ASII reported 3Q24 results, with revenue at IDR86tn (+10% y-y) and NPAT of IDR10tn (+21% y-y), as soft 4W auto performance was offset by strong contributions from fincos and United Tractors (UNTR IJ, Not rated). Associates’ income (IDR7.8tn, +7% y-y) played a crucial role in supporting the bottom line, offsetting continued challenges in the 4W segment. We believe the strong 2W segment stemmed from being a beneficiary of downtrading, and low-cost-green-car (LCGC) buyers shifting to the high-end motorcycle segment (see our channel checks in Nusantara report here).
Non-operational — q-q profit contribution:
Astra’s net profit grew from IDR8.4tn in 2Q24 to IDR10tn in 3Q24, of which we attribute some to the non-operational segment: 1) fair value of investment gain at roughly c.IDR400-500bn (GOTO IJ [Buy], HEAL IJ [Buy], etc) and 2) FX gain of IDR1.1tn. Excluding these two non-operational gains, Astra’s overall net profit remained flat q-q, but we deem that to be slightly positive given the overall weak auto market.
Results recap 3Q24:
● Auto segment: Overall auto profit declined 7% y-y, buffered by 2W profit growth of +20% y-y to IDR2tn vs 4W profit -62% y-y to IDR545bn (back to the 1Q21 level).
● Fincos: NPAT grew +11% y-y to a record-high of IDR 2.1tn, benefiting from resilient demand in vehicle financing.
● UNTR: NPAT record high was supported by overall improvement in its business segments.
● Associates' income: Record contribution at IDR2.7tn (+4% y-y) — thanks to Astra Honda Motor’s (AHM, unlisted) record profit, which in our view, was also contributed by downtrading from LCGC to high-end 2W.
Auto segment still challenging, but UNTR and fincos could still provide buffer
We believe the auto segment continues to face challenges, both in 4W and 2W. Our TP of IDR6,000 is derived from an unchanged SOTP valuation (2024F P/E of 7x), finco (target 2024F P/B of 2.2x), its listed subsidiaries that are valued using Bloomberg consensus TP discounted by 30%, toll road (NAV), and also equity investment using book value. Downside risks: 1) faster-than-expected sales of ex-Astra brands (especially China-based), 2) sluggish purchasing power that is hurting local sales, 3) failure to maximize cash utilization, and 4) margin pressure from the auto value chain.
Fig. 1: Astra results 9M24
ASII IJ IDRbn
2Q23
3Q23
2Q24
3Q24
qoq%
yoy%
9M23
9M24
yoy%
% Ours
% Cons
Revenue
79,413
78,520
78,758
86,362
10%
10%
240,913
246,329
2.2%
79%
80%
Auto
31,533
33,438
30,811
34,525
12%
3.3%
99,162
99,529
0.4%
UNTR
33,788
28,921
32,102
35,044
9.2%
21%
97,598
99,558
2.0%
AALI
4,630
6,291
5,513
5,974
8.4%
-5.0%
15,682
16,287
3.9%
Finco
7,352
7,730
8,136
8,592
5.6%
11%
21,983
24,504
11%
Others
2,110
2,140
2,196
2,227
1.4%
4.1%
6,488
6,451
-0.6%
GP
18,919
16,954
18,015
19,052
5.8%
12%
53,587
54,652
2.0%
76%
81%
Associates' income
2,136
2,634
2,400
2,749
15%
4.4%
7,249
7,758
7.0%
EBIT
11,940
9,713
10,694
10,924
2.2%
12%
32,439
31,772
-2.1%
83%
84%
Auto
674
874
313
515
