%
ARNA
566
616
589
700
19%
14%
1,842
1,922
4%
In-line
AVIA
1,726
1,656
1,716
1,784
4%
8%
5,164
5,405
5%
In-line
IMPC
646
697
690
981
42%
41%
2,087
2,415
16%
In-line
SMGR
8,097
10,629
8,036
9,884
23%
-7%
27,661
26,295
-5%
In-line
INTP
3,724
4,958
4,041
5,196
29%
5%
12,928
13,320
3%
In-line
Building Mat
14,759
18,555
15,072
18,546
23%
0%
49,681
49,357
-1%
ASSA
1,243
1,071
1,186
1,274
7%
19%
3,460
3,641
5%
Above
ASLC
156
165
198
236
19%
44%
453
618
36%
Above
Logistics
1,398
1,236
1,385
1,510
9%
22%
3,914
4,260
9%
JSMR
4,478
5,157
7,023
7,294
4%
41%
14,081
20,366
45%
In-line
Infra
4,478
5,157
7,023
7,294
4%
41%
14,081
20,366
45%
JPFA
12,394
13,612
13,723
13,631
-1%
0%
37,767
41,280
9%
In-line
CPIN
16,328
16,237
17,049
16,757
-2%
3%
47,129
49,719
5%
In-line
Poultry
28,722
29,848
30,772
30,388
-1%
2%
84,896
90,999
7%
TAPG
1,847
2,266
2,165
2,166
0%
-4%
6,039
6,242
3%
In-line
LSIP
980
1,039
921
1,123
22%
8%
2,923
2,924
0%
In-line
AALI
4,630
6,291
5,513
5,974
8%
-5%
15,682
16,287
4%
In-line
DSNG
2,291
2,207
2,473
2,469
0%
12%
6,564
7,172
9%
In-line
CPO
9,747
11,803
11,072
11,731
6%
-1%
31,208
32,626
5%
Total
630,853
644,119
668,942
697,547
4.3%
8.3%
1,929,427
2,030,526
5.2%
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Verdhana research
Fig. 5: Net profit – growth and remarks per company (1 of 2)
NPAT Rp bn
2Q23
3Q23
2Q24
3Q24
QoQ
YoY
9M23
9M24
YoY
Remarks
BBCA
12,660
12,230
13,997
14,198
1%
16%
36,420
41,074
13%
In-line
BBRI
13,920
14,571
13,816
15,363
11%
5%
43,993
45,065
2%
Below
BMRI
12,672
13,832
13,848
15,467
12%
12%
39,064
42,018
8%
In-line
BBNI
5,081
5,452
6,096
5,617
-8%
3%
15,753
17,039
8%
In-line
BTPS
328
251
288
218
-24%
-13%
1,004
771
-23%
Below
PNBN
1,150
676
589
930
58%
38%
2,416
2,206
-9%
Above
BDMN
690
1,053
624
877
41%
-17%
2,561
2,332
-9%
In-line
BNGA
1,652
1,669
1,726
1,687
-2%
1%
4,902
5,094
4%
Above
BTPN
656
632
697
754
8%
19%
2,094
1,994
-5%
In-line
ARTO
23
10
28
36
27%
267%
50
86
71%
Below
BRIS
1,364
1,378
2,236
1,713
-23%
24%
4,200
5,656
35%
In-line
Banks
50,195
51,754
53,945
56,859
5%
10%
152,456
163,334
7%
TLKM
6,332
6,743
5,708
5,914
4%
-12%
19,499
17,675
-9%
In-line
ISAT
979
879
1,440
1,143
-21%
30%
2,787
3,878
39%
Above
TOWR
807
866
808
842
4%
-3%
2,426
2,447
1%
Above
TBIG
357
430
381
437
15%
2%
1,118
1,167
4%
Below
MTEL
521
408
543
468
-14%
15%
1,430
1,532
7%
Below
TMT
8,996
9,326
8,880
8,804
-1%
-6%
27,260
26,700
-2%
ASII
8,730
8,242
8,392
9,998
19%
21%
25,691
25,854
1%
Above
DRMA
130
174
104
175
68%
1%
520
412
-21%
In-line
MPMX
133
157
163
114
-30%
-28%
422
441
5%
In-line
SMSM
208
265
230
274
19%
3%
695
719
4%
In-line
AUTO
369
510
539
515
-4%
1%
1,312
1,528
17%
Above
BIRD
136
108
147
173
18%
60%
367
436
19%
Above
WINS
13
27
183
95
-48%
256%
43
313
635%
Above
Auto and Transport
9,719
9,484
9,758
11,344
16%
20%
29,049
29,705
2%
UNVR
1,354
1,430
1,018
543
-47%
-62%
4,189
3,010
-28%
Below
MYOR
492
807
606
298
-51%
-63%
2,026
2,015
-1%
In-line
MLBI
254
235
239
318
33%
35%
693
763
10%
In-line
KLBF
673
536
848
573
-32%
7%
2,065
2,378
15%
Below
INDF
1,717
1,517
1,404
4,906
249%
224%
7,083
8,761
24%
Above
ICBP
1,771
1,335
1,186
4,612
289%
245%
7,060
8,149
15%
Above
SIDO
148
138
218
170
-22%
23%
587
778
33%
In-line
ROTI
70
111
71
104
47%
-6%
230
249
8%
Below
ULTJ
256
328
350
126
-64%
-62%
939
881
-6%
Below
CMRY
325
345
416
353
-15%
3%
967
1,156
20%
In-line
CLEO
70
71
105
116
11%
63%
200
336
68%
In-line
KEJU
6
17
31
47
52%
177%
61
125
106%
Above
FMCGs
5,780
5,440
5,473
11,624
112%
114%
21,910
25,592
17%
ACES
144
183
161
208
30%
14%
486
574
18%
In-line
AMRT
837
578
904
605
-33%
5%
2,190
2,399
10%
In-line
RALS
216
8
141
5
-97%
-39%
255
253
-1%
Above
MAPI
639
445
485
401
-17%
-10%
1,475
1,300
-12%
Below
MAPA
390
375
305
515
68%
37%
1,025
1,102
7%
Above
LPPF
583
- 53
300
- 4
-101%
-93%
631
622
-1%
In-line
MIDI
142
131
166
142
-14%
8%
391
467
20%
Above
ERAA
223
36
268
268
0%
640%
495
791
60%
Above
Retailers
3,174
1,703
2,731
2,139
-22%
26%
6,947
7,507
8%
GGRM
1,325
1,169
330
67
-80%
-94%
4,457
992
-78%
Below
WIIM
136
195
57
60
6%
-69%
441
208
-53%
Below
HMSP
1,590
2,455
1,070
1,908
78%
-22%
6,205
5,224
-16%
In-line
Cigarettes
3,051
3,819
1,456
2,035
40%
-47%
11,104
6,424
-42%
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Verdhana research
Fig. 6: Net profit – growth and remarks per company (2 of 2)
NPAT Rp bn
2Q23
3Q23
2Q24
3Q24
QoQ
YoY
9M23
9M24
YoY
Remarks
MIKA
222
233
312
272
-13%
17%
686
873
27%
In-line
SILO
254
356
301
321
7%
-10%
859
635
-26%
In-line
HEAL
93
146
152
125
-18%
-15%
349
468
34%
In-line
PRDA
77
87
77
79
3%
-9%
236
194
-18%
In-line
Healthcare
647
822
841
797
-5%
-3%
2,130
2,170
2%
BSDE
317
568
896
369
-59%
-35%
1,769
2,702
53%
In-line
CTRA
366
402
546
248
-55%
-38%
1,181
1,277
8%
In-line
PWON
503
388
515
816
58%
110%
1,487
1,663
12%
Below
Properties
1,186
1,359
1,957
1,433
-27%
5%
4,437
5,641
27%
HRUM
713
- 670
596
493
-17%
-174%
1,589
1,104
-30%
In-line
ADRO
6,234
5,333
6,623
6,119
-8%
15%
18,435
18,677
1%
In-line
PTBA
1,613
1,004
1,242
1,198
-4%
19%
3,779
3,230
-15%
In-line
ITMG
1,863
1,528
1,105
-
-100%
-100%
6,131
2,082
-66%
In-line
INDY
463
62
15
203
1282%
225%
1,409
536
-62%
Above
ADMR
1,181
1,344
2,173
1,275
-41%
-5%
3,796
5,288
39%
In-line
Coal
12,067
8,602
11,753
9,288
-21%
8%
35,139
30,918
-12%
INCO
1,055
812