65%
-41%
2,507
1,348
-46%
UNTR
8,446
5,545
7,116
7,147
0.4%
29%
21,200
20,856
-1.6%
AALI
43
67
62
69
11%
3.0%
136
159
17%
Finco
2,041
2,128
2,212
2,231
0.9%
4.8%
6,016
6,643
10%
Others
736
1,099
991
962
-2.9%
-12%
2,580
2,766
7.2%
EBITDA
15,631
13,556
15,341
15,713
2%
16%
43,599
45,770
5.0%
89%
89%
NPATMI
8,730
8,242
8,392
9,998
19%
21%
25,691
25,854
0.6%
83%
86%
Auto
2,667
3,474
2,783
2,964
6.5%
-15%
9,167
8,497
-7.3%
UNTR
3,614
2,545
3,057
3,723
22%
46%
9,431
9,571
1.5%
AALI
114
345
215
239
11%
-31%
638
638
0.0%
Finco
1,967
2,031
2,030
2,114
4.1%
4.1%
5,857
6,230
6.4%
Others
368
(153)
307
958
212%
-726%
598
918
54%
Margins %
2Q23
3Q23
2Q24
3Q24
9M23
9M24
GP
24%
22%
23%
22%
22%
22%
Auto
11%
11%
11%
11%
11%
11%
UNTR
30%
24%
27%
25%
26%
26%
AALI
11%
15%
13%
12%
12%
12%
Finco
55%
56%
53%
55%
55%
55%
EBIT %
15%
12%
14%
13%
13%
13%
Auto
2.1%
2.6%
1.0%
1.5%
2.5%
1.4%
UNTR
25%
19%
22%
20%
22%
21%
AALI
0.9%
1.1%
1.1%
1.2%
0.9%
1.0%
Finco
28%
28%
27%
26%
27%
27%
NP
11%
10%
11%
12%
11%
10%
Source: Company data, Verdhana research
Fig. 2: Auto results’ breakdown
Autos segment - Rp bn
2Q23
3Q23
2Q24
3Q24
qoq%
yoy%
9M23
9M24
yoy%
Total autos
31,533
33,438
30,811
34,525
12%
3.3%
99,162
99,529
0.4%
4W
18,586
21,030
18,649
20,715
11%
-1.5%
60,465
59,717
-1.2%
2W
8,092
7,755
7,296
8,631
18%
11.3%
24,186
24,882
2.9%
Parts
4,855
4,653
4,866
5,179
6.4%
11.3%
14,512
14,929
2.9%
Fincos
7,352
7,730
8,136
8,592
6%
11.2%
21,983
24,504
11%
NPAT - total
2,667
3,474
2,783
2,964
6.5%
-14.7%
9,167
8,497
-7.3%
4W
1,032
1,424
955
545
-43%
-62%
3,667
2,390
-35%
2W
1,290
1,692
1,562
2,027
30%
20%
4,453
5,045
13%
Parts
344
358
266
391
47%
9.5%
1,048
1,062
1.4%
Fincos
1,967
2,031
2,030
2,114
4.1%
4.1%
5,857
6,230
6.4%
NPM - autos
8.5%
10.4%
9.0%
8.6%
9.2%
8.5%
4W
5.6%
6.8%
5.1%
2.6%
6.1%
4.0%
2W
16%
22%
21%
23%
18%
20%
Parts
7.1%
7.7%
5.5%
7.6%
7.2%
7.1%
Fincos
27%
26%
25%
25%
26.6%
25.4%
Associates income
2,136
2,634
2,400
2,749
15%
4.4%
7,249
7,758
7.0%
AHM - 2W (50% owned)
Revenues
21,566
23,608
21,982
26,542
21%
12%
71,515
73,144
2.3%
NPAT
2,117
2,608
2,460
3,049
24%
17%
7,025
7,900
12%
NPM %
10%
11%
11%
11%
9.8%
10.8%
ASII portion
1,078
1,269
1,277
1,497
17%
18.0%
3,464
3,891
12%
ADM - 4W (32% owned)
Revenues
16,946
19,150
14,811
17,067
15.2%
-11%
58,435
47,820
-18%
NPAT
278
1,082
919
822
-11%
-24%
2,278
2,618
15%
NPM %
1.6%
5.7%
6.2%
4.8%
3.9%
5.5%
ASII portion
92
332
272
272
0%
-18%
722
842
17%
ADM + AHM profit
1,170
1,601
1,549
1,769
14.2%
10%
4,186
4,733
13%
ADM + AHM % of asso inc
55%
61%
65%
64%
58%
61%
Source: Company data, Verdhana research
Fig. 3: Growth and margins
Source: Company data, Verdhana research
Fig. 4: Segment breakdown – revenue, EBIT and NPAT; driven by record-high profit in UNTR and fincos
Source: Company data, Verdhana research
Fig. 5: Profit trend in autos and fincos: 2W record high while 4W still faces challenges; 4W profit back to 1Q21 level
Source: Company data, Verdhana research
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