509
257
-49%
-68%
4,397
865
-80%
Below
ANTM
227
959
1,312
651
-50%
-32%
2,849
2,201
-23%
Above
Metals
1,282
1,771
1,821
908
-50%
-49%
7,246
3,066
-58%
ESSA
13
89
170
196
16%
120%
149
528
254%
Above
MEDC
561
1,900
2,489
742
-70%
-61%
3,691
4,372
18%
In-line
AKRA
424
679
408
466
14%
-31%
1,710
1,469
-14%
Below
ELSA
135
157
260
108
-58%
-31%
407
551
36%
Above
O&G
1,133
2,825
3,326
1,513
-55%
-46%
5,957
6,921
16%
ARNA
98
109
98
113
15%
3%
353
316
-10%
In-line
AVIA
390
334
362
352
-3%
6%
1,140
1,160
2%
In-line
IMPC
92
128
118
130
10%
2%
341
397
17%
In-line
SMGR
305
848
30
218
635%
-74%
1,714
719
-58%
Below
INTP
327
569
197
621
216%
9%
1,267
1,056
-17%
In-line
Building Mat
1,212
1,987
805
1,434
78%
-28%
4,815
3,649
-24%
ASSA
18
49
57
84
47%
73%
118
213
80%
Above
ASLC
3
7
9
16
76%
134%
11
40
273%
Above
Logistics
21
55
66
100
51%
80%
129
253
96%
JSMR
651
719
1,727
953
-45%
33%
1,868
3,300
77%
Above
Infra
651
719
1,727
953
-45%
33%
1,868
3,300
77%
JPFA
332
855
814
617
-24%
-28%
937
2,096
124%
Above
CPIN
1,138
1,297
1,057
619
-41%
-52%
2,676
2,387
-11%
In-line
Poultry
1,470
2,152
1,872
1,236
-34%
-43%
3,613
4,483
24%
TAPG
175
634
596
651
9%
3%
1,103
1,617
47%
Above
LSIP
55
291
329
205
-38%
-30%
458
803
76%
In-line
AALI
143
433
271
300
11%
-31%
801
801
0%
In-line
DSNG
148
141
278
357
29%
153%
503
861
71%
In-line
CPO
520
1,499
1,473
1,513
3%
1%
2,864
4,082
43%
Total
101,104
103,316
107,885
111,979
3.8%
8.4%
316,923
323,746
2.2%
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Verdhana research
INVESTMENT RATINGS A rating of ‘Buy’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to outperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Neutral’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to perform in line with the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Reduce’, indicates that the analyst expects the stock to underperform the Benchmark over the next 12 months. A rating of ‘Suspended’, indicates that the rating, target price, and estimates have been suspended temporarily to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies. Securities and/or companies that are labelled as ‘Not Rated’ or ‘No Rating’ are not in regular research coverage. Benchmark is Indonesia Composite Index (‘IDX Composite’). A ‘Target Price’, if discussed, indicates the analyst’s forecast for the share price with a 12-month time horizon, reflecting in part of the analyst’s estimates for the company’s earnings, and may be impeded by general market and macroeconomic trends, and by other risks related to the company or the market in general.
